The word in the Twins’ blogotwittersphere (mainly via LaVelle E. Neal III) is that Carl Pavano will accept the Twins’ offer of arbitration and return with the club next season. Ed Price of FanHouse.com reports that Pavano could make $7 million or more. This is not all that surprising given that Pavano is still fighting the stigma of 4 lost years in hell…er…New York and has expressed a desire to return to the Twins.
When the Twins acquired Pavano last year, too many observations focused on his bloated ERA. Of course, focus on ERA ignores the fact that Pavano had inordinately bad luck pitching in Cleveland as Cleveland’s defensive efficiency was well-below league average. For his career, Pavano has a 4.44 ERA and a 4.17 FIP; his poor ERA last year undoubtedly has inflated his career total. He showed down the stretch last year and in the post season that he has good enough stuff to make an impact for the Twins. The biggest issue of course is his health, but by accepting arbitration and signing a one year contract, this risk is practically neutralized for the Twins.
Pavano is an effective if unspectacular pitcher. Last year he struck out 6.64 batters per nine innings while walking only 1.76 batters per nine for a very solid 3.77 K/BB ratio. On a club that has many flyball-prone pitchers, Pavano actually induces many more ground balls than flyballs, which keeps his home run totals reasonable despite having a rather hefty 10% of all flyballs leave the park. Perhaps most importantly, he pitched nearly 200 innings and did not show any signs of injury problems, other than slight fatigue as he approached 200 innings. In short, if the Twins get what they’re hoping for, they’ll probably get 180-200 innings of of 3.9-4.5 ERA pitching with about 20 or so home runs surrendered, good control and a modest strikeout rate. Pavano should be helped by the addition of JJ Hardy at short more than most Twins pitchers due to his high groundball/flyball ratio.
So far, so good for the Twins this offseason. They’ve unclogged the outfield jam, upgraded at shortstop, and signed a quality veteran pitcher. Getting a quality “ace” caliber pitcher would be ideal, but at this point it’s probably more reasonable for fans to hope for an Adrian Beltre, Felipe Lopez or Orlando Hudson signing. (Of course, I won’t fault anyone for dreaming of a trade for Josh Johnson.) As I’ve stated, my preference is Hudson; his solid OBP would probably be more valuable to the Twins than most, given that he’d undoubtedly be hitting between OBP machine Denard Span and in front of one of the top hitters in the American League, Joe Mauer.
In short, the Pavano signing is a good, solid, but unexciting move for the Twins. They solidify their rotation with a quality arm at a marginal risk for next year. Yet to be done: acquire a second or third baseman, sign Mauer, and see if there is a big splash to be made.