Freddy Sanchez

Most fans prefer to lose via the blowout. They argue, and I agree, that it is less painful to lose when you know the outcome of the game in the fourth inning. In the past twenty-five Twins’ losses only three have been by more than five runs. At least lately, when the Twins lose they lose because of one or two malfunctioning pieces.

If one of these issues were addressed, could the Twins find themselves with a playoff-caliber team? And if so, what one piece are they missing?

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Twins are set in the outfield. With Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, and Jason Kubel, our three “starters” are pretty darn solid. All three have on-base-percentages higher than .360 and both Cuddyer and Kubela have double-digit home run totals. These players are good, but I’m not going to pretend that there aren’t problems. (Delmon Young being given regular starts as one example, and Carlos Gomez continually riding the pine as another.)

There is an abundance of outfielders in Minnesota, so adding another either via free agency or trade would be pointless.

Our starting pitchers have also smoothed out after a rough start. Scott Baker is looking like the ace he was supposed to be, while Nick Blackburn has done a fine job being an innings-eater. He has the most innings of anyone on the Twins’ staff and boasts two complete games (although one was less desirable than the other). Both Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey have also looked great this year, with Slowey near the top of the American League in wins.

Francisco Liriano is the problem. He has consistently had one problematic inning in his starts, and many (including me) have argued that a temporary move to the bullpen is in order.

All of these starting pitchers are under 27 years old. The Twins could make a move for a guy like 31-year old Brad Penny, which would allow for both a veteran presence on the team as well as make it possible for a smooth transition to the bullpen for Liriano. On the other hand, the asking price for Penny (who would only be a half-year rental) would probably be too steep.

Brad Penny

The corner infield is set for this year. Justin Morneau is continuing to do what he does best, being one of the top first basemen considered for the nearing All-Star game. Joe Crede has done a super job defensively while sporting a dismal on-base-percentage. His back has held out so far, though, and few Twins fan could ask for more than what he has done.

The middle infield could use an upgrade. Matt Tolbert has assumed the role at second base and has almost been worse offensively than Alexi Casilla. In his 31 games at second this year, though, Tolbert has committed just one error and has great speed, but watching him go hitless night-after-night is painful, to say the least.

Brendan Harris has been a surprise this year for the Twins, as he is hitting a decent .290/.336/.394. He has almost zero power, but is getting the job done both offensively and defensively. If the Twins were to make a move it would be for a second baseman. Freddy Sanchez’s name has been connected to Minnesota, and with due reason. Sanchez is 31 years old and has a contract that expires after this year, but he would bring at least one compensatory draft pick to the Twins in 2010 and would be one of the best at second base both offensively and defensively.

Although they started the season on a less-than-stellar note, the bullpen has seen three pitchers step up to pull themselves back to respectability: R.A. Dickey, Matt Guerrier, and Jose Mijares. The Twins will occasionally have to put other relievers on the mound, but Bobby Keppel has shown a flash of brilliance with his great debut (with the Twins, not his major-league debut) against the Cardinals yesterday. He mopped up Slowey’s sub-par start by providing four innings of two-hit ball. (Also: Joe Nathan.)

Trading for a bullpen arm isn’t a good idea, as Dan Wade and Josh Johnson said a few days ago via their respective Twitter accounts. From @JoshsThoughts: “Not to mention that bullpen arms are generally a high commodity meaning they will ultimately cost the most. No way, Jose!” From @Dwade: “Trading for bullpen help is a bad idea generally speaking; too much uncertainty. Just look at Aardsma in Seattle!”

The only other position that could be addressed is a utility infielder, but Nick Punto has that market cornered, whether we like it or not.

If I had my way, the Twins would either trade for a middle infielder (preferably Sanchez) or sit tight with what they have. Adding anything else in any other positions would either be too expensive or create more problems than they would solve.

What do you think? As the Hot Stove League nears it’s final month, what should the Twins do? How far away from a World Series run are the Twins, and what should they address?

Jason Kubel

The fact of the matter is that the Twins should never have had the DH problem that has plagued them over the last few years.

Imagine the Twins lineup in 2006, but instead of the unholy platoon of Jason Tyner, Rondell White, Phil Nevin, and Ruben Sierra, the Twins had simply kept David Ortiz. Yes, they made the playoffs anyway, but Ortiz’s 1049 OPS would have been a nice bonus.

The Twins gave up on Ortiz and paid dearly for it. Not only did Ortiz turn into the preeminent DH of the time, but the Twins haven’t found a league average replacement for him.

Until this season.

Jason Kubel was one of just four players to earn eligibility at the DH position, and was fifth among all designated hitters in OPS. He hit just three home runs fewer than Ortiz, led all designated hitters in triples, and was generally near average in most other categories.

So Jason Kubel has finally ended Ortiz’s faux-curse of the Twins’ DHs, right? So why is so much ink being spilled on why the Twins should or should not trade Jason Kubel?

The first camp, captained by Andrew Kneeland, is more than willing to sell high on Kubel. Certainly there is wisdom here, sell high after Kubel’s biggest HR year, move Cuddyer to DH, and leave the outfield as it was for most of the end of the season.

Not only does this strategy solve the the Twins’ too many outfielders-too few positions problem, but Kubel would probably bring back a reasonable player in return. If he was packaged with a starter, he might even help solve the Twins’ third base vacancy.

The other side of the issue, as espoused by Nick Nelson, sees in Kubel much of what the Twins gave up in Ortiz. Not necessarily a perennial MVP candidate in the making, but a young hitter that has shown a good amount of power. Kubel was second on the Twins in home runs, second in triples, third in RBI, and fourth in OPS.

Losing that production alone would be hard for this team, let alone the potential he might have.

While there is no certainty in the belief that Kubel’s best years are ahead of him, there is a good chance that this is the case. Another factor to consider is that Kubel is one of a handful of Twins’ who will get a raise through arbitration this year.

The Twins should learn from the Ortiz debacle and should not release Kubel. Then again, no one is advocating that, thankfully.

Jason Kubel

The Twins shouldn’t give away Kubel because they can. Yes, they have enough warm bodies, but his production is good enough to have in the lineup on a daily basis, even if he never hits the 40 home runs many Twins  fans expect that he could.

However, if Kubel is named as part of a package deal for a player like Adrian Beltre, Brian Roberts, or Garrett Atkins, the Twins should be more than willing to part with him. Dustin Martin may well become a better hitter as Kubel is now, and he’ll be cheaper and younger when he gets to the majors. In the mean time, Kubel can be replaced at DH by Delmon Young and the Twins don’t miss a beat.

While I don’t see Kubel becoming nearly as good as Ortiz (Kubel never hit more than 17 home runs in the minors, while Ortiz frequently hit over that and maxed out at 30), he could certainly be a piece of a playoff team in the future. So, while I think trading Kubel is a fine solution to a number of the Twins problems, I don’t see him being a guy the Twins should be looking to lose for 30 cents on the dollar.