Quick note here. Minnesota Public Radio is collecting Metrodome Memories from Twins fans. Below is the information directly from MPR. Being an avid listener of 89.3 The Current and a big fan of the work they do in general, I would encourage people to participate in this. If you’re unfamiliar with MPR , you can learn more about them at http://minnesota.publicradio.org/.

MPR News: What’s your Metrodome Memory?

After 28 years, the Twins are moving on from the Metrodome to greener pastures made of real grass. In commemoration of their last season at the Dome, MPR News is collecting memories of baseball at the Dome to feature on our Morning Edition program. We want to hear your funniest, strangest or simply most memorable moments at the Dome – whether on the field or in the stands. Share your story with us here: http://tinyurl.com/mprdome. Please contact Molly Bloom at mbloom [at] mpr [dot] org with any questions. We look forward to hearing from you!

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I meant to put this in this morning’s post but forgot. Andrew Kneeland, the former writer for this blog, is now writing for Twins Target at www.twinstarget.com. If you’ve never read his stuff before, I’d still recommend checking out his blog; he provides very comprehensive Twins coverage. I’ve linked to his blog on the blog roll as well.

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Unfortunately, the Twins weren’t able to take advantage of a number of opportunities to beat baseball’s best pitcher, Mr. Zack Greinke yesterday and take the sweep that I thought they would need.  Fortunately, the Tigers continued to play mediocre baseball and barely put up a fight in Chicago, leaving the Twins two games back with seven to play.

First, Greinke.  I’m in, sold, 100% positive about him.  He’s the AL Cy Young winner this year.   I could go into details on Greinke’s FIP, ERA+, strikeout to ball ratio, complete games, shutouts, ad infinitum, but I’ll leave that to more qualified people, namely, Joe Posnanski.  Posnanski has posted numerous arguments for Greinke for Cy, all of which I find extremely compelling.  For anyone who still clings to the notion that wins should have anything to do with this award, I offer the following three thoughts:

1) Greinke may not lead in raw wins, but consider his team.  Much like Brad Radke winning 20 games for the 68-win Twins in 1997, Greinke is gathering an impressive number of wins for the Royals this year.  To date, the Royals have won 64 games.  Greinke has been credited with 16 of those, good for a full 25% of his teams victories.  CC Sabathia, by contrast, has 19 wins for a team with 100 wins, good for 19% of his teams total.

2) Cy Young is different than MVP.  Cy Young isn’t about some abstract “value”, in which you can make different value arguments, like, “There’s more value in a good performance for a playoff team than a great performance for a mediocre team.”  It’s about the best pitcher.  Again, I could go into the advanced stats and whatnot, but I’ll just offer this anecdote.  Yesterday, the Twins had no shot against Greinke.  None.  A fastball that touches 98, a curveball that sneaks in at 71; he was absolutely untouchable.  He made Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel look silly at the most critical point of the game, getting Mauer to jaw with the umpire despite the fact that those balls were clearly in the strike zone.  This wasn’t a case of the Twins letting a pitcher beat them.  Greinke was in total control, period.

3) The more important “win” statistic to look at is Wins Above Replacement (that is, how many more wins a player gives a team over a readily-available, AAA-caliber player).  Greinke leads baseball with an 8.6 Wins Above Replacement.

In short, he’s the best pitcher in baseball, plain and simple.  This truly is one of the top 30 pitching performances in baseball history.  Playing on a bad baseball team is entirely irrelevant to whether Greinke is the best or not.  Now, getting back to the Twins.

Despite being owned by baseball’s best pitcher, Mr. Zack Greinke, the Twins were helped out in Chicago by the White Sox taking 2 of 3 from Detroit.  (Funny story – I saw a highlight of Gordon Beckham’s two-run shot the other night, and got all mad and cussed at the TV, until my wife said, “Um….that’s a good thing!”  Oh yeah…right.  Force of habit, I guess.)  The nice thing about this is that it doesn’t really change the Twins’ situation all that much.  Had they stolen a win from baseball’s best pitcher, Mr. Zack Greinke, they would head into Detroit one game back, but really, they’d still need to take 3 of 4 to avoid being a game back with three to play.  Granted, taking three of four now gets them only a tie, rather than a lead, but I think it’s safe to say the Twins have been playing for a one-game playoff.  Anything else is a bonus.

Aaron Gleeman points out that the odds for this series are a coin flip, with each team having a slight edge in two out of the four games.  With how well the Twins are playing, and how shaky the Tigers have been, Twins fans have to be excited about the local 9’s chances this week.

Personally, I’m thrilled.  For as frustrating as this season has been, this team has played excellent baseball since Justin Morneau went down on September 12th.  Having the capacity to respond to adversity as the Twins have should give Twins fans hope that they have a little extra to push the odds in their favor this week.  All you can ask as a fan is that your team play games that matter and that your team has a chance to win those games.  We’ve got that.  Gotta’ love September baseball.

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SWEEP!

For the second time in two years, the Twins have faced the Chicago White Sox in a crucial three-game September series and swept.  While this year’s series lacked the dramatics of last year, the result was the same, and this year’s sweep may well be more impressive.  The Twins, lacking 60% of their starting rotation, their former MVP winner and their leadoff batter (for the majority of the series), absolutely refuse to go away in an increasingly dramatic Central Division race.

Being without two of their three best players, the Twins rode strong performances from Orlando Cabrera, Michael Cuddyer and Nick Punto en route to sweeping the stinky socks in Chicago. All three of these players have been subject to criticism at various point this season.  Nonetheless, without key performances from these three players, the Twins would be all but finished in the Central Division.  To recap:

1. Orlando Cabrera has finally provided the “veteran presence” General Managers love to brag about.  That, or he’s just playing really well.  For the series, Cabrera went 5-12 with a triple, home run, walk and 5 RBI.  He also teamed with Nick Punto up the middle to provide some of the best infield defense I’ve seen from the Twins in some time, turning a few tough, critical double plays.  No matter whether you think the Cabrera trade was good or bad, or if you think the Twins should re-sign him or not, you have to acknowledge that he gave the Twins what they traded for in this series:  a clutch bat, a sure glove, and a solid clubhouse presence that may have gotten this team going in the first place, allegedly injecting some life into a tense clubhouse before the 7-0 drubbing the Twins handed out Monday night.
2. Michael Cuddyer continues to endanger his own back by carrying the offense ever since Justin Morneau was diagnosed with a season-ending back injury.  While I claimed that Cuddyer could be a rallying presence for the Twins in the face of this adversity, no one could have seen this sick performance coming.  Since Morneau’s final game on September 12^th against Oakland, all Cuddyer has done is go 16-42 with 3 doubles and 5 homers, good for a .380/.380/.800 line.  He’s also accrued a .84 Win Probability Added.  In short, Cuddyer’s offensive performance over the past two weeks on its own has been worth nearly one victory. It’s been quite a performance in a fabulous season for Cuddyer.  Coming off a frustrating two year stretch in which he fought off numerous freak injuries, Cuddyer has responded with his best season to date (his OPS+ for this year coming in four percent higher than in 2006, 128 to 124).  In a statistical oddity, he also has become the first player ever to hit two homers in one inning and hit for the cycle in the same season.  Now, he’s filling the hole of Minnesota’s second-best offensive player, posting numbers that would make Joe Mauer blush, and playing sparkling defense at first base to boot.  Cuddyer’s September play will have to go down as one of the greatest end-of-season clutch performances in team history.  Should the team actually make the postseason, fans might even remember it.
3. What can we even say about Nick Punto?  It’s quite possible that no Twin has been more polarizing for Twins fans.  I for one have always thought Punto is his own worst enemy – diving into first when it’s entirely unnecessary, dipping his shoulder on his too-long-swing, and failing to put forward any offensive production when he’s expected to.  Well, I haven’t seen a dive in weeks, the swing is shorter, and the offensive production is way up.  Punto is taking professional at bats that are reminding fans more of Mauer and Denard Span than, well, Nick Punto.  Punto’s performance in Chicago was particularly sweet, going 4-10 with 4 walks, a double and three RBI, good for a .327 Win Probability Added.  This is a continuing September trend for Punto, as he’s gone 18-55 with 5 doubles.  Most notably, he’s walked 9 times, giving him a September on-base percentage of .422.  Worth noting is that his total OBP continues to creep toward respectability, now sitting at .332.

Whether this is a result of some tangible Ewing Theory or not, the Twins have seen a significant step up from players not named Mauer, Span or Morneau.  In addition to Cabrera, Cuddyer and Punto, the Twins have seen Delmon Young post a .435/.440/.565 line over the last week; Matt Tolbert homered and has played excellent defense at third base, and Brendan Harris (remember him?) even got the ole’ bat warmed up again with two bone-crushing doubles off Mark Buerhle on Wednesday night.  The bullpen, for its part, has been superb.  As much as is possible, the Twins are firing on all cylinders.

It’s a good thing, because they’re going to need it.  As I write this, Detroit has just finished up a convincing three game sweep of the Indians.   The Tigers for their part seem to have put it together as well.  While it seems likely that Chicago should at least be able to snag a game from the Tigers, the Twins are about to face a huge test against one of the American League’s hottest teams in the Kansas City Royals, complete with their Cy Young contender* Zack Greinke.  (*Really, the fact that we can’t just pencil him in is borderline laughable.)  As I see it, a four game sweep in Detroit is highly unlikely.  The Twins have to sweep Kansas City and hope Chicago can take at least one game from the Tigers.  Should both those things happen, the Twins will need to take three of four from the Tigers in Detroit to be tied going into the last series of the season.  Of course, all the Twins would get as a reward for such a great stretch would be another round with Greinke and the Royals.

It’s somewhat ironic that in such a maligned division, a team as hot as the Twins faces such a stiff test playing only intra-division competition.  They aren’t getting any help from anyone else this time, and as well as they’ve played, they’re going to have to be even better the next ten days.  Bring it on. 

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Even if the Twins ultimately fail to catch the Tigers, games like this will never get old.  Nice professional, methodical smackdown for our boys last night.

Sounds like it was nothing serious with Span.  Hopefully he recovers quickly.

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The Twins wrapped up a highly successful week with an intense, satisfying 3-0 win over the Detroit Tigers last night.  After losing three straight (one against Toronto, two against Oakland) the Twins rallied from a 3-0, eighth inning deficit against Cleveland on Monday to kick off a 5-0 week.  Ewing Theory lightening rod Michael Cuddyer may have saved the Twins season with a clutch 3-run home run (good to increase the Twins’ chances at a win by 38%).  Over the last week, Cuddyer is sporting a .370/.370/.704 line.  Cuddyer provided a nice bookend last night, launching a 2-run homer against the Tigers.  Brian Duensing tossed 6 1/3 shutout innings as the Twins closed the gap in the Central to 3 games.

According the Star Tribune, Duensing has now held opponents scoreless in 3 of his 4 starts.  This leads to some natural questions.  Is Duensing for real?  If not, is he due for a huge nose dive?  The answers are, probably, and nothing disastrous.  There is no exact science to evaluating young pitchers who have pitched a relatively low number of innings (a “small sample size”, as they say).  Looking at some peripheral numbers, though, we see that Duensing is not simply benefiting from beginners luck.

First, he is not stranding an inordinate number of base runners, stranding 77% of all his base runners.  This is maybe a little high, but it’s nothing alarming; were Duensing to be stranding something like 85-90% of his base runners, I would be worried.  Pitchers simply cannot keep pitching around jams at that rate (like Anthony Swarzak was early in the year, before his implosion).  Second, he is not benefiting too much by his defense.  The batting average on all balls in play off Dunesing stands at .288, which is almost precisely the league average; were this number more around the .240’s, we would have more reason to be worried.  Jarrod Washburn, for example, had an average on balls in play of around .240 when he was traded to Detroit.  He has since suffered significant setbacks due in part to injury, but also largely due to the fact that, for the first half of the year, his fielders were catching more balls than is normal for a big league pitcher.  He was bound to regress.  Third, Duensing just isn’t giving up much good contact.  His line drive percentage stands at just over 13%, with ground balls and fly balls roughly split (45% groundball, 42% flyball).  Having so few balls stung against him is certainly a good sign.  Finally, Duensing isn’t shooting himself in the foot by walking batters; he is walking a respectable 3.3 batters per nine innings.  This is not a great rate by any means, but it’s also decent for a young pitcher.  You can sum up Brian Duensing’s performance quite simply:  So far, he has gotten batters out on the merits of his own performance.

The one concern with Duensing is his home run rate.  So far, he has allowed home runs on only 5.4% of all fly balls hit against him.  This is low and probably unsustainable; he’s going to start giving up more home runs at some point.  However, given that 1) he isn’t giving up an extreme number of base runners (WHIP of  1.31), and 2) he only gives up 42% of balls in play as fly balls in the first place, the regress with home runs is unlikely to be disastrous.

In short, the Twins are very lucky to have had Duensing step up for this team at a critical point.  He might be due for a bad outing eventually, but I doubt he’s going to suffer any severe setbacks.

***********

The Twins play two more against the Tigers this weekend, with a strong chance to close the division gap to one game.  Carl Pavano goes today, and he pitched very well against the Tigers all year.   Sunday, Scott Baker takes the hill, having pitched superbly since June 1^st.  It’s somewhat unbelievable, but if the Twins can just scratch out two more wins, they’ll have positioned themselves for a chance to steal the Central Division and set up a first round playoff series against the Yankees.  Baseball:  What a game.

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"I will destroy you. Even on the bench."

(Note:  At the very least, this post is intended to be taken lightly, as a source of amusement.  At most, it’s meant to be taken as a ray of hope for Twins fans.  I hope you enjoy.)

This week, Twins fans received tragic news.  Justin Morneau, out for the season with a back fracture.  Out.  Back fracture.  Crap.

It’s easy to forget what life was like before Morneau came into the big leagues.  It’s easy to forget because people inevitably take for granted things that are the best for them, be it employers, spouses, friends or just sports fans.  It’s easy to forget because Morneau has been a ROCK at first base, playing in 612 of 633 possible games since the beginning of 2006.  It’s easy to forget because of the consistent, almost monotonous, run production Morneau has given the Twins every month for the past three-plus years:

Obviously, RBI don’t begin to tell an accurate picture of Morneau’s talent, but they do show that he has been the guy on this team who has driven in runs with remarkable consistency, at a truly elite rate.  There’s no question that losing Morneau’s bat is going to hurt the Twins’ run production.

What is left to be seen, however, is what this injury is going to do to the Twins’ chemistry and fire.  The Twins have been known to exceed expectations when counted out (see 2002 – 2004, 2006, 2008) and disappoint in years when they were expected to do well (see 2005, 2007, 2009 (up to this point, anyway)).  On that note, I’d like to introduce (or re-introduce) everyone to The Ewing Theory.  (Skeptics, I encourage you to bear with me.)

The Ewing Theory was originally developed by Dave Cirilli and explained by renowned ESPN Sports Columnist Bill Simmons.  To apply the Ewing theory, two conditions need to be met:

1. A star athlete receives an inordinate amount of media attention and fan interest, and yet his teams never win anything substantial with him (other than maybe some early-round playoff series).
2. That same athlete leaves his team (either by injury, trade, graduation, free agency or retirement) — and both the media and fans immediately write off the team for the following season.

When those two conditions are met, the Ewing Theory is in play, and the theory is that the team that loses a star player inevitably rallies around the bad luck and corresponding fatalism of the media and fans and out-performs expectations to a substantial level.  The best example of the Ewing theory was its eponymous origin, when Patrick Ewing tore his Achilles tendon in the Eastern Conference Finals against Indiana in 1999.  Written off for dead against Rik Smits and the Pacers, the Knicks won three of the next four games and advanced to the NBA Finals.  Simmons also documents examples of the Ewing Theory in play in baseball, if you care to peruse a classic internet article.

So, what to think of the Ewing theory?  Is this tenable?  Sure, it seems logical enough that role players could step up their game, focus a little harder, and players with raw potential may happen to realize that potential at just the right moment and string together good play, thus carrying a team beyond expectations.  After all, a full team is stronger than one player.  Of course, it’s not really testable, or if it is testable, I don’t really care to test it.  I just care whether or not it’s going to apply to the Twins this year.  And I think there’s a reason it could.

First, the two pre-conditions are satisfied.  While maybe not fitting the first condition perfectly (Mauer would be a true Ewing Theory situation (please GOD NO!)), Morneau fits it well enough.  After all, he is a “star athlete”.  A cynical fan could say that Morneau receives an “inordinate amount of media attention and fan interest”.  Despite his consistently gaudy numbers, the Twins have never had a sustained post-season run, and Morneau is notorious for fading down the stretch when the team needs him most.  From a baseball perspective, Morneau is an incredible talent.  From a fan’s perspective, which cares first and foremost about winning, Morneau is suspect.  (I don’t necessarily endorse that view; I’m just saying that, for purposes of the Ewing Theory, it works.)

The second pre-condition obviously fits the scenario.  Morneau has left the team (with injury).  Media and fans have taken this as a nail in the coffin.  “Bad Trumps Good,” read the Star Tribune’s headline after the news broke.  Fan blogs signaled doom for the team.  Crowds at the Metrodome have dwindled.  Both the fans and media took the news badly:  this team was in trouble.

Now, the Ewing Theory doesn’t just happen by itself.  The players have to make it happen, and I would add the following to the Ewing Theory.  Not only do players have to make it happen, but they have to be properly positioned to allow their talents to be absolutely maximized.  That is, if Morneau is out for the season, you can’t plug Matt Tolbert into the fourth spot and expect him to step up for Morneau.  The change has to happen in multiple areas, in ways that maximize the things that players are good at.  With that in mind, let’s consider what the Morneau injury does to the Twins.

First:  Ironically, Morneau’s injury should improve the outfield defense.  Michael Cuddyer has been pulled in from right field, leaving the Twins with a presumable everyday outfield of Delmon Young in left, Carlos Gomez in center, and Denard Span in right.  Young subbing for Cuddyer is a slight downgrade in outfield defense, according to FanGraphs UZR data, but that is more than offset by the improvement of having Gomez and Span in center and right, converting basically any flyball in play into an out.  Morneau being out obviously hurts the offense; still, the defense should be better, which should take some pressure off the offense.  (Of course, Gardenhire has so far put Kubel in right in order to DH Brian Buscher and Joe Mauer; the jury is still out on whether this plays out.)

Second:  Morneau’s injury gives Young and Gomez the potential to bat every day.  With young, inexperienced batters, everyday play is especially important.  It gives the player a chance to work on their mistakes daily.  Also, it takes some of the edge off.  A player need not worry about possibly being benched because of a bad game.  With Young and Gomez knowing they should have everyday playing time, they can relax and play a bit more freely.  Hopefully, this relaxed atmosphere, combined with the incentive to step up in Morneau’s absence, will result in improved offensive production.

Third:  Michael Cuddyer. Critical to the Ewing Theory is the intangible fact that the team rallies around adversity and uses that adversity to motivate themselves and exceed expectations.  In short, the Ewing Theory feeds off team chemistry.  Michael Cuddyer is the consummate chemistry guy, from his hand-bruising high-fives to his overall infectious good nature, Cuddyer is the perfect player to foster the team chemistry necessary to make the Ewing Theory work.  Now, of course Cuddyer isn’t literally replacing Morneau in the lineup.  He was formerly playing every day, and hasn’t even taken Morneau’s spot in the lineup.   Still, he’s now playing first base.  Any Twins player is going to miss seeing Morneau over there.  Seeing Chemistry Cuddy over there takes a lot of that sting off.

I really don’t mean to rip Morneau here.  I’m devastated that he won’t be playing the last few weeks.  There’s no reason to think he couldn’t have turned it on the last few weeks and been the difference for this team (well, aside from the fact that his back was fractured).  I think complaints of his late-season fades are over-blown and largely coincidental.  At the same time, a fan has to look at this and see the opportunities resulting from this injury.  The outfield defense should be better (I’m counting on you, Gardy).  Gomez and Young have a chance to prove their “potential” and step up in a huge way.  And the Twins couldn’t ask for a better chemistry guy to facilitate all this than Michael Cuddyer.  It’s a long shot, but the Twins have been counted long shots before.  For almost a decade now, they’ve at least given us a reason to watch.

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Having ripped on Delmon Young the other night, I’ve been forced to eat a bit of crow the last few days as he’s actually hit a few line drives and an extra-base hit or two.  Still, I stand by my original post and still believe that Carlos Gomez is a far superior option to Young most nights.  That said, I know the Twins are still intent on developing both players, and many fans have good arguments for not giving up on Young just yet.  I therefore find it extremely aggravating that Ron Gardenhire played a Young/Denard Span/Michael Cuddyer OF for Scott Baker’s start yesterday and is playing a Span/Gomez/Cuddyer outfield for Nick Blackburn’s start tonight.  Baker is one of the league’s most fly-ball prone pitchers, with 47% of all batted balls off him going for flyballs, 20% line drives and only 33% ground balls (I rounded the numbers).  Meanwhile Blackburn, though not an elite groundball pitcher, gives up 45% ground balls on all balls in play, compared to 18% line drives and only 37% flyballs.  If Ron Gardenhire is trying to simultaneously develop two young outfielders AND give the Twins the best opportunity to win, he should have flipped the days that Gomez and Young played.  After all, it seems for a pitcher who gives up a lot of fly balls, you’d want a lot of fielders who can cover a lot of ground like Span and Gomez can, and for a more ground-ball reliant pitcher like Blackburn, you could handle losing some coverage, given that there aren’t likely going to be as many flyballs.  Of course, we all know the Twins don’t rely on detailed statistics, much less anything advanced like UZR, FIP/xFIP or wOBA.  They seem satisfied to rely on whether a player “gets after it” or “plays the game the right way”. (Ironically, it has been shown they haven’t done very well this year)

Having vented, not only do I feel better, but I also hopefully have somehow reverse-jinxed Nick Blackburn and he’ll give up 20 flyballs tonight and we’ll all be glad Gomez was in the OF.  Right…

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1. The Twins just finished up a frustrating series in Toronto.  Going into this series, the Twins hadn’t had any success in Toronto recently and hadn’t ever mustered a win against Roy Halladay.  After yet another disappointing/maddening series against the Indians and a Tigers sweep in Tampa Bay, the Twins chances at playing meaningful games the rest of the year seemed bleak.  Then, of course, the Tigers promptly turned kitty against the Royals and got swept in Kansas City.  The Twins, as has been the case all season, offered a few bright spots in Toronto but nothing to offer fans a legitimate hope that they can put together a last-minute run into the postseason.  After the teams managed to split the first two games on the basis of two big innings for both offenses, the Twins gained the upper hand with a gutsy performance against Halladay.  Justin Morneau finally came through in a big spot for the Twins, launching a clutch home run off Halladay, Michael Cuddyer clubbed a huge two-out double to provide a three-run cushion, and the combo of Jose Mijares (whose slider, just from watching, looks unhittable) and Joe Nathan slammed the door on the Jays.  With a chance then to take the series 3-to-1, the Twins naturally mustered little offense off Brett Cecil, he of the 5.39 FIP/5.46 ERA.  I’m all for writing off games like this as bad timing against a bad pitcher who happened to pitch well, but if the Twins are going to put together the run they need, these are the sorts of games they absolutely cannot lose.  They’re running out of time to stop losing them.
2. Another bright spot in the series has been Orlando Cabrera’s performance.  For the series, Cabrera went 5-13 with a double and a home run, tying Wednesday’s game on his homer against Halladay and getting a game-tying RBI single in the fifth inning today.  It was a nice series for a player who, since being acquired at the trade deadline, has posted a .254 batting average with an abysmal .280 on-base percentage (OBP).  (Just for context, a .330 OBP is acceptable for a player with good defense; a .340-.350 OBP begins to move from respectable to above-average.)  Why in the world Cabrera continues to hit in front of Joe Mauer is beyond me.  This means that 72% of the time Mauer hits, the batter in front of him hasn’t gotten on, but more importantly it means that in clutch situations late in games, Cabrera gets a crack at making an impact before Mauer does.  (See:  9/10/2009, Minnesota at Toronto, seventh inning.)  I’m not joining the fire Gardenhire campaign, but this is unconscionable managing.
3. A true bright spot for the Twins over the last month has been the revival of Jesse Crain.  Since being recalled on July 23, Crain has pitched 22.1 innings, allowing 8 walks, 18 hits, and most importantly 0 homeruns. I’m hoping to have a more detailed write-up on Crain next week, but unquestionably he looks better.  It may be too little, too late for this season, but hopefully Crain can build on this for next year.  A bullpen with improved-Crain, Neshek (I know, this isn’t a guarantee), Guerrier and Mijares setting up Joe Nathan is going to look a lot better in that new park than a bullpen featuring the likes of Sean Henn, R.A. Dickey, Bobby Keppel and the corpse of Matt Guerrier (which we exhibited last year and early this year).
4. Who would have thought we’d see Carl Pavano be the pitcher that finally could go toe-to-toe with Halladay and get the Twins a gutsy win.  Since coming in a trade described as desperate by some local scribes*, all Pavano has done is start seven games, pitch 44.1 innings while giving up 2 homers, 45 hits and only 11 walks (good for a 1.26 WHIP and 3.01 FIP).  This was an unquestionably savvy move; bravo, Bill Smith.  Despite his good peripheral numbers, Pavano still sports a rather ugly 4.92 ERA and will always be remembered as the injury bust of all-time.  He may end up being relatively cheap to keep around next year; hopefully the Twins can make it happen.   (*Of course, sometimes it’s wise to go to other sources for proper evaluation of such moves.)
5. Moving forward:  The Twins face Oakland at home for three games and then host Cleveland for three more.  The Tigers, for their part, start a seven-game home stand against Toronto and Kansas City.  Given that the Tigers are playing at home and the Twins have struggled all year against Cleveland, the Twins again find themselves looking at bleak odds for the postseason.  It’s not too late…yet.

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At the start of the season, the Minnesota Twins were said to have more outfielders than spots available.  “We have outfielders that can start for most teams,” opined Denard Span, back in spring training.  Gardenhire also boasted of his embarrassment of outfield riches, claiming that he wasn’t even sure how the playing time would play out.

Three-quarters of the way through the season, the conventional wisdom seems to be that the Twins were overly optimistic in their predictions.  The Twins seemingly have two solid everyday outfielders in Span and Michael Cuddyer, and two fourth options in Gomez and Young.  While Gomez offers vastly superior defense, base-running and humorous fall-down moments, Young has gotten basically equal playing time this year.  This would make sense if Young was lighting the world on fire at the plate to compensate for his defense, but he’s not, posting a measly .264/.288/.383.  His OPS totals for the last three years have been paltry:  .723, .741, and .671 this year.  Gomez, for his part, has looked almost worse at .239/.292/.351, his OPS totals for the last three years being .592, .657, and .643 this year.

At this point, a very logical argument to make is that Gomez’s defense makes him more valuable to the Twins than Young – the basic argument being:  Bad Offense + Great Defense = average player (Gomez), and Moderately-Better-But-Still-Bad Offense + Terrible Defense = terrible all around player (Young).  I don’t want to make this argument because it’s been made in other places previously, relies on complex defensive metrics that are entirely valid but cumbersome to explain, and ignores the reality that you have two young players that could still develop on offense.  In Young’s case, he’s a big strong guy who seems like he should be able to hit for power.  In Gomez’s case, he’s an athletic freak who may be the fastest player in the game and needs to hone his plate discipline.  Unfortunately for Young, even ignoring defense, Gomez should still be playing more often than Young.  To understand why, we have to look deeper than the triple-slash line.

First, Delmon Young.  When the Twins traded Matt Garza for Young, the thought was that they were getting an outfielder who could hit for power and lessen the blow of losing Torii Hunter to the Angels.  After all, Young posted a very solid .476 slugging percentage as a rookie, hitting thirteen homeruns and driving in 93 runners at the age of twenty-one.  Since then, of course, Young has yet to post a slugging percentage above .410, despite having about 3 ½ big league seasons and over 1600 at bats under his belt.  For comparison, consider another below-average defensive corner outfielder who developed into a decent power threat:  Michael Cuddyer.  By the time Cuddyer reached 1500 AB’s in 2006, he was on his way to a season where he slugged .504; he had also previously posted slugging percentages of .422, .440, .431 and .429.  By the time he reached the 1500 AB mark, Cuddyer had seemingly put it together and become a good major league hitter.

We have yet to see any such progression from Delmon Young, and it doesn’t look like he’s going to put it together any time soon.  Young for his career has hit 50.4% of all batted balls on the ground, 30.3% fly balls and 19.2% line drives.  It obviously doesn’t look like he’s going to hit many homeruns if over half of his batted balls don’t ever have a chance to get over the fence.  Some other batters that pound the ball into the ground at similar include Joe Mauer, who obviously has become a homerun hitter this year.  However, it’s worth noting that his ground ball rate is the second lowest of his career, and his home run total this year possibly has been inflated by almost 23% of all fly balls resulting in home runs.  (It could also inflated just because he’s Joe freaking Mauer.) Some others with over a 50% ground ball rate include Denard Span and Luis Castillo (over 60% for his career).  The obvious difference between Young and these players is that Mauer, Span and Castillo all walk, whereas Young has a career on base percentage of .320 and strikeout/walk ratio of roughly 5-to-1.  In short, unless Young starts elevating more balls, developing an elite Home Run rate, or transforms himself into a patient hitter who frequently walks, we’re unlikely to see his offense stop regressing as it has over the last three years, much less improve to any substantial level.

Gomez, on the other hand, is another story.  Acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade, Gomez had been rushed through the Mets system without adequate time to develop his skills.  He was known as a speedy player who could play great outfield defense with extremely limited offensive (in)abilities.  The problems with Gomez’s offense were readily apparent last year, as he posted a measly .258/.296/.360 line, which was inflated by his ridiculously successful bunting.  For the year, he was successful on almost 46% of his bunt hit attempts, good for a whopping 30 bunt hits.  Taking away a .455 batting average on 66 bunt attempts, Gomez was a .230 hitter.  It’s hardly surprising then, that this year, with only 5 bunt hits, Gomez is hitting .239.

Still, the fact remains:  Carlos Gomez is a better option on offense than Delmon Young, and the reason is that, where Gomez shows signs of turning a corner, Young shows no indication of improving power or ability to get on base.  While Gomez’s on-base percentage is roughly the same this year as last year, he’s showing signs of improving his plate discipline.  Consider that last year Gomez swung at almost 37% of all pitches outside the strike zone.  This year, he’s reduced his undisciplined swings by 8%.  Also, when Gomez does hit the ball, he shows the raw ability to do so more effectively than Young.  Let’s compare Gomez and Young’s batted ball statistics for the year:

Not only does Gomez make contact more often than Young, he also makes good contact more often than Young by getting 4.7% more line drives than Young.  Now, one could argue that this is a rather small sample size, given that Young and Gomez have been basically a platoon this year in the outfield.  Certainly, a larger sample size would be better, but when comparing them, we have to take what we’ve got.  What we can do is look at this year’s numbers, as well as the progress or regress each player has exhibited from last year.

The interpretation here gets a little tricky with the batted ball percentages, but you can glean some general trends from this.  Gomez has improved his contact percentage while Young has fallen off.  Gomez has also has started stinging the ball more by hitting a good percentage of line drives and cutting down his fly ball rate slightly.  His plate discipline has also greatly improved.  Young, on the other hand, has had a significant drop in his contact percentage.  He has also shown better plate discipline, but not by nearly the margin that Gomez has improved; indeed, Young still swings at almost 9% more balls out of the zone than Gomez does.  Young makes worse contact this year than last year, turning some line drives into fly balls.  To be fair, he’s also not hitting the ball on the ground as much, but compared to just about any big power hitter, he’s not hitting nearly enough fly balls to be a power hitter, nor does he show any signs of improving his plate discipline to a point where he could be an on-base player.

In short, Gomez is showing marked signs of improvement in some area and slight improvement in other areas.  I would argue his plate discipline is the most promising sign, given that a player with his speed should excel with an average ability to get on base.  Young, on the other hand, isn’t showing improvement in any areas to warrant claims that he’s going to turn it around and the Twins should continue to be patient with him.  At 1600 career at-bats, we may be looking at all we’re going to get with Delmon Young.  Gomez, on the other hand, has less than 1,000 career at bats and is showing peripheral signs of improving.  If there’s a player it’s worth being patient with on offense, it’s Gomez.

(Of course, consider defense, and it’s absolutely no contest.)

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