Delmon Young: The Awakening?

Posted: 9th May 2010 by David in Uncategorized
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In spring training, much was made about Delmon Young reporting to camp 30-35 pounds lighter.  Word was that his attitude had improved as well, and all in all no one seemed the least bit concerned that the Twins’ outfield defense figured to be significantly weakened with Young taking over daily duties in left and Denard Span replacing the offensively inept but defensively stupendous Carlos Gomez.  Young started horribly in 2009 but finished superbly.  Through the end of June, Young had failed to post a wOBA above .290 for any month.  While some speculation was fair that he was being affected by the death of his mother, other speculation was equally fair that the Twins would be lucky if Young ever became a league-average player.   After all, 2009 would see Young eclipse 1800 career plate appearances.  Midway through last season, in my first post on this blog, I wrote that, “At 1600 career at-bats, we may be looking at all we’re going to get with Delmon Young,” and that the Twins would be better off going with Carlos Gomez on a daily basis, even before factoring in Gomez’s vastly superior defense.

Young proceeded to turn his game around; his monthly wOBA from July through September/October was .358, .328, and .375.  That hot finish and the good news regarding Young’s weight and attitude this spring had many fans convinced that Young would finally make good on ancient scouting projections that he would be a star player.  Others, such as myself, were skeptical but naturally hopeful.

From just my own untrained observation, I think it’s fair to say that Young is a different looking player this year.  While he still makes the occasional maddening gaffe in left field, he’s also turned in a few stellar plays that he certainly would not have made with last season’s extra poundage.  So far, Young’s UZR score is a very encouraging 1.3, and his UZR/150 is an acceptable -.6.   Of course, it’s far too early in the season to know whether this is an actual improvement or simply the result of a small sample of plays (UZR scores are typically only deemed “reliable” after three years of data (on this note, if anyone is a regression expert and wants to weigh in, please do)).  Still, my own observation of Young in left coupled with these early statistical returns makes me think he actually has turned a corner defensively.

He has similarly shown improvement on offense.  Perhaps the most discouraging aspect of Young’s game since arriving in Minnesota had been the lack of any sign of power.  His isolated power (ISO) in 2008 was a paltry .115.  In 2009, it was better at .142, but it was still not anywhere close to the .180 or better that you’d want from a power hitter.  This season, Young’s ISO stands at .167, with 3 homers and 4 doubles already and a .423 slugging percentage.  These numbers aren’t spectacular, but they’re extremely encouraging for two reasons.  First, Young is a notoriously slow starter.  If he is to get hot in July and August, we might see some substantial offensive performance from the seventh spot in the order (and from the right side of the plate).  Second, Young’s early numbers have been deflated by bad luck, as his BABIP stands at a mere .250, or 8% less than his career average.  Basically, Young has had an inordinate number of batted balls turn into outs.  He should only see his average on balls in play increase, and when that starts to happen, his other numbers should improve.

Strictly relying on a BABIP turnaround is rather shallow analysis, though, because other factors might reveal that a player is making their own bad luck – they might be swinging at more bad pitches, for instance, or just be making poor contact.  In Young’s case, the first is not true, but the second is.  Young’s plate discipline and bat control are markedly better this year.  He is swinging at 37% of pitches outside the strike zone – a high number, but lower than his career rate of 40%.  He is swinging at 74% of pitches within the strike zone, down from a career rate of 82%.  Most encouragingly, his contact percentage outside the zone has skyrocketed from a career rate of 55% to 70%.  Overall, his swing percentage is 55%, down from his career average of 61%.  All in all, this has translated in a strikeout rate that has plummeted from a career mark of 19.6% to 11.5%, and a walk rate that has more than doubled from 4.2% to 9.1%.  The only part of Young’s game that remains problematic is the quality of his contact.  While he has hit a greater percentage of flyballs than his career percentage, his line drive rate currently sits at 14%, and his groundball rate is 52% – downright ghastly for a power hitter.  In sum, Young’s low BABIP is not due to poor discipline on his part – his early numbers indicate a hitter that is remarkably more selective and patient than in years past.  However, that by itself is not enough to guarantee a big offensive turnaround.  If Young is going to become a good offensive player, he has to start making better contact and hitting more balls in the air.

Overall, the pieces seem to be falling into place for Young, at least so far as the early numbers indicate.  While I’m typically skeptical of such a small sample of numbers, there are reasons to think that these are not simply anomalies of a small sample.  Young is physically in the best shape we’ve ever seen him; the effects have been apparent from watching him run the bases and field flyballs.  Furthermore, his average on balls in play is low enough to think that his numbers should, if anything, improve rather regress, and his reputation as a strong finisher gives further reason for optimism.  Finally, his plate discipline numbers indicate a hitter who has reformed his old bad habits and is waiting for his pitch.  If he can making good on that pitch and change out some of those grounders for liners or flyballs, we might finally see Delmon Young make good on that nebulous “promise” we’ve all been hearing about for two years.

Toolbox: For those curious, I’m including a brief description of the statistics I use and a link to a better explanation.

wOBA:  Basically, this is super-duper-OPS.  It assigns value to a particular offensive event by estimating the run expectancy of the event compared to the run expectancy of making an out.  It was designed to look similar to OBP.  A .330 wOBA is approximately league average.  If you’re curious/skeptical, the top five career wOBA leaders are Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, and Jimmie Foxx.

UZR:  The estimated runs a player saves on defense, considering range, arm, errors, and ability to turn a double play.  That’s the extent of my understanding, but that’s the gist.

UZR/150:  Basically an estimate of a player’s UZR performance over a 150 game period.

Isolated Power (ISO):  A measure of a player’s raw power, most typically arrived at by subtracting batting average (which does not account for extra bases) from slugging percentage.  This effectively removes all singles from a player’s slugging percentage and thereby “isolates” their power.  There is also a much more complicated way to calculate ISO.

Batting average on balls in play (BABIP):  The percentage of all non-homer fair balls off a player’s bat.  The league average for BABIP is typically around .290-.300.  It is more constant for pitchers than it is for batters (for instance, Joe Mauer’s BABIP is typically above .340, due to his ability to hit line drives, which are much harder to convert into outs than ground balls or flyballs).

Please, Stop the Insanity

Posted: 14th March 2010 by David in Uncategorized
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It strikes me as rude to use a blog just to tear a journalist down. Typically, I don’t get too annoyed with what paid journalists write, or for that matter, what paid broadcasters say. A lot of times, you can tell that certain professionals parrot the company line, but in all honesty, this is part of their job. A baseball beat writer’s primary concern is getting information out to fans that would otherwise be largely unavailable; as such, sometimes they can’t be sounding the truth trumpet that Orlando Cabrera is a terrible number 2 hitter, or that Ron Gardenhire’s in-game management is at times extraordinarily questionable. These people are paid to do a job. Although I like to think that I generally have an idea of what I’m talking about, I blog part time while I go to school all the time.* As such, I try not to question reporters and beat writers too much, but would rather give them the benefit of the doubt on their decisions about what to report and how to report it.

Columnists have a different job than beat writers. Their job is to offer perspective – sometimes unpopular perspective. There is immense value in such an endeavor, and it would strike just about anyone as a gross violation of “freedom of the press” to say that a columnist should censor his or her opinions on account of offending or upsetting people.

While columnists have an admirable job to do and should do so fearlessly, they should also do so responsibly. Offering opinions merely to get attention moves opinion out of the sacred halls of dynamic journalism into the burlesque of cheap tricks. Unfortunately, the fury of discussion surrounding the possibility of trading Joe Mauer has been launched by nothing more than a sham story by our very own Jim Souhan.

Ever since Souhan penned his piece, the speculation regarding a possible Mauer trade has been rampant. (Seriously, look at how many of those articles link back just to Souhan’s article.) I’m all for discussing options and debating whether or not it’s advantageous to keep Mauer. In fact, that story was already published by Souhan’s employer, and it was a valid, well-written story.

This brings me to my first problem with Souhan’s piece. While it has launched a fresh wave of discussion, its perspective is decidedly stale.  This isn’t anything Twins fans haven’t been thinking in one form or another ever since it became apparent last year that Mauer was going to own the greatest season by a catcher in the history of the universe. The gist of the point about possibly trading Mauer is this:  “If Mauer doesn’t sign, he might leave as a free agent.  If he leaves as a free agent, all the Twins get back is two measly draft picks. They would probably have to trade him to get maximum value back.”  Duh.  We’ve been there.  We’ve done that.

But hey, maybe there’s some new wrinkle in the story.  It’s quite possible that Souhan has inside information that warrants opening up the discussion again.  That’s good reporting.  And hey, if they have to trade him, people should talk about it and see what they expect back from losing their beloved super-duper-star.

This brings me to my second problem with the piece:  it makes suggestions that are entirely unfounded, unless of course you just trust Souhan’s word rather than loads of evidence suggesting that there’s not much more to this story than idle speculation.  Think about it.  Souhan could have written a glowing column about how great life will be when these deliberate, careful, and fair negotiations finally result in a long contract for one of baseball’s best two players. And that column would have been based on as much fact (aside from a passing reference to conversation with a variety of people) and new news as the one he ended up writing. But of course, this column generates more buzz and gets yourself linked all over the internet, so hey, why not**?

This brings me to my third problem with this piece:  it is misleadingly narrow in its focus.  In both his column about trading Mauer and another column just written this morning, Souhan has made the claim that the Twins have offered around $20 million per year and that Mauer is cool to this number.  Of course, this is based on the always ambiguous “talking with a variety of people,” not far from the lovely hot stove “source close with the club” that yields a reliable story about one time in every fifty reports. And of course, this number doesn’t take into account that number of years could well be holding up the talks more than just the average yearly salary.

Finally, my biggest problem with this piece was that, other than “talks with a variety of people,” there is absolutely no concrete evidence demonstrating that talks are going badly other than speculation that this deal would have been done sooner. In fact, all available evidence suggests, at the very least, the talks are not going badly. Everyone remembers the Santana debacle. By the middle of winter, it was crystal clear that the sides would not be able to agree, and the Twins immediately began shopping Santana.  ESPN’s hot stove immediately incinerated, rumors flew from multiple sources, and the trade ended up happening well-before spring training, in part because of Santana’s self-imposed deadline to get a deal done, and in part because of the humongous distraction the situation would cause in spring training. The Twins had every bit as much reason to keep those problems quiet, but the bottom line is that when things go badly, teams hear about it and start talking.  We have had none of that.

The situation today is entirely similar and entirely different. Santana and Mauer are both once-in-a-generation talents.  Santana was in his prime; Mauer is just entering his prime.  Both situations involve the player’s contract year.  In both situations, the Twins realistically can’t afford to let the player walk at the end of the year for two draft picks.  It is simply unimaginable that the Twins plan on going through a full season with the Mauer distraction, only to lose him for a pittance at the end of the year, so if talks have really stalled, one would think they would be looking at a trade.  There has been no indication from any source, other than Souhan, that these talks have stalled and the Twins might be forced to look into trading Mauer. It is just not believable that there is any problem with these talks other than that they might be going slowly.

Furthermore, the story overlooks the overall context of the Twins’ situation. Going into the offseason, Mauer stated that he would let the contract happen when it happened, and that he did not want to rush the Twins into signing him; he was perfectly happy to let them get other business in order before negotiating a contract.  The Twins, for their part, are notoriously slow negotiators who have been reported to be gun shy about signing free agents long term because of Mauer’s looming contract.  They seemingly take such a deliberate approach in an effort to maximize value; they allow the market to determine appropriate prices for players, and then they pounce when they can get the price they want.  Look no farther than the Thome and Hudson signings this winter.  What we can reasonably infer from these factors is:

1) The Twins have taken care of other business before signing Mauer by trading for JJ Hardy, re-signing Carl Pavano, signing Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson, taking care of contracts for all arbitration-eligible players, and buying out arbitration for Nick Blackburn and Denard Span.  It’s not like the Twins have devoted 4 months entirely to Joe Mauer.

2) The Twins, at least for my money, seem to be locking down long-term costs by buying out arbitration of key players before they sign Mauer. This makes sense because they have been reported as being concerned with their long-term budget because of Mauer’s upcoming contract extension.

3) Given how slowly the Twins typically negotiate (Crede and Kyle Gibson last year, Hudson and Thome this year), it really is not that surprising that talks revolving around what will be the biggest contract in team history (and one of the biggest in baseball) have been drawn out.

What is really unfortunate is that the Twins and Mauer have seemingly done everything they can to keep this situation from becoming a distraction.  This of course does not mean that people can’t talk about what kind of contract would be appropriate, or what type of return the Twins should expect if they end up having to trade Mauer.  (To this point, Souhan’s suggestion that the Twins trade for a closer is laughably short sighted.)  But when the most visible sports columnist in the Twin Cities’ largest newspaper starts dropping hints that the time might be right to trade Mauer because talks are apparently not going well, seemingly based on little more than casual speculation and despite significant evidence to the contrary, it’s time to call him on it and move the discussion along.

Jarrod Washburn. Really? REALLY?

Posted: 9th January 2010 by David in Uncategorized
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The word from LaVelle E. Neal of the Star Tribune is that the Twins have, in fact, offered Jarrod Washburn a one year deal worth $5 million.  During the 2008 season, the Twins were rumored to be interested in acquiring Washburn from the Seattle Mariners, but, when the Mariners’ asking price was too high, the Twins backed off.  Now, at least, it seems that Washburn is doing what the Mariners did in 2008:  saving the Twins from themselves.  The bottom line is that, on its face, this is a highly questionable move by a front office that had seemed to be moving in the right direction since the 2009 trade deadline.  The problems with Washburn have been well-documented, but this story worked me into such a lather that I can’t help myself.

I had a similar reaction when I found out the Twins had, in fact, offered him $5 million. At least, my face looked the same. He's probably happier here than I was.

Washburn originally started his career with the Angels.  He had a breakout year in 2002, hurling 206 innings while going 18-6 with a 3.15 ERA.  He compiled 139 strikeouts and walked only 59 batters, leading to a 3.71 FIP that suggested that, while he wasn’t quite as good as a 3.15 ERA, it wasn’t a totally ridiculous result of Washburn’s performance.  Unfortunately, other than his very successful 2002 campaign, Washburn has never posted a FIP lower than 4.35, and has a career 4.60 FIP, which means that, all things being equal (fair defense, fair luck, fair home run rate), you can expect Washburn to give you an ERA between 4.40 and 4.80.  Definitely, a club could do worse.

The problem with Washburn is that he is extremely reliant on his defense.  Striking out a modest 5.33 batters per nine innings, Washburn also walks 2.75 batters per nine innings; basically, for every two strikeouts Washburn notches, he shoots himself in the foot with a walk.  Given those ratios, his defense has to be crisp for him to be effective.  Witness the first half of his season last year in Seattle, where, playing in front of one of the best defenses imaginable, Washburn posted a glistening 2.64 ERA.  The importance of defense to Washburn is doubly important because he gives up a hefty amount of line drives (20% of all balls in play) and a fair amount of fly balls (42% of all balls in play).  Basically, almost 2/3 of the time a batter puts a ball in play, it’s in the air and quite possibly hit pretty hard.  Without a good defense, Washburn is going to be very susceptible to having a lot of men on base and possibly giving up a lot of extra base hits.

This isn’t to say he’s worthless.  His career 4.60 FIP is nothing to be ashamed of, especially considering the fact that Washburn routinely throws 150-190 innings.  Also, Seattle shows that, given the right circumstances, he can be very successful.  With someone like Franklin “Death to Flying Things” Gutierrez prowling center field, a team could make the most of Washburn’s talents.  The Twins are not a team like that.  With Carlos Gomez gone to Milwaukee and Denard Span moved to center field, the Twins’ defense in center figures to be a bit worse than it was last year.  Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer are just plain poor in the corners.  Both have cannons for arms, but neither can cover much ground.  Contrary to what happened in Seattle, Washburn signing on with the Twins would make his weaknesses glaringly apparent.  Factor in the fact that he’s 35 and unlikely to see a sudden improvement in skills, and it’s hard to see why the Twins are making the offer they are.

There are, of course, circumstances that could make the Twins’ interest a bit more understandable.  With a Washburn signing, the Twins would have a glut of potential starters and would seem even more likely to deal one of their arms, perhaps for a third baseman or second baseman.  Absent such a deal (and there has been little indication that such a trade may be imminent), the move just does not make sense.  Neal noted in his initial Washburn post that a Twins official commented that Brian Duensing might be better now than Washburn is.  In that case, offering five million dollars for a pitcher of comparable abilities to an in-house option is just inexplicable.  There have been indications that the Twins don’t want to rely on inexperienced starters in the event that one of their pitchers goes down this year (like Slowey and Perkins did last year, leading to a parade of Anthony Swarzak, Jeff Manship, R.A. Dickey, an ineffective Francisco Liriano, and finally Duensing).  Fair enough, but this reasoning is hard to rationalize when you consider that the Twins really have NO option at third base or second base, depending on where Nick Punto plays.

While having a contingent plan for pitchers is nice and all, addressing a gaping hole is a higher priority.   (Note:  I have expressed optimism about Danny Valencia, but I think it’s fair to assume he’s not going to be ready right out of spring training.) There have been ample opportunities to address third base:  Troy Glaus, Placido Polanco, and Mark DeRosa have all signed for extremely reasonable salaries (Glaus signing for a surprisingly low $2.5 million, Polanco getting a nice three-year deal, and DeRosa getting an absolutely fair and reasonable deal from the Giants).  It’s very hard to understand why the Twins would continue to let such reasonably-priced options sign with other clubs and focus instead on paying $5 million for an aging pitcher who might be a nice safety net, but is not absolutely necessary.

World Series Odds

Posted: 8th January 2010 by sbn in Uncategorized
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While all the recent talk around MLB centers on Mark McGwire and steroids, it’s easy to forget that Spring Training is creeping up.

Cactus League play begins on March 3 and Grapefruit League starts a day before that.

This is a good time to look at the future baseball odds to win World Series that sportsbook currently have posted.

New York Yankees

When we last left MLB, the New York Yankees were hoisting their 27th World Series title.

The “Evil Empire” will enter the 2010 season as defending champions and as a matter of fact, the Yanks are odds-on favorites to repeat at +300.

The Bronx Bombers’ roster will look a little different going into the season as 2009 World Series MVP Hideki Matsui migrated west to the Los Angeles Angels and his place in the lineup, as it stands, will be taken by Nick Johnson, according to an mlb.com report.

The Pinstripes re-signed southpaw Andy Pettitte to a one-year deal and dealt outfielder Melky Cabrera and pitchers Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino along with some cash to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for righty Javier Vazquez and lefty Boone Logan, who was subsequently signed for one year.

In Vazquez’s last 16 starts last season, the Braves went 12-4.

Philadelphia Phillies

On first glance, the fact that the Phillies traded away pitcher Cliff Lee to Seattle doesn’t make sense, as Lee went 13-4 (including the playoffs) after joining the Phillies from Cleveland in late-July.

In the postseason Lee went 4-0 with an ERA of 1.56 and he was on the mound for both of Philadelphia’s World Series victories.

But when you factor in that Philadelphia added Roy Halladay to its rotation, there is logic behind the Lee deal.

Doc Halladay started 32 games for the Toronto Blue Jays last year and had a record of 17-10 with an ERA of 2.79 and will be a welcome addition to the Phillies’ pitching staff.

Philly is listed at +600 to win this year’s World Series and if it does, it would be its second title in three years.

New York Mets

The New York Mets fell well short of expectations last season, finishing with a record of 70-92 so there was a need to bolster the roster with the 2010 season approaching.

While the Yankees are the ones that usually make the big splashes in free agency, the Mets one-upped their cross-town rivals this offseason, in terms of big-name signings, when they inked former Boston Red Sox leftfielder Jason Bay to a four-year deal.

The Mets are hoping that Bay will be a big piece of the puzzle in their pursuit of the NL East title and hopefully, a World Series.

The Metropolitans are listed at +1900 to win it all in 2010.

Seattle Mariners

Despite not making the playoffs last year, the Seattle Mariners still had a relatively successful season, going 85-77.

If its offseason is any indication of how its regular season will be, Seattle should make the playoffs or better.

As mentioned, the club traded for Philly’s playoff ace Cliff Lee and it did a number of other things to improve.

The Mariners plucked 3B Chone Figgins away from the division rival Los Angeles Angels; re-signed Ken Griffey Jr. to a one-year deal and extended young ace Felix Hernandez’s deal by five years.

The only move that can be considered something of a head-scratcher is the trade for volatile Chicago Cubs outfielder Milton Bradley.

Seattle is listed at +1600 to win the World Series in MLB futures betting.

Spring Training will be starting up again soon and shortly after that, the start of another MLB season.

Learn about online sports betting here.

Quick note: Twins Tender Lots of Contracts

Posted: 13th December 2009 by David in Roster
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The Twins will tender contracts to all 30 unsigned players on the 40 man roster.  Some of those names aren’t surprising; the Twins clearly weren’t going to give up on Delmon Young after his monster September and the Carlos Gomez trade.  Brendan Harris, despite maybe not being in the manager’s favor, is plenty valuable as a bench bat/utility player.  I’m also not surprised that the Twins are bringing back Matt Guerrier and Francisco Liriano.  What is somewhat surprising, however, is that they tendered Jesse Crain. Crain certainly showed a lot of promise toward the end of last year, but the fact remains that the bullpen is crowded.  The following pitchers certainly have entrenched roles with the club:

Starters:  Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn

Relievers:  Joe Nathan, Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain

The Twins also have a number of pitchers who certainly have, at one time or another, showed potential to be a big league contributor:

Starters:  Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins

Relievers:  Pat Neshek, Jeff Manship (not quite sure where to put him.)

And finally, the Twins have Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney in the minors, two pitchers who have put up very solid relief numbers and certainly could be ready to pitch in the big leagues this year.  In all, the Twins have two or three spots to be had amongst 8 pitchers who probably would get a shot with a major league club in the near future (four starters for one spot; four relievers and four starters for two or three bullpen spots).   Consider also that the Twins have stocked up on pitchers from the last draft, and it seems like this club has quite the stash of capable/promising young arms.

After the conclusion of the winter meetings, popular speculation was that the Twins very well could be done making any big moves.  With the Pavano signing, the Hardy trade, arbitration to a number of players, and the looming Joe Mauer extension, the Twins look like they may be taking on a $90+ million payroll next year.  Further, the free agent options are looking expensive; reports are that Adrian Beltre is seeking a 5 year, $65 million contract, and that Mark DeRosa is looking for 3 years at $27 million.  The market also may push Beltre’s and DeRosa’s demands back down to earth.  However, it certainly looks unlikely that the Twins will be offering up the kind of moneythat would push next year’s payroll near $100 million (not that I’d be upset about this).

The speculation here is that the Twins are looking to make a trade.  This isn’t based on some insider tip; it just seems to me that the Twins have such a surplus of young pitching that at least a few arms are expendable.  Given that most teams are always looking for pitching, why wouldn’t the Twins be looking to include these guys in a deal?  Thoughts?

Pavano to Return to Twins

Posted: 8th December 2009 by David in Uncategorized
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The word in the Twins’ blogotwittersphere (mainly via LaVelle E. Neal III) is that Carl Pavano will accept the Twins’ offer of arbitration and return with the club next season.  Ed Price of FanHouse.com reports that Pavano could make $7 million or more.  This is not all that surprising given that Pavano is still fighting the stigma of 4 lost years in hell…er…New York and has expressed a desire to return to the Twins.

When the Twins acquired Pavano last year, too many observations focused on his bloated ERA.  Of course, focus on ERA ignores the fact that Pavano had inordinately bad luck pitching in Cleveland as Cleveland’s defensive efficiency was well-below league average.  For his career, Pavano has a 4.44 ERA and a 4.17 FIP; his poor ERA last year undoubtedly has inflated his career total.  He showed down the stretch last year and in the post season that he has good enough stuff to make an impact for the Twins.  The biggest issue of course is his health, but by accepting arbitration and signing a one year contract, this risk is practically neutralized for the Twins.

Pavano is an effective if unspectacular pitcher.  Last year he struck out 6.64 batters per nine innings while walking only 1.76 batters per nine for a very solid 3.77 K/BB ratio.  On a club that has many flyball-prone pitchers, Pavano actually induces many more ground balls than flyballs, which keeps his home run totals reasonable despite having a rather hefty 10% of all flyballs leave the park.  Perhaps most importantly, he pitched nearly 200 innings and did not show any signs of injury problems, other than slight fatigue as he approached 200 innings.  In short, if the Twins get what they’re hoping for, they’ll probably get 180-200 innings of of 3.9-4.5 ERA pitching with about 20 or so home runs surrendered, good control and a modest strikeout rate.  Pavano should be helped by the addition of JJ Hardy at short more than most Twins pitchers due to his high groundball/flyball ratio.

So far, so good for the Twins this offseason.  They’ve unclogged the outfield jam, upgraded at shortstop, and signed a quality veteran pitcher. Getting a quality “ace” caliber pitcher would be ideal, but at this point it’s probably more reasonable for fans to hope for an Adrian Beltre, Felipe Lopez or Orlando Hudson signing.  (Of course, I won’t fault anyone for dreaming of a trade for Josh Johnson.)  As I’ve stated, my preference is Hudson; his solid OBP would probably be more valuable to the Twins than most, given that he’d undoubtedly be hitting between OBP machine Denard Span and in front of one of the top hitters in the American League, Joe Mauer.

In short, the Pavano signing is a good, solid, but unexciting move for the Twins.  They solidify their rotation with a quality arm at a marginal risk for next year. Yet to be done:  acquire a second or third baseman, sign Mauer, and see if there is a big splash to be made.

BREAKING NEWS: Arbitration and Type A Free Agents

Posted: 2nd December 2009 by David in Uncategorized
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Matthew Pouliot of the excellent Circling the Bases baseball blog is reporting a list of type A free agents, and whether they’ve been offered arbitration or not.  Of significant interest to Twins fans should be the fact that neither Placido Polanco nor Orlando Hudson were offered arbitration, meaning the Twins will not be forced to forfeit a draft pick if they sign either player.  The preference here would be for the Twins to go after Hudson and his excellent ability to get on base; this would give the Twins a legitimate option to bat second in the batting order in front of AL MVP Joe Mauer.  Polanco wouldn’t be a bad pickup by any means, however.  Where Hudson would bring an offensive table setter with average-to-subpar defense, Polanco would bring less offensive abilities but more defensive value, based on their numbers last year.  Either option would go a long way toward solidifying the infield and rounding out the batting order.  The Twins should get on it immediately.

Joe Mauer: AL MVP

Posted: 24th November 2009 by David in Uncategorized
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Various sources are reporting that Joe Mauer has been named MVP of the American League, receiving 27 of 28 possible first place votes.  The other first-place vote went to Miguel Cabrera of Detroit.  Mark Teixera finished second, with teammate Derek Jeter third; Cabrera finished fourth.  Really, this award is no surprise.  Mauer led the AL in average, OBP and SLG.  No one since George Brett in 1980 has done that, and Mauer did it playing elite defense at the most premium defensive position.  Some arguments were made that the MVP should not go to someone who missed the first month of the season, but it’s worth noting that Mauer still played in an exceptional number of games for a catcher, as he played in 138 of his 141 games while not on the disabled list (granted, some of those at DH).  In short, Mauer was magnificent.  He put on an offensive performance for the ages, was the best player in baseball (at least this side of Albert Pujols), and was an iron man even considering the time he missed in April.  Thankfully, the Twins managed to sneak into the playoffs, which aptly illustrated how valuable Mauer is; without him, the Twins would not have even been sniffing the playoffs.  That value would be the same on the Yankees or the Royals, but it was plainly apparent given the Twins’ fortunes this year.  Congratulations, Joe Mauer.  We were all pulling for you.

Twins Trade Gomez, Acquire Hardy, Retain Cuddyer

Posted: 10th November 2009 by David in Uncategorized
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The offseason has gotten off to a fast start for the Twins – much faster than I could have expected.  On Friday, the Twins sent the centerpiece of the Johan Santana trade, enigmatic speedster Carlos Gomez, to Milwaukee in exchange for J.J. Hardy.  On Saturday, the Twins exercised Michael Cuddyer’s 2011 (not 2010) option.  In general, these moves, in addition to the moves the Twins made in the second half of 2009, seem to indicate a new organizational urgency to win now.  Consider that in the past three and a half months, the Twins have traded two AAA pitchers, their only player even resembling a bona fide short stop prospect, and a promising if extremely raw center fielder, for a veteran starting pitcher, a good if unspectacular reliever, a veteran shortstop, and a former all-star shortstop coming off a miserable campaign in 2009. While the prospects lost were by no means locks (or even likely) to become impact players in the major leagues, these are the sorts of moves that, in the past, the Twins probably would have forgone in the name of long-term organizational stability.

It’s hard not to draw the conclusion that the Twins are motivated by Joe Mauer’s looming free agency and expressed desire to play for a team intent on winning.  Near the trade deadline last year, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan made it no secret that they expected to play for a winning team, and that they were sure Mauer felt the same way.  Their words seem to have had some effect, because the front office hasn’t really slowed down since.  (Of course, this is all relative to the norm, which, for the Twins, is pretty slow to begin with.)

Of course, becoming too aggressive with the major league club at the complete expense of the minor leagues can be disastrous.  (See:  Mets, New York.)  The best part about this three-and-a-half month stretch is that the Twins have also fortified their minor league ranks with the Max Kepler, Miguel Angel Sano, and Kyle Gibson signings.  None of these players are locks to make the majors, and are even less likely to become all-star players, but they are high quality prospects, and the more high quality prospects an organization has in its minor league system, the greater the chance there is that some of those prospects will turn into good major league players.  The Twins, for now anyway, seem to have found a way to fortify the big league club while arguably strengthening their reserves.  The front office deserves credit for that so far.

That’s not to say the recent moves aren’t without risks and questions.  First, Gomez:  While most fans undoubtedly have fresh memories of baserunning blunders, horrible at bats and a maddening tendency to hop like a jack-rabbit before throwing the ball past the cutoff man, the fact remains that Gomez had the ability to be an asset to this club immediately despite his offensive inabilities.  Looking at a variety of defensive metrics, it’s widely accepted by baseball experts that Gomez is one of the premier fly-catchers in the game.  According to Fangraphs UZR data, Gomez saved 16 runs on defense per 150 games in 2008, and 10 runs per 150 games in 2009.  Given regular playing time in center field, Gomez’s defense itself would have been worth 2-3 more wins than an average defensive centerfielder.  I’d put that estimate at 3, given that the Twins possess numerous pitchers that rely heavily on getting flyball outs.  In addition, this means a full season of Delmon Young’s atrocious defense in left.  Hopefully, Young will improve defensively, but it’s difficult to see him making up the 10-15 runs lost with Gomez’s departure.

That said, acquiring a potential all-star shortstop for a one-dimensional center fielder makes this a worthwhile trade, even considering the fact that Gomez is under team control for four years, and Hardy for only two.  The only concern with Hardy, obviously, is his season last year.  It’s tempting to write off Hardy’s ’09 campaign as simply an aberration and/or a maddening stretch of bad luck.  Indeed, Hardy’s batting average on all balls in play (BAbip) was .264, well below last year’s major league average of .301.  This gives some reason to think that Hardy was simply the victim of bad luck (by hitting an inordinate amount of balls right at fielders) and is bound to bounce back, but some peripheral numbers indicate this may not be the case.  Hardy has never been one to draw many walks, swinging at almost 22% of all pitches outside the strike zone for his career.  In his successful 2007 and 2008 campaigns, Hardy managed contact on 68 and 67% of those swings; last year, that number plummeted to 57%.  This indicates that, along with a substandard BAbip, Hardy was just plainly not making as much contact as years past.  His strikeout percentage correspondingly increased from 17.3% in 2008 to 20.5% in 2009.  Another reason for concern is Hardy’s batted ball tendencies.  Remember that average on balls in play?  Well, a big reason that number went down was quite possibly the fact that only 13.9% of balls off Hardy’s bat last year were line drives, meaning balls he put in play tended to be easier for fielders to handle.  (Of course, this assumes that fly balls and (to a lesser extent) ground balls are easier to field than line drives.)  This isn’t to say it’s impossible to be successful with such a low line drive rate, but just that a huge improvement in BAbip is no guarantee.  In all, I think the trade was a good one, but it’s not a sure thing.  The Twins lost a valuable commodity with Gomez, and took on some risk with Hardy.

Regarding Cuddyer’s extension, I firmly disagree with contentions that this is a bad move by the Twins, due to their alleged budget constraints.  Cuddyer does have his flaws (specifically his range in right field and his propensity to swing at curveballs in another zip code), but the fact remains that, at worst, the Twins are only slightly overpaying for Cuddyer.  The Twins essentially have committed to paying Cuddyer $9.5 million (given that they owed a $1 million buyout if they didn’t pick up the option) in 2011.  By 2011, players will likely be more expensive and that number will be more reasonable.  In addition, Cuddyer’s clubhouse leadership and Ewing Theory credentials increase Cuddyer’s value intangibly, at least a little bit.  Furthermore, there is a sobering reality to the state of this club.  The Twins core of Mauer, Morneau, Span, Kubel, and Cuddyer aren’t going to play forever, and they are all either in or just entering the prime of their careers.  If ever there was an appropriate time to overpay a bit for quality players, this is it.

Really, the front office seems to have realized this reality over the last three and a half months.  The Twins currently possess arguably the best player in baseball, and he happens to play the most physically demanding position on the diamond.  Mauer gives the Twins an enormous advantage by playing excellent defense and beyond-belief offense at a premium position.  The only way this advantage will mean anything is if, when Mauer hits his prime, the Twins surround Mauer with a quality team, thus maximizing the advantage they enjoy with Mauer.  So far, the Twins are off to a good start, having improved the bullpen last year, improving the infield this year and locking up a valuable team player through 2011.  In my opinion, they still need a quality (not just “veteran”) starter and a third baseman to really make a push.  Here’s hoping they keep moving.

Breaking News: Gomez traded to Milwaukee for JJ Hardy

Posted: 6th November 2009 by David in Uncategorized
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Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune is reporting that the Twins have traded Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for shortstop JJ Hardy. Interesting move by Smith. He continues a promising trend in a GM: When he feels that a move or a plan hasn’t panned out, he does not stubbornly stick to his guns. Rather, he cuts ties and cuts his losses, rather than forcing square pegs into round holes. He did it with Mike Lamb, Kevin Mulvey, Phillip Humber, and now with the most visible piece of the Johan Santana trade – Carlos Gomez. I have to say, I’m shocked, and a little sad, because I still think Gomez has a chance to become a very good player. That said, this is a clear signal that Smith is trying to win now. Gomez surely was at least another year in progress (most likely more). I’ll have a more detailed write-up early next week.

On that note, my apologies for not updating lately. I’m in the middle of a mid-term for my Criminal Procedure Class, and it’s basically been consuming my existence for the last two weeks. More regular updates should be starting again next week.

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