Twins Fix

The word from LaVelle E. Neal of the Star Tribune is that the Twins have, in fact, offered Jarrod Washburn a one year deal worth $5 million.  During the 2008 season, the Twins were rumored to be interested in acquiring Washburn from the Seattle Mariners, but, when the Mariners’ asking price was too high, the Twins backed off.  Now, at least, it seems that Washburn is doing what the Mariners did in 2008:  saving the Twins from themselves.  The bottom line is that, on its face, this is a highly questionable move by a front office that had seemed to be moving in the right direction since the 2009 trade deadline.  The problems with Washburn have been well-documented, but this story worked me into such a lather that I can’t help myself.

Washburn originally started his career with the Angels.  He had a breakout year in 2002, hurling 206 innings while going 18-6 with a 3.15 ERA.  He compiled 139 strikeouts and walked only 59 batters, leading to a 3.71 FIP that suggested that, while he wasn’t quite as good as a 3.15 ERA, it wasn’t a totally ridiculous result of Washburn’s performance.  Unfortunately, other than his very successful 2002 campaign, Washburn has never posted a FIP lower than 4.35, and has a career 4.60 FIP, which means that, all things being equal (fair defense, fair luck, fair home run rate), you can expect Washburn to give you an ERA between 4.40 and 4.80.  Definitely, a club could do worse.

The problem with Washburn is that he is extremely reliant on his defense.  Striking out a modest 5.33 batters per nine innings, Washburn also walks 2.75 batters per nine innings; basically, for every two strikeouts Washburn notches, he shoots himself in the foot with a walk.  Given those ratios, his defense has to be crisp for him to be effective.  Witness the first half of his season last year in Seattle, where, playing in front of one of the best defenses imaginable, Washburn posted a glistening 2.64 ERA.  The importance of defense to Washburn is doubly important because he gives up a hefty amount of line drives (20% of all balls in play) and a fair amount of fly balls (42% of all balls in play).  Basically, almost 2/3 of the time a batter puts a ball in play, it’s in the air and quite possibly hit pretty hard.  Without a good defense, Washburn is going to be very susceptible to having a lot of men on base and possibly giving up a lot of extra base hits.

This isn’t to say he’s worthless.  His career 4.60 FIP is nothing to be ashamed of, especially considering the fact that Washburn routinely throws 150-190 innings.  Also, Seattle shows that, given the right circumstances, he can be very successful.  With someone like Franklin “Death to Flying Things” Gutierrez prowling center field, a team could make the most of Washburn’s talents.  The Twins are not a team like that.  With Carlos Gomez gone to Milwaukee and Denard Span moved to center field, the Twins’ defense in center figures to be a bit worse than it was last year.  Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer are just plain poor in the corners.  Both have cannons for arms, but neither can cover much ground.  Contrary to what happened in Seattle, Washburn signing on with the Twins would make his weaknesses glaringly apparent.  Factor in the fact that he’s 35 and unlikely to see a sudden improvement in skills, and it’s hard to see why the Twins are making the offer they are.

There are, of course, circumstances that could make the Twins’ interest a bit more understandable.  With a Washburn signing, the Twins would have a glut of potential starters and would seem even more likely to deal one of their arms, perhaps for a third baseman or second baseman.  Absent such a deal (and there has been little indication that such a trade may be imminent), the move just does not make sense.  Neal noted in his initial Washburn post that a Twins official commented that Brian Duensing might be better now than Washburn is.  In that case, offering five million dollars for a pitcher of comparable abilities to an in-house option is just inexplicable.  There have been indications that the Twins don’t want to rely on inexperienced starters in the event that one of their pitchers goes down this year (like Slowey and Perkins did last year, leading to a parade of Anthony Swarzak, Jeff Manship, R.A. Dickey, an ineffective Francisco Liriano, and finally Duensing).  Fair enough, but this reasoning is hard to rationalize when you consider that the Twins really have NO option at third base or second base, depending on where Nick Punto plays.

While having a contingent plan for pitchers is nice and all, addressing a gaping hole is a higher priority.   (Note:  I have expressed optimism about Danny Valencia, but I think it’s fair to assume he’s not going to be ready right out of spring training.) There have been ample opportunities to address third base:  Troy Glaus, Placido Polanco, and Mark DeRosa have all signed for extremely reasonable salaries (Glaus signing for a surprisingly low $2.5 million, Polanco getting a nice three-year deal, and DeRosa getting an absolutely fair and reasonable deal from the Giants).  It’s very hard to understand why the Twins would continue to let such reasonably-priced options sign with other clubs and focus instead on paying $5 million for an aging pitcher who might be a nice safety net, but is not absolutely necessary.