Quick note here. Minnesota Public Radio is collecting Metrodome Memories from Twins fans. Below is the information directly from MPR. Being an avid listener of 89.3 The Current and a big fan of the work they do in general, I would encourage people to participate in this. If you’re unfamiliar with MPR , you can learn more about them at http://minnesota.publicradio.org/.

MPR News: What’s your Metrodome Memory?

After 28 years, the Twins are moving on from the Metrodome to greener pastures made of real grass. In commemoration of their last season at the Dome, MPR News is collecting memories of baseball at the Dome to feature on our Morning Edition program. We want to hear your funniest, strangest or simply most memorable moments at the Dome – whether on the field or in the stands. Share your story with us here: http://tinyurl.com/mprdome. Please contact Molly Bloom at mbloom [at] mpr [dot] org with any questions. We look forward to hearing from you!

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I meant to put this in this morning’s post but forgot. Andrew Kneeland, the former writer for this blog, is now writing for Twins Target at www.twinstarget.com. If you’ve never read his stuff before, I’d still recommend checking out his blog; he provides very comprehensive Twins coverage. I’ve linked to his blog on the blog roll as well.

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Unfortunately, the Twins weren’t able to take advantage of a number of opportunities to beat baseball’s best pitcher, Mr. Zack Greinke yesterday and take the sweep that I thought they would need.  Fortunately, the Tigers continued to play mediocre baseball and barely put up a fight in Chicago, leaving the Twins two games back with seven to play.

First, Greinke.  I’m in, sold, 100% positive about him.  He’s the AL Cy Young winner this year.   I could go into details on Greinke’s FIP, ERA+, strikeout to ball ratio, complete games, shutouts, ad infinitum, but I’ll leave that to more qualified people, namely, Joe Posnanski.  Posnanski has posted numerous arguments for Greinke for Cy, all of which I find extremely compelling.  For anyone who still clings to the notion that wins should have anything to do with this award, I offer the following three thoughts:

1) Greinke may not lead in raw wins, but consider his team.  Much like Brad Radke winning 20 games for the 68-win Twins in 1997, Greinke is gathering an impressive number of wins for the Royals this year.  To date, the Royals have won 64 games.  Greinke has been credited with 16 of those, good for a full 25% of his teams victories.  CC Sabathia, by contrast, has 19 wins for a team with 100 wins, good for 19% of his teams total.

2) Cy Young is different than MVP.  Cy Young isn’t about some abstract “value”, in which you can make different value arguments, like, “There’s more value in a good performance for a playoff team than a great performance for a mediocre team.”  It’s about the best pitcher.  Again, I could go into the advanced stats and whatnot, but I’ll just offer this anecdote.  Yesterday, the Twins had no shot against Greinke.  None.  A fastball that touches 98, a curveball that sneaks in at 71; he was absolutely untouchable.  He made Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel look silly at the most critical point of the game, getting Mauer to jaw with the umpire despite the fact that those balls were clearly in the strike zone.  This wasn’t a case of the Twins letting a pitcher beat them.  Greinke was in total control, period.

3) The more important “win” statistic to look at is Wins Above Replacement (that is, how many more wins a player gives a team over a readily-available, AAA-caliber player).  Greinke leads baseball with an 8.6 Wins Above Replacement.

In short, he’s the best pitcher in baseball, plain and simple.  This truly is one of the top 30 pitching performances in baseball history.  Playing on a bad baseball team is entirely irrelevant to whether Greinke is the best or not.  Now, getting back to the Twins.

Despite being owned by baseball’s best pitcher, Mr. Zack Greinke, the Twins were helped out in Chicago by the White Sox taking 2 of 3 from Detroit.  (Funny story – I saw a highlight of Gordon Beckham’s two-run shot the other night, and got all mad and cussed at the TV, until my wife said, “Um….that’s a good thing!”  Oh yeah…right.  Force of habit, I guess.)  The nice thing about this is that it doesn’t really change the Twins’ situation all that much.  Had they stolen a win from baseball’s best pitcher, Mr. Zack Greinke, they would head into Detroit one game back, but really, they’d still need to take 3 of 4 to avoid being a game back with three to play.  Granted, taking three of four now gets them only a tie, rather than a lead, but I think it’s safe to say the Twins have been playing for a one-game playoff.  Anything else is a bonus.

Aaron Gleeman points out that the odds for this series are a coin flip, with each team having a slight edge in two out of the four games.  With how well the Twins are playing, and how shaky the Tigers have been, Twins fans have to be excited about the local 9’s chances this week.

Personally, I’m thrilled.  For as frustrating as this season has been, this team has played excellent baseball since Justin Morneau went down on September 12th.  Having the capacity to respond to adversity as the Twins have should give Twins fans hope that they have a little extra to push the odds in their favor this week.  All you can ask as a fan is that your team play games that matter and that your team has a chance to win those games.  We’ve got that.  Gotta’ love September baseball.

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SWEEP!

For the second time in two years, the Twins have faced the Chicago White Sox in a crucial three-game September series and swept.  While this year’s series lacked the dramatics of last year, the result was the same, and this year’s sweep may well be more impressive.  The Twins, lacking 60% of their starting rotation, their former MVP winner and their leadoff batter (for the majority of the series), absolutely refuse to go away in an increasingly dramatic Central Division race.

Being without two of their three best players, the Twins rode strong performances from Orlando Cabrera, Michael Cuddyer and Nick Punto en route to sweeping the stinky socks in Chicago. All three of these players have been subject to criticism at various point this season.  Nonetheless, without key performances from these three players, the Twins would be all but finished in the Central Division.  To recap:

1. Orlando Cabrera has finally provided the “veteran presence” General Managers love to brag about.  That, or he’s just playing really well.  For the series, Cabrera went 5-12 with a triple, home run, walk and 5 RBI.  He also teamed with Nick Punto up the middle to provide some of the best infield defense I’ve seen from the Twins in some time, turning a few tough, critical double plays.  No matter whether you think the Cabrera trade was good or bad, or if you think the Twins should re-sign him or not, you have to acknowledge that he gave the Twins what they traded for in this series:  a clutch bat, a sure glove, and a solid clubhouse presence that may have gotten this team going in the first place, allegedly injecting some life into a tense clubhouse before the 7-0 drubbing the Twins handed out Monday night.
2. Michael Cuddyer continues to endanger his own back by carrying the offense ever since Justin Morneau was diagnosed with a season-ending back injury.  While I claimed that Cuddyer could be a rallying presence for the Twins in the face of this adversity, no one could have seen this sick performance coming.  Since Morneau’s final game on September 12^th against Oakland, all Cuddyer has done is go 16-42 with 3 doubles and 5 homers, good for a .380/.380/.800 line.  He’s also accrued a .84 Win Probability Added.  In short, Cuddyer’s offensive performance over the past two weeks on its own has been worth nearly one victory. It’s been quite a performance in a fabulous season for Cuddyer.  Coming off a frustrating two year stretch in which he fought off numerous freak injuries, Cuddyer has responded with his best season to date (his OPS+ for this year coming in four percent higher than in 2006, 128 to 124).  In a statistical oddity, he also has become the first player ever to hit two homers in one inning and hit for the cycle in the same season.  Now, he’s filling the hole of Minnesota’s second-best offensive player, posting numbers that would make Joe Mauer blush, and playing sparkling defense at first base to boot.  Cuddyer’s September play will have to go down as one of the greatest end-of-season clutch performances in team history.  Should the team actually make the postseason, fans might even remember it.
3. What can we even say about Nick Punto?  It’s quite possible that no Twin has been more polarizing for Twins fans.  I for one have always thought Punto is his own worst enemy – diving into first when it’s entirely unnecessary, dipping his shoulder on his too-long-swing, and failing to put forward any offensive production when he’s expected to.  Well, I haven’t seen a dive in weeks, the swing is shorter, and the offensive production is way up.  Punto is taking professional at bats that are reminding fans more of Mauer and Denard Span than, well, Nick Punto.  Punto’s performance in Chicago was particularly sweet, going 4-10 with 4 walks, a double and three RBI, good for a .327 Win Probability Added.  This is a continuing September trend for Punto, as he’s gone 18-55 with 5 doubles.  Most notably, he’s walked 9 times, giving him a September on-base percentage of .422.  Worth noting is that his total OBP continues to creep toward respectability, now sitting at .332.

Whether this is a result of some tangible Ewing Theory or not, the Twins have seen a significant step up from players not named Mauer, Span or Morneau.  In addition to Cabrera, Cuddyer and Punto, the Twins have seen Delmon Young post a .435/.440/.565 line over the last week; Matt Tolbert homered and has played excellent defense at third base, and Brendan Harris (remember him?) even got the ole’ bat warmed up again with two bone-crushing doubles off Mark Buerhle on Wednesday night.  The bullpen, for its part, has been superb.  As much as is possible, the Twins are firing on all cylinders.

It’s a good thing, because they’re going to need it.  As I write this, Detroit has just finished up a convincing three game sweep of the Indians.   The Tigers for their part seem to have put it together as well.  While it seems likely that Chicago should at least be able to snag a game from the Tigers, the Twins are about to face a huge test against one of the American League’s hottest teams in the Kansas City Royals, complete with their Cy Young contender* Zack Greinke.  (*Really, the fact that we can’t just pencil him in is borderline laughable.)  As I see it, a four game sweep in Detroit is highly unlikely.  The Twins have to sweep Kansas City and hope Chicago can take at least one game from the Tigers.  Should both those things happen, the Twins will need to take three of four from the Tigers in Detroit to be tied going into the last series of the season.  Of course, all the Twins would get as a reward for such a great stretch would be another round with Greinke and the Royals.

It’s somewhat ironic that in such a maligned division, a team as hot as the Twins faces such a stiff test playing only intra-division competition.  They aren’t getting any help from anyone else this time, and as well as they’ve played, they’re going to have to be even better the next ten days.  Bring it on. 

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Even if the Twins ultimately fail to catch the Tigers, games like this will never get old.  Nice professional, methodical smackdown for our boys last night.

Sounds like it was nothing serious with Span.  Hopefully he recovers quickly.

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