Comcast Sports Network is reporting that Freddy Sanchez has signed a 2 year deal with the Giants. While perhaps not the most desirable option for the Twins to pursue at second base, he was one of the best second basemen available on the free agent market. His signing dries up the second base market a little bit. If the Twins are smart, they’ll address their second base issue quickly, before the market dries up and robs them of any negotiating leverage they’d have thanks to a deep second base free agent class. Of course, if the Twins do as expected and put all their efforts into re-signing Mauer before addressing any other needs, they will likely find themselves picking up scraps and possibly having to overpay.

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Starting today, I’m going to consider what options the Twins have in this offseason.  In some ways, this feels like a futile exercise, given that four talented, prolific bloggers have united at Twinscentric.com to provide a comprehensive overview of the offseason.  Written by John Bonnes, Parker Hageman, Nick Nelson, and Seth Stohs, the TwinsCentric offseason handbook provides 137 pages (plus a Bill Smith interview recently added) of detailed analysis and gives you a chance to decide what you would do were you in shoes of Bill Smith et al.  Personally, what I find great about this handbook is that all four of these guys bring unique perspectives and styles to baseball analysis.  If you haven’t checked out their abundant free content on their blogs yet, do so.  If you like it, consider the handbook.  I know I’m like, three weeks late in plugging this, but just in case you haven’t heard of it yet, check it out.  You can even download 1/3 of it for free to see if you like it.

Anyway, clearly what the Twins really need this offseason is two of the following three:  a third baseman, a short stop, a second baseman.  I say two of three for both practical and hopeful reasons.  First (the practical reason), it’s unlikely the Twins would be able to sign a free agent, make a trade and/or develop from within, filling all of these holes, without either dramatically increasing the payroll or making a blockbuster deal, which both seem unlikely given Mauer’s looming extension and the fact that the Twins aren’t likely to trade away a pieces necessary to make such a deal – despite the fact that I think they have at least one piece to make that sort of deal happen.  Second (the hopeful reason), if the Twins can improve at, say, second and third, they can hope that Nick Punto builds on his late-2009 walk-inducing renaissance and provide good defense and on-base capabilities at short.

Today, we’ll tackle third base.  Rumors that Danny Valencia is waiting in the wings should give Twins fans some reason for excitement.  In 4 seasons and 1,804 plate appearances in the minors, Valencia has posted a .299/.354/.480 line, with 111 doubles, 54 homers, and a decent 2.3 K/BB ratio.  His production has been fairly consistent over his last three years as he has moved up through the Twins’ minor league system, which makes it reasonable to assume that he certainly could become a good big league player.  However, his on base percentage this last year at AAA dipped to .305, well below his career minor league average, and his OPS at AAA tumbled almost 100 points from where it stood at AA in the first half of 2009.  Valencia’s career track in the minors has been almost mechanical as he has moved up one level every year since the beginning of 2007, with an unsurprising yearly second-half dip in production as he adjusts to a more competitive league.  Consider his yearly OPS since 2006 (compared to league average for context), taking into account his transitions from one league to the next:

(Thanks to www.baseball-reference.com for some handy tables.)

While this isn’t an especially scientific or scout-savvy way to make a projection, it seems logical to assume that Valencia will probably need to spend some time in Rochester for the first half of 2010, when he will probably start mashing opposing pitching, get promoted to the majors and then struggle as he adjusts to a (much) more competitive league.  What is worth noting though is that his second-half struggles in the minors have still resulted in posting an OPS that is above league average.  This isn’t to say Valencia is going to come up to the majors and post an OPS just above the major league average of .764, but it does suggest that his struggles in the minors are, well, minor enough that he should be able to hold his own in the second half of 2010.

So, what to do with third base?  Considering that Valencia probably should start next year in AAA, and that he is likely to struggle somewhat as a rookie major leaguer, the Twins need basically a one year option that can give them solid, preferably cheap, production and would be able to platoon with Valencia in the second half of the season.  Over at Twins Target, the suggestion is to bring backJoe Crede for one year.  I couldn’t agree more.  Crede’s excellent glove work, power bat, and certain bargain price make him an ideal fit.  Valencia’s seemingly imminent call-up also greatly lessens the injury risk associated with Crede.  The other player who intrigues me is Mark DeRosa.  Able to play any position on defense save for center field and catcher, DeRosa sports a respectable career OPS of .767 and weighted on-base average of .337.  DeRosa could play third until Valencia comes up, move to a different position, and fill in at third as needed to spell Valencia should he struggle.  The one worry with DeRosa is that, at 34 years old (35 before next year starts), there are signs his skills are diminishing.  His on base percentage was way down, strikeout percentage was way up, and line drive percentage down to 16% when it had been at or above 20% since 2003.  DeRosa suffered a terrible second half, and I wouldn’t rule out a bounce back in 2010.  His versatility would also make him a worthwhile gamble to stem the tide until Valencia arrives.

No matter what the Twins do, there is reason to look forward to Valencia’s call-up.  All signs point to him becoming an impact hitter.  If he can man the hot corner, the Twins shouldn’t have to deal with this old problem again for some time.

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This past season, it felt like so much changed for the Twins.  Joe Mauer finally developed a power stroke and played beyond our most optimistic expectations.  Denard Span solidified himself in the leadoff spot, showing that he may in fact be the best leadoff hitter the Twins have had since Chuck Knoblauch.  Along with Span’s proficiency at getting on base, the offense featured four legitimate power threats in Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, and Jason Kubel.  They also, for a time, had a legitimate third baseman in Joe Crede, who brought both power and stellar defense to the hot corner.  As if the power-increase on offense weren’t odd enough, the Twins suddenly found themselves with serious pitching problems, with Scott Baker struggling early, Nick Blackburn struggling in mid-season, Kevin Slowey getting injured, and Glen Perkins featuring a lethal mix of injury and mediocrity. Francisco Liriano, of course, was victimized by a combination of maddening bad luck and strike zone control.

Despite these changes, the Twins enter this offseason with similar needs as in the past.  First, they lack a true number one starter.  While it’s either ridiculous or naïve to expect the Twins to make a big splash like signing John Lackey, re-signing Carl Pavano could go a long way toward stabilizing the rotation.   With a pitcher like Pavano on board, lacking a true number one starter is offset by having a full rotation of solid starters, with Pavano, Baker, Blackburn, Slowey and maybe Brian Duensing giving the Twins a solid, if not flashy, rotation.  Second, the Twins have glaring needs at all infield positions not occupied by Morneau.  Essentially, the Twins need a starter and two players to fill either second, third or short.  With a Pavano re-signing likely costing the Twins $6-8 million per year, and the Mauer extension likely to add $8-10 million to the payroll next year, the Twins are probably going to have to address these positions via trade.  With that in mind, I’d like evaluate which player for the Twins is their most beneficial trade asset.  To be beneficial, the player needs to be both expendable and capable of fetching a large return.  The answer is pretty clear.  The Twins’ most beneficial trade asset is Jason Kubel.

(I didn’t even want to write this post, but as the provider of your Twins Fix, I realize it’s my duty to announce my endorsement of shopping a player I’ve been backing relentlessly for years.  Seriously, I love Jason Kubel.  I love that he mashes.  I love that all he seems to do is hit huge home runs.  I love that he gives the Twins a left-handed murderers’ row behind Mauer and Morneau.  I love the beard.  Seriously, it’s not quite a bromance, but it’s close.  Kube, I love you man.  I’m sorry.  Really, I’m sorry.)

The first reason Kubel is a beneficial trade asset is that he is expendable.  When Morneau went down in September, Cuddyer filled in admirably at first base.  Cuddyer is going to give you offensive production either in right field or at first base, but I would argue that he is less of a defensive liability at first base, AND less of a defensive liability than Morneau.  For his career in right, Cuddyer posts a -8.9 Ultimate Zone Rating; at first, his UZR is -1.3.  Morneau, for his part, sports a 3.2 UZR, but that is probably inflated a bit by his anomalous 15.0 score in 2005.  Further, Cuddyer’s career UZR at first is slightly unreliable given that he’s never played a full season there, and his career score is based only on 80 games.  I’m going more off what I saw from Cuddyer at the end of the year in saying that he might be a better defensive option at first than Morneau (and I’m fully aware that my own observations are limited).  Either way, Cuddyer’s ability to play first as well as he does allows the Twins to move Cuddyer to first and DH Morneau, or alternate the two of them at first and DH.  Even though I’m not a huge Delmon Young believer, it would be interesting to see what Young could do given a full season in the outfield.  The outfield alignment would then be Span, Young, and Carlos Gomez, with Cuddyer and Morneau sharing duties at first and DH.  While losing Kubel would hurt, it might not be disastrous.  Further, it would give the Twins an opportunity to give Morneau more time at DH, cutting down on his wear and tear.

This brings us to the second reason Kubel is the most tradeable trade asset – he could bring in a huge return.  Kubel is locked up through 2010 with a club option for 2011; his 143 OPS+ bat could be available for two years at less than $10 million.  Couple that with the fact that FanGraphs estimates his value for the past season alone to have been $13.4 million, and Kubel’s production can be had especially cheaply.  That should allow the Twins to trade him for major-league ready talent.

Of course, my first preference would be for the Twins to address their pitching and infield needs while still retaining Kubel.  The Twins have invested a ton of time into Kubel’s development and are now finally being rewarded for their patience.  Kubel is a power bat at DH who has made fans forget the days that Jason Tyner was the best option at DH.  Furthermore, the Twins could solve their outfield/DH logjam by simply cutting ties with either Young or Gomez.  But again, the point here is to determine which player the Twins can most afford to part with AND can bring them the most in return.  While losing Kubel’s cheap production would hurt, he might bring the most improvement while being decently replaceable.  Going forward, it seems to me that Jason Kubel needs to be considered in any trade possibilities.  This isn’t to say, “TRADE KUBEL!!!”  Trading any player requires weighing that player’s value against the value received in return.  This is only to say that trading Kubel might be the Twins’ best opportunity at improving via trade.

(Note:  In these posts, I try to explain advanced stats and my use of them wherever possible.  At the same time, explaining these stats can be boring for people who don’t care and redundant for people familiar with them.  If you have any questions about my use of stats like Win Probability, UZR, OPS+, or just about advanced statistics in general, feel free to ask me.  I’m always happy to explain/discuss.)

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Legend, or Myth? Seemingly every October, baseball fans all over America are reminded of Derek Jeter’s outstanding playoff performances and are privileged to witness further such performances.  Jeter is, in short, Mr. October, “the face of playoff baseball”.  Sort of.  Thankfully, my blog isn’t linked and featured to a hotbed of Yankee fans the way some are, so I probably won’t have to fight off hordes of angry Yankee fans for pointing out an objective fact:  Jeter’s October persona is more myth than legend.  This isn’t to take away from Jeter’s October performances.  He certainly has performed extremely well in October and has made many plays critical to Yankee postseason victories, but the notion that Jeter suddenly takes his game to another level in October is simply foolish.  Compare Jeter’s career regular season numbers with his career postseason numbers.

The plain truth is this:  Derek Jeter is Mr. October only insofar as he plays in October all the time.  At 128 games, Jeter is approaching a full regular season’s worth of postseason games, and, not surprisingly, his averages are all extremely close to his career averages.  Despite his reputation for being clutch in the playoffs, Jeter has a negative win probability in the postseason for his career.  Yes, he certainly has had huge moments in the post season, but the truth is he has actually underperformed in terms of adding to his team’s chances to win as compared to his regular season performance (his regular season Win Probability coming out around 2.2 wins/year).  We all have a litany of huge Derek Jeter October memories because we’ve seen him play almost an entire season of post season baseball.  This is due more to the team he plays for than any “clutch” switch he flips come playoff time.  Oh, that player X – the one who’s career postseason numbers are comparable to Jeter’s, the one who has a much higher win probability despite playing in 84 fewer games?  That player is none other than Mr. Not-October, Alex Rodriguez.

Mr. Not-October: I don’t particularly like the guy, but there’s no denying that Rodriguez is having a monster post-season after fighting supposed playoff demons for years.  For this post season, Rodriguez is batting .348/.407/.870 with 4 HR, 9 RBI, 3 BB and 3 K.  Three of those home runs have been of the game tying variety – game two against the Twins in the ninth, game three against the Twins in the seventh, and game two against the Angels in the 11^th.  No matter what you think of Rodriguez, he’s putting together a memorable post-season.

Baserunning blunders: The Yankees almost went up 3-0 on the Angels yesterday thanks to another baserunning blunder by an opponent, with Bobby Abreu overrunning second base on an eighth inning double and getting thrown out trying to get back.  (Must be time to send Abreu to the minors and trade Brian Fuentes!)  With that blunder, the Yankees have now benefitted from no fewer than three catastrophic baserunning mistakes by their opponents in the post season (Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto being the first two benefactors).  Add that to the Mauer “foul”, the Aybar/Figgins dropped pop, and the Aybar “neighborhood” play, and in sum it’s been a lucky run for the evil empire so far.  I don’t mean to say they’d be eliminated if they hadn’t been so lucky.  They most likely would have still beaten the Twins, and they certainly can beat the Angels without any luck.  Still, it would be nice to see an opponent (and the umpires) keep their wits about them and actually force a great team to play to its maximum potential.  Sloppy playoff baseball is no fun for anybody.  At least the Angels recovered yesterday and could still make this a dynamic series.

The NL’s Mr. October: Speaking of post-season performance, the defending champion Philadelphia Phillies are getting a pretty monumental performance from their cleanup hitter.  Ryan Howard is punishing the baseball at a pretty extraordinary rate, posting a line of .379/.457/.793 with 4 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 5 BB and 7 K.  A World Series pitting the defending champs against the perpetual champs would feature two of the premier hitters in the game peaking in the playoffs and squaring off against each other on baseball’s biggest stage.  Despite the fact that I’m rooting for the Angels, I wouldn’t mind seeing that matchup.

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I’m not going to delve into the details of Sunday’s latest frustrating loss to the Yankees. Same old story – Twins couldn’t hold a lead, couldn’t get a big hit, pitched great against a great offense but shot themselves in the foot just enough to make victory near impossible.

I’m on vacation for the next week, so I won’t be updating on here until I get back. Once I do, I’ll start looking at possible free agent acquisitions, speculate on some trade possibilities and overall discuss the state of the club. For now, I think it’s worth saying that the Twins played well against against a stacked team and at least gave us an entertaining ride in September. Let’s enjoy the remainder of playoffs while we still have baseball, before we have to count down until spring training.

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The Twins fell again in New York on Friday night, 4-3, thanks to an incredible inability to take advantage of opportunities.  The Twins as a team left 17 runners on base, and witnessed Joe Nathan completely implode by surrendering a game-tying home run to Alex Rodriguez and throwing wildly to second attempting to pick off Brent Gardner. Nathan was eventually bailed out by a lucky break and some poor base running, but he again failed to come through for the Twins in a big game.  Over his career, and particularly in the last two seasons, Nathan has seemed to turn into a pumpkin precisely when the Twins need him most.  Somewhat fittingly, the Yanks won on a Mark Texeira homer that bounced off the top of the wall and ricocheted into the stands, a ball that almost certainly wouldn’t be a home run in any other park in the majors.

There are numerous other blunders to address, but first, we have to acknowledge the impressive performance from Big Game Nick Blackburn.  At the end of 2008 in a play-in game against the Chicago White Sox, Blackburn was the starter almost by default.  He had not pitched well down the stretch but was the Twins’ only option going into that game. Blackburn responded with 8 innings of 1 run ball, entirely shutting the White Sox down save for Jim Thome’s game-winning blast. This year, Blackburn has again been thrust into the spotlight in critical situations:

1. September 29 at Detroit:  7 IP, 6 hits, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 K

2. October 3 vs. Kansas City (the Greinke game):  7 IP, 4 hits, 0 BB, 2 R, 2 ER, 5 K

3. October 9 at New York:  5.2 IP, 3 hits, 2 BB, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 K

In all, Blackburn has pitched 19.2 innings of baseball, surrendering only 4 ER, 13 hits and 3 walks, good for a 1.83 ERA and .86 WHIP.  No doubt, Blackburn’s struggles immediately after the All Star break made the September 29th and October 3rd games more important than they needed to be.  Still, it’s comforting for fans to know that Blackburn is capable of remarkably professional pitching in big situations, and maybe as he and the team develop in the next couple years, he can handle a truly big stage like an LCS or World Series game.

Unfortunately, it’s looking less and less like the Twins are going to get a shot at that this year.  There is really no need to get into much detail.  The Twins continue to squander opportunities.  Carlos Gomez made an inexcusable base running mistake that cost the Twins a run. Gomez and Delmon Young both offered at the first pitch in the 11th inning with no outs and the bases loaded and failed to bring in a run.  To be fair, Young at least hit the ball hard and has shown an ability to hit the first pitch well.  Gomez looked simply overwhelmed by the moment.  It’s clear that Gomez is pressing in the limited opportunities he’s getting, overrunning bases, overswinging and taking bad at bats.  I still feel Gomez has undeniable talent, but right now he’s going to hurt the team more than help unless someone settles him down.

The Twins’ inability to get big hits with men on base against the Yankees and subsequently losing on walk-off hits is getting to the point of absurdity.  One has to think that with all the runners the Twins keep putting on the bases, they have to eventually score some runs.  Here’s hoping it happens before it’s too late.

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Well, that didn’t last long. Not one full day removed from winning one of the best games in franchise history, and probably the best game most fans in attendance will ever witness in person, the Twins reminded us of their biggest weakness over the years:  an inability to win on baseball’s biggest stage. Watching the Twins blow opportunities while the Yankees cruised was of course frustrating from a fan’s perspective. Still, it’s important to realize that this was a game in which the Twins faced the longest odds. Starting rookie pitcher Brian Duensing 20 hours after a play-in game against C.C. Sabathia put the Twins at probably their biggest disadvantage of any game this series. Despite these long odds, the Twins had their chances but couldn’t make it happen. Unfortunately, they don’t have much time to fix things.

The game started off well enough for the Twins. Duensing navigated the Yankee lineup through the first two innings, allowing only a single to Derek Jeter to lead off the game. The Twins got a leadoff double from Denard Span on the seventh pitch of the at bat. As would become a trend all night, the Twins were unable to take advantage of the opportunity. Orlando Cabrera and Joe Mauer both fanned badly against Sabathia, and Michael Cuddyer flew out harmlessly to end the threat. The Twins finally broke through in the third inning, thanks to a soft liner from Cuddyer for a 1-0 lead. Mauer scored on a passed ball, and suddenly the Twins were leading 2-0 in Yankee stadium, with Duensing looking in control.

It didn’t last long. Jeter bombed one of Duensing’s few mistakes for a two-run homer, but Duensing recovered to retire Mark Texeira and Alex Rodriguez to preserve a 2-2 tie going into the fourth inning. The Twins though, could put nothing else together against Sabathia. They had a threat in the fifth inning, but Mauer stranded Cabrera at second with a groundout. In the seventh, the Twins had their best chance against Sabathia. Down 6-2 after big hits from Nick Swisher and Rodriguez, and a two-run homer from Hideki Matsui off Francisco Liriano, the Twins had runners on second and third with one out and Span at the plate. Span flew out to shallow right, and Cabrera struck out on the tenth pitch of a good battle with Phil Hughes. In short, it was a night of missed opportunities for the Twins. When the Yankees can put up seven runs on a night when they don’t even seem to be clicking, the Twins can ill-afford not to cash in when they have an opportunity. With these things in mind, let’s look at the good and the bad.

First, the bad:

1. Gardenhire’s decision to lift Duensing after only 79 pitches was questionable. Hindsight is obviously 20-20, but the bullpen was over-extended from the night before, and one would think Liriano over Duensing was a minimal improvement at best. The move likely did the Yankees a favor by pulling a pitcher who had been handling them fairly well and replacing him with a pitcher whose fastball has been 22 runs below average this year.
2. Cabrera’s strikeout in the seventh broke the Twins’ back. It’s hard to criticize Cabrera after his monumental performance against Detroit, but the fact of the matter is that he left Mauer on deck when the game was still within reach. Shortening up his swing in that situation and focusing more on walking than getting a huge hit would have been advisable with the presumptive AL MVP on deck.
3. The outfield defense. Despite Ron Darling and Chip Caray’s insistence that the Twins trotted out a great outfield defense, the fact of the matter is that Jason Kubel is an awful option in right, Delmon Young isn’t much better in left, and Denard Span is about average in center (down from truly elite in either corner spot). Out of necessity, Young or Kubel has to play in the outfield, but right now the Twins are letting defender extraordinaire Carlos Gomez ride the bench so that Jose Morales and Brendan Harris can provide a negligible, at best, upgrade over Gomez’s bat. After watching Young and Kubel let at least two balls go for hits that Denard Span probably would have turned into outs (depending on which position Span would have been playing), it’s time for Gardenhire to realize a simple fact: the Twins got hot and made the playoffs in spite of the current outfield/DH alignment, not because of it.

Now, the good

1. Brian Duensing set a pretty good tone for the Twins in this series. Duensing’s final numbers look bad (4.2 IP, 7 hits, 1 BB, 1 HR, 5 ER), but those are inflated by Gardenhire’s early hook and the homer Liriano surrendered to Matsui. Asking a rookie pitcher to pitch game one of a playoff series against the Yankees is a tall order. Duensing responded with his typical composure, walking only one batter and giving up very few hard-hit balls. Really, Jeter’s homer was the only pitch that looked like a bad mistake. Even A-Rod’s single in the fifth was on a pretty good pitch (at least, it seemed that way to me). Duensing deserves a pat on the back, and I think he deserved a chance to get out of the fifth.
2. Opportunities. While they maddeningly failed to cash in on their chances, the Twins at least had opportunities and looked like they could have gotten to Sabathia. Matt Tolbert and Delmon Young looked completely lost against Sabathia, but Span, Cabrera, Mauer and Cuddyer all got solid hits and Nick Punto went 2-3 with a walk. What we can take from this is that the Twins hitters have showed up and seem perfectly capable of producing in a series where they absolutely have to do so.
3. Nick Blackburn takes the hill Friday in a critical game. It’s not literally a must-win, obviously, but the Twins can’t realistically hope to come back from a 2-0 deficit against this team. Strangely, Blackburn seems to be at his best in these sorts of games. Hopefully he brings it tomorrow.
4. The Yankees suck.

The odds are longer than they were at the start of the series, but the Twins absolutely can get back in this thing with a big performance on Friday.  GO TWINS!

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There’s no way to analyze this game. It just was epic. All I can say is that last year, after attending the Twins-White Sox game last year where the Twins rallied from 5 runs down to tie on Denard Span’s triple, and win on Alexi Casilla’s single, I thought to myself a bit sadly, “I’ll be lucky if I ever see a baseball game remotely close to as great as that was.” Well, it happened.  Whereas that game was driven by a constant need to come back, this game was dominated by momentum changes and big moments – Punto’s throw home to force Cabrera at the plate, OCab’s double play, OCab’s home run, Magglio’s homerun, Cuddyer’s triple, Punto’s invaluable at-bats, Gomez’s single, Tolbert tying the game, Casilla’s game winner – and I’m probably missing a load of big moments from earlier in the game that seem like they happened a week ago. Rarely do sports fans witness drama like that, and it’s even more rare that it happens in a “win-or-go-home” context. It was a magnificent night, and we were all lucky to be a part of it.

Congratulations, Twins. Bring on the Yanks, and give ‘em hell.

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Aren’t we all glad to be wrong? Three weeks ago, just about every last baseball fan wrote the Twins off. The team had yet to sustain a good run of baseball, they were missing 60% of their rotation, and their most powerful hitter went on the shelf with a fractured back. Before they truly would right the ship, they’d also see their leadoff hitter and most valuable defensive player felled with a fastball to the head. Still, they did not quit. They would not say die. And now, over 50,000 people are going to cram into the dome tomorrow for at least one last game of electric baseball, electric in a way that will no longer be possible when the Twins make their much-needed move to greener, more natural pastures. The Twins officially control their own destiny. Play. Win. Repeat.

This team undoubtedly has flaws, and the fans know it. It would be foolish for anyone to look at this run of baseball and conclude that this team was optimally designed to grab a weak division by the horns, run away with it, and make a bona fide World Series run. That’s not the point right now. With the playoffs, baseball undergoes a curious transposition, morphing from a logical game of percentages and rational calculations to a game where the unexpected is as probable as the norm. In short, it becomes a game of the moment.

The Twins are not yet officially in the playoffs, but the energy and excitement surrounding this team for the past three weeks speaks an unmistakable truth:  This is playoff baseball, and we’re all damned thrilled to be a part of it. This is the moment. This is why we love baseball. GO TWINS!

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