This past season, it felt like so much changed for the Twins. Joe Mauer finally developed a power stroke and played beyond our most optimistic expectations. Denard Span solidified himself in the leadoff spot, showing that he may in fact be the best leadoff hitter the Twins have had since Chuck Knoblauch. Along with Span’s proficiency at getting on base, the offense featured four legitimate power threats in Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, and Jason Kubel. They also, for a time, had a legitimate third baseman in Joe Crede, who brought both power and stellar defense to the hot corner. As if the power-increase on offense weren’t odd enough, the Twins suddenly found themselves with serious pitching problems, with Scott Baker struggling early, Nick Blackburn struggling in mid-season, Kevin Slowey getting injured, and Glen Perkins featuring a lethal mix of injury and mediocrity. Francisco Liriano, of course, was victimized by a combination of maddening bad luck and strike zone control.
Despite these changes, the Twins enter this offseason with similar needs as in the past. First, they lack a true number one starter. While it’s either ridiculous or naïve to expect the Twins to make a big splash like signing John Lackey, re-signing Carl Pavano could go a long way toward stabilizing the rotation. With a pitcher like Pavano on board, lacking a true number one starter is offset by having a full rotation of solid starters, with Pavano, Baker, Blackburn, Slowey and maybe Brian Duensing giving the Twins a solid, if not flashy, rotation. Second, the Twins have glaring needs at all infield positions not occupied by Morneau. Essentially, the Twins need a starter and two players to fill either second, third or short. With a Pavano re-signing likely costing the Twins $6-8 million per year, and the Mauer extension likely to add $8-10 million to the payroll next year, the Twins are probably going to have to address these positions via trade. With that in mind, I’d like evaluate which player for the Twins is their most beneficial trade asset. To be beneficial, the player needs to be both expendable and capable of fetching a large return. The answer is pretty clear. The Twins’ most beneficial trade asset is Jason Kubel.
(I didn’t even want to write this post, but as the provider of your Twins Fix, I realize it’s my duty to announce my endorsement of shopping a player I’ve been backing relentlessly for years. Seriously, I love Jason Kubel. I love that he mashes. I love that all he seems to do is hit huge home runs. I love that he gives the Twins a left-handed murderers’ row behind Mauer and Morneau. I love the beard. Seriously, it’s not quite a bromance, but it’s close. Kube, I love you man. I’m sorry. Really, I’m sorry.)
The first reason Kubel is a beneficial trade asset is that he is expendable. When Morneau went down in September, Cuddyer filled in admirably at first base. Cuddyer is going to give you offensive production either in right field or at first base, but I would argue that he is less of a defensive liability at first base, AND less of a defensive liability than Morneau. For his career in right, Cuddyer posts a -8.9 Ultimate Zone Rating; at first, his UZR is -1.3. Morneau, for his part, sports a 3.2 UZR, but that is probably inflated a bit by his anomalous 15.0 score in 2005. Further, Cuddyer’s career UZR at first is slightly unreliable given that he’s never played a full season there, and his career score is based only on 80 games. I’m going more off what I saw from Cuddyer at the end of the year in saying that he might be a better defensive option at first than Morneau (and I’m fully aware that my own observations are limited). Either way, Cuddyer’s ability to play first as well as he does allows the Twins to move Cuddyer to first and DH Morneau, or alternate the two of them at first and DH. Even though I’m not a huge Delmon Young believer, it would be interesting to see what Young could do given a full season in the outfield. The outfield alignment would then be Span, Young, and Carlos Gomez, with Cuddyer and Morneau sharing duties at first and DH. While losing Kubel would hurt, it might not be disastrous. Further, it would give the Twins an opportunity to give Morneau more time at DH, cutting down on his wear and tear.
This brings us to the second reason Kubel is the most tradeable trade asset – he could bring in a huge return. Kubel is locked up through 2010 with a club option for 2011; his 143 OPS+ bat could be available for two years at less than $10 million. Couple that with the fact that FanGraphs estimates his value for the past season alone to have been $13.4 million, and Kubel’s production can be had especially cheaply. That should allow the Twins to trade him for major-league ready talent.
Of course, my first preference would be for the Twins to address their pitching and infield needs while still retaining Kubel. The Twins have invested a ton of time into Kubel’s development and are now finally being rewarded for their patience. Kubel is a power bat at DH who has made fans forget the days that Jason Tyner was the best option at DH. Furthermore, the Twins could solve their outfield/DH logjam by simply cutting ties with either Young or Gomez. But again, the point here is to determine which player the Twins can most afford to part with AND can bring them the most in return. While losing Kubel’s cheap production would hurt, he might bring the most improvement while being decently replaceable. Going forward, it seems to me that Jason Kubel needs to be considered in any trade possibilities. This isn’t to say, “TRADE KUBEL!!!” Trading any player requires weighing that player’s value against the value received in return. This is only to say that trading Kubel might be the Twins’ best opportunity at improving via trade.
(Note: In these posts, I try to explain advanced stats and my use of them wherever possible. At the same time, explaining these stats can be boring for people who don’t care and redundant for people familiar with them. If you have any questions about my use of stats like Win Probability, UZR, OPS+, or just about advanced statistics in general, feel free to ask me. I’m always happy to explain/discuss.)
8 Responses to “Trades: The Twins' Most Beneficial Asset”
Leave your Feedback
You must be logged in to post a comment.
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:32 pm
the fallacy of your argument is that trading him doesn’t clear much payroll flexibility as we only save 5 million ler season. Cuddyer is the better trade candidate from a payroll perspective. Or If you look furhter into your own debate Morneau would also be a good trade candidate and Cuddyer can move to first.
October 23rd, 2009 at 6:25 pm
That is a good point, but what I’m talking about is making an improvement via trade in terms of what you could get back. To me, precisely because Kubel’s contract is so good (and therefore shedding it wouldn’t give much payroll flexibility), he would give the Twins the best return, possibly in terms of excellent young, high value talent. Morneau would help our payroll flexibility, but he wouldn’t bring back as much talent precisely because another team would be taking a hit on their own payroll flexibility. Same thing with Cuddyer, only difference being that he doesn’t handicap the payroll as much while being an inferior hitter to Morneau.
October 23rd, 2009 at 11:45 pm
Interesting post. We don’t want to hear it, but it is true, Jason Kubel is our best trade-bait that we can afford to lose while pulling in the most back from another team. It makes our outfield defense stronger by putting gomez at cf and span in a corner spot-those two alone might be all you need, jk. This will also give Delmon Young everyday at bats which he needs. I think delmons defense will improve away from the dome as well, or at least i hope. Cuddyer and Morneau splitting dh and 1st makes up for kubel, argubably. I do think that the Twins should only trade him if he’s apart of a blockbuster deal bringing in an Ace. Kubel for J.J. Hardy or someone to that is interesting, but I believe Kubels trade value should be able to be the main center piece to a bigger type deal, for an Ace. A team looking to shed away some salary, via an Ace, would have to consider trading him for Kubel and his small 2-year salary. —- Your next piece could be on some potential teams that would take a look at trading for Kubel????
October 26th, 2009 at 3:10 am
I don’t agree with trading Kubel — he is a player who’s demonstrated that he’s on the upswing and we risk giving away more upside than we get in return. I’d rather trade Nathan who appears to be trending downward, Young who has upside, but doesn’t know how to work a pitcher, and Casilla, who will never win Gardy’s confidence. Make Guerrier the closer, pick up a 3B and solid middle infielder.
October 26th, 2009 at 9:26 am
Bowie.. I like the idea of trading Casilla. Maybe package him with Perkins and a prospect and ship him for J.J. Hardy. I don’t think you can just give up on Young yet. When we got him, most of us knew that it was going to be a couple years to see where Delmon ends up. He’s the youngest player on our team and he shows plenty upside still. Give him a year in Target Field. I don’t think we should have Guerrier closing games for the Twins though.
October 29th, 2009 at 8:06 am
[...] Trades: The Twins’ Most Beneficial Asset [...]
November 1st, 2009 at 10:38 am
…Or, we can stop with this nonsense and realize the only real strength from which we should trade is pitching. Everyone wants pitching, including the Brewers. And, we can’t keep all these guys on the brink year after year, just watching them get older and depreciate in value. Time to start moving guys like Perkins, Manship, Swarzak, Robertson, and the likes. Assets are worth nothing unless they have value on the trade market. Time to start moving out some of the congestion in this system for pieces that fill gaping holes.
And, really, the Twins revenues topped $190M this year. This is by no means a poor team or a “small market.” Time to start coughing up some dough to fill a few holes.
Your Kubel trade is pretty much nonsense; it’s totally unnecessary. You want J.J. Hardy? Trade a package of pitching and Alexi Casilla.
Hey, you want someone on the team with perahps an inflated worth? How about trading Scott Baker?
November 2nd, 2009 at 12:13 am
we can stop with this nonsense and realize the only real strength from which we should trade is pitching.
Hey, you want someone on the team with perahps an inflated worth? How about trading Scott Baker?
I found these two comments amusing coming in the same comment, given that Scott Baker is the best pitcher in the Twins organization outside of Joe Nathan. I’m also curious as to why you think he has “inflated worth,” or what you mean by that. Do you mean that he’s not as valuable as people make him out to be? Because last year he was a 3.5 win pitcher at $750,000 – that’s pretty darn valuable. Or, do you mean that he, like Kubel, provides exceedingly high value in terms of wins per dollar, and therefore could command a huge return? If that’s your point, then I have a hard time understanding how the idea of trading Kubel is “nonsense” given that you base trading Baker on the very same premise. But you’d at least be right about Baker – he does, like Kubel, offer extremely high value in terms of wins per dollar. The only problem with trading him is the other consideration – whether the player is expendable and can be easily replaced. Whereas Kubel could be replaced by improved outfield defense (see: Gomez, Carlos playing everyday in center) and a Morneau/Cuddyer platoon at first/DH, there is no obvious replacement for an organization’s far-and-away best starting pitcher, with no immediate replacement in sight.
Your Kubel trade is pretty much nonsense; it’s totally unnecessary. You want J.J. Hardy? Trade a package of pitching and Alexi Casilla.
You’ll notice that I didn’t actually formulate a concrete trade proposal for Kubel, like saying he’d have to be part of a JJ Hardy trade; not sure if you were talking to me or the commenter above. For the record, I don’t see Kubel being part of a Hardy trade – Hardy shouldn’t command that much, and the Brewers probably wouldn’t want a DH who plays pretty terrible defense. Just for the record, I was merely pointing out that Kubel would be a legitimate trade chip if the Twins want to make a blockbuster deal and address multiple weaknesses with one trade. You’ll notice I said, “This isn’t to say, “TRADE KUBEL!!!” Trading any player requires weighing that player’s value against the value received in return. This is only to say that trading Kubel might be the Twins’ best opportunity at improving via trade.” Oh, and it’s pretty well accepted that Alexi Casilla was one of the worst players in baseball last year. I don’t see him being a key part of any trade, given that he’s just as likely to be a liability as an asset, and for his career is 1 win below replacement level. He might be a throw-in, sure, but nothing more.