Whew, I’m almost BREAKING NEWS’d out.

According to ESPNChicago, the Twins were the team that was awarded the Rich Harden claim, and not a National League team as I had thought. Harden has been a great pitcher for the second half of the season this year, posting a 1.80 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.820. His combined ERA+ is 110, which is significant considering how poor he was to begin the year: 5.47 ERA, 1.541 WHIP.

Harden becomes a free agent in five weeks, and I highly doubt the Cubs trade him. If Chicago chooses to hold on to Harden for the rest of the season and allow him to walk as a free agent they will receive two draft picks as compensation because of Harden’s Type-A status. I doubt any team will be willing to offer more value than that to the Cubs for just six starts.

It’s a fine attempt by Bill Smith, and major props to him if he can pull it off, but I suspect the Cubs will simply rescind Harden and allow him to talk as a free agent. When Winter Meetings come around, though, I would love for the Twins to attempt to land Harden to a modest contract.

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The tallest player in the major-leagues is now a member of the Minnesota Twins, according to an MLB press release. The 6′11” Rauch is a former third-round pick by the Chicago White Sox, but was traded to the Expos back in 2004. He became a Diamondback in mid-2008.

Rauch is 30 years old and has an ERA of 4.14 this year, which helps make him 9 percent better than league average, according to his ERA+ of 109. (Rauch has a career ERA of 3.87 and and an ERA+ of 112.) Rauch has a decent SO/BB ratio of 2.06, and walks just under three batters per nine innings while striking out just under six per.

His pitch arsenal includes a low-90s fastball, a mid-80s slider, a high-80s cutter, a mid-70s curveball, and a mid-80s changeup. Clearly, Rauch knows how to throw a ton of pitches, and he used to be a starter before a series of injuries forced him to the bullpen.

Rauch is under contract for the 2010 season at around $3 million, so this trade will have a much higher impact than the Mahay acqusition. The Twins reportedly gave up a Player To Be Named Later, which hopefully isn’t a top prospect.

Posted in Uncategorized No Comments

Buster Olney of EPSN is reporting that the Twins have agree to terms with the Royals regarding veteran lefty reliever Ron Mahay. Mahay sports a bloated 4.79 ERA this season, but becomes a free agent when the season is over five weeks from now. The Twins gave up someone for Mahay, but considering that he had almost zero value to the Royals I’m sure it wasn’t much at all.

Mahay is a fly ball pitcher who throws a low-90s fastball, low-80s slider, and a mid-80s changeup.

[This story was first reported by FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal.]

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(Via publicradio.org)

When diagnosing the many problems of the 2009 Minnesota Twins, a combined team ERA of 4.76 is especially tough to swallow. It’s actually quite hard to wrap your head around how bad the majority of the Twins’ pitching staff must be, considering they boast three relievers with ERAs under 3.00.

But then there’s Scott Baker, an enigma in every sense of the word. His 4.47 ERA is above-average on the team, but still quite hideous compared to other “aces” in the league.

How does a pitcher who has won his last six decisions (with a 3.10 ERA during that stretch) not have more attractive statistics? Truth is, Baker has pitched brilliantly as of late, but his results aren’t the kind you see in a box score.

Baker’s first nine starts this year were nothing short of disastrous. The stats being thrown around by irked fans and concerned bloggers were not pretty: a 2-6 record, 6.32 ERA, .821 opposing OPS.

But digging deeper than that, one could find that he also sported a career-worst 2.4 HR/9IP. Let that sink in for a moment: every nine innings Baker completed (which would take at least two or three starts for him to accomplish) came bundled together with more than two home runs.

Baker is known as a fly-ball pitcher, but this was ridiculous. Could this be the same hurler who went 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA last year?

Despite looking every bit like the ‘98 Andy Larkin early in the season. Since the beginning of June through two days ago Baker has lowered his ERA to 3.50 and his HR/9IP rate to a very acceptable 0.72.

What caused the massive shift in success? Here’s a graph of the pitch locations Baker threw during his start on April 22, his second of the season (courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net).

Woah. Talk about lack of control. Home plate umpire Tom Hallion was especially generous in his strikezone that day, giving Baker 17 strikes that should have been balls. Even so, Baker retired just fourteen batters during his outing, giving up 10 hits and six runs, all of which came off of the three home runs Baker surrendered.

Now that we’ve established just how awful Baker was for that first game of the double-header against the Red Sox, let’s take a deeper look at his delivery and compare it side-by-side to his recent complete game, two-hit shutout against the Indians. (His complete game is on top.)

On Aug. 14, Baker’s cutter crossed the plate over six inches to the left of where it crossed on April 22. Most important, however, is the fact that the curveball that was nonexistent in April was finding the plate in August and that his slider moved into the strike zone.

An effective slider and curveball are critical pitches in Baker’s arsenal simply because they’re (usually) extremely tough to hit. At about this time last year, according to data compiled by ubelmann of the WGOM, opposing hitters whiffed at 26 percent of Baker’s sliders and 20 percent of his curveballs.

This year, opponents are missing his slider 27.1 pct of the time and his curveball 23.3 pct of the time in 2009, according to both Josh Kalk’s pitch f/x tool and Fangraphs.com fellow blogger TwinsFanc1981.

Sounds horrible, right? Although I don’t have access to (who am I kidding? I simply can’t find) the game-by-game pitch version of breakdowns listed above, I’m sure both Baker’s curve and slider are missing far more bats than they were at the start of the season.

37 percent of Baker’s entire pitch count came from the first nine games of the season, and just looking at the box scores, you can tell that he didn’t miss many bats during that stint.

Lately, though, Baker has put up excellent numbers and his success has been plainly evident. More important for Baker, however, is the fact that his curveball and slider are finding the plate and missing opposing bats. His unattractive ERA aside, Baker is back on the fast-path to league-wide recognition.

The Twins may really have an ace, after all.

Originally posted on TwinsFix.com

Posted in Speculation, Statistics 5 Comments Tags: Scott Baker

The following players will participate in the Arizona Fall League, on the Mesa Solar Sox team:

- Alex Burnett, New Britian
- Steven Hirschfeld, Fort Myers
- Mike McCardell, New Britain
- Spencer Steedley, New Britain
- Chris Parmelee, Fort Myers
- Steve Singleton, New Britain
- Rene Tosoni, New Britain

Posted in Uncategorized 2 Comments Tags: Alex Burnett, Chris Parmelee, Mike McCardell, minor leagues, Rene Tosoni, Spencer Steedley, Steve Singleton, Steven Hirschfeld

Ben Sheets - A reliable option for '10?

When the present looks bleak, the easiest escape route is to look to the future.

Without much exaggeration, the 2009 Minnesota Twins starting rotation has been the most disappointing in recent history. Three of the original five starters (Kevin Slowey, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins) are currently on the disabled list and most wouldn’t be surprised if they remained shut down for the rest of the year.

With the lowest of expectations, one would expect a few pitchers next year to, as my colleague Marty Andrade put it, “catch the competency virus, right?”

Here are who I think will occupy the starting rotation of the Twins as they open next year in the new Target Field. Odds are they’ll be more impressive than the bunch we’ve fielded this season.

1) Scott Baker, RHP, 28 years old

Despite a rough beginning to this season, Scott Baker has been the most consistent starter in 2009 for the Twins. His 4.62 ERA may not impress many, but his intangibles and ground ball rates are improving.

In 2009, Baker has walked 29 batters and struck out 120. Since the start of June, Baker is 9-1 with an ERA of 3.66. Perhaps most noticeable, though, is the fact that he has only allowed eight home runs during these past fifteen starts. He surrendered 14 long balls during his first nine starts.

For as prone to the fly ball as Baker is, that is no small accomplishment.

Baker has all the makings of an ace, but has only shown glimpses of his potential brilliance. While he needs to continue this impressive streak to convince people of his future, Baker should be given every opportunity to succeed in 2010.

2) Ben Sheets, RHP, 30 years old

Someone is going to overpay for Ben Sheets. Why not the Twins?

Even though the free agent Sheets hasn’t thrown from a professional mound this year and some question his ability to recover from injuries, the truth of the matters is that Sheets has a ton of talent. How else could he have put up sub-4 ERAs while hurt?

A modest three-year offer to Sheets couldn’t hurt the Twins. They have money available to them with the coming of Target Field, and the only other pending payment is to the bank account of Joe Mauer.

(Let me be clear: If signing Sheets (or anybody, for that matter) hurts the Twins’ ability to re-sign Mauer in the least, the Twins should by no means pursue it. Mauer is the heart and soul of this operation and his future status in Minnesota is obviously the priority.)

Sheets would be more expensive than we’re used to in Minnesota, but his track record shows that he would be worth every penny.

3) Kevin Slowey, RHP, 26 years old

Kevin Slowey, a precision artist, struggled with his right wrist all season and eventually opted for season-ending surgery a few weeks ago.

Despite the injury, Slowey still managed to post a BB/K ratio of 15:75 while getting demolished by opposing batters to the tune of .309/.340/.503.

2010 will almost certainly be a progression to the mean for Slowey, as last year Slowey tossed three complete games (two shutouts) while displaying his control with a BB/K ratio of 24:123 as a 24-year old.

4) Nick Blackburn, RHP, 28 year old

If four starts are subtracted from Blackburn’s record this year, the young righty has an ERA of 3.23 to go with an attractive 8-4 record. Those four starts, however, were so awful that they bloat his season ERA up to 4.27.

Blackburn has had an off-year as well. For a 27-year old, that is hardly inexcusable. There is little doubt that Blackburn will return to the quality end-of-the-rotation starter he seemed destined to be.

Last year Blackburn boasted an ERA of 4.05 to go with an 11-11 record as a 25-year old. That’s not awful, and certainly better than what the Twins have been forced to deal with this year. If Blackburn can progress to those kind of numbers, and erase horrible games, there is little doubt that he would be welcome in the Minnesota rotation.

5) Open Competition

If all goes according to plan, this place in the rotation will have more shuffling than any given Vegas casino. After an atrocious season from Francisco Liriano that resulted in a lengthy trip to the disabled list, combined with a less-than-stellar year from Glen Perkins, there is no clear-cut favorite to win the final spot in the starting rotation.

There are no shortage of horses in the running, though. Rookies Jeff Manship, Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber, and Anthony Swarzak, and Brian Duensing would all love to be on this staff, but only Swarzak has even a short major league track record. And we all know how that experiment went.

Duensing has started two games for the Twins this season with decent results. He may be the favorite out of those not-named Liriano or Perkins, but there is really no telling who will win the competition.

Posted in Prediction 3 Comments

If there were a Twitter trend page* specifically for the Minnesota Twins, Joe Mauer and his quest for .400 would undoubtedly be at the top. Terms have been coined for the chase, and there are very few baseball fans who don’t want to see Mauer eclipse that elusive .400 mark.

*Unless you live under the biggest of rocks, you heard that Brett Favre signed with the Vikings yesterday. The whole process — from Favre getting off the plane in Minneapolis, to his riding shotgun in Childress’ SUV, to his signing a deal and heading right out to the practice field — was widely publicized throughout the country. Obviously, a Twitter trend yesterday was going to revolve around Brett Favre.

Millions of tweets were sent yesterday regarding the aging quarterback, apparently named #Farve. That’s right, F-A-R-V-E. One of the most recognizable quarterbacks in history can’t get people to spell his name right. I get that it’s pronounced F-A-R-V-U-H, but really? Farve? Anyhow, that’s my non-baseball talk of the month here at TwinsFix. If you want to read my entire take on the Favre situation, check out my other blog, VikingVigil.com.

With the postseason schedule falling into place, the main debate this year is “who will win the MVP?” The majority of baseball fans agree that Mauer’s flirtation with .400 this year is simply too good to beat, and he will undoubtedly win the award even if he falls short of .400. Others, (mainly Yankee fans), think that Mark Teixeira deserves the title.

Are you serious?

Mauer leads the league in batting average by 14 points, on-base-percentage by 24 points, slugging by 74 (!) points, and OPS by 112 (!!) points. Clearly, Mauer is having one of the best seasons by a catcher in baseball history. His OPS+ this year is a staggering 193. No, you read that right. An OPS+ of 193. In fact, if he keeps this up it’ll be the single greatest offensive season by a catcher since 1901.

And Mauer’s no slouch defensively, either. He’s almost a lock to win the Gold Glove this year.

Add in the fact Mauer’s having this season while playing the most grueling defensive position in baseball (the man squats behind home more than any bum I’ve met) and you get a truly memorable season.

How anyone can claim that Teixeira’s season has been better is well beyond my comprehension.

Posted in Statistics 2 Comments Tags: Joe Mauer, MVP, non-baseball

According to “a person familiar with the talks,” (via Joe C. of the Star Tribune) the Twins have signed first-round pick Kyle Gibson for $1.8 million, which is slightly above the recommended slot value for the 22nd overall pick, $1.287 million.

Gibson will most likely start next season either with the New Britain Rock Cats or Fort Myers Miracle and is instantly a top-five prospect in the Minnesota organization.

UPDATE___

Click here for MLB.com’s scouting report on Gibson. He was originally projected to be a top-ten pick in the 2009 Draft, but an injury to his throwing forearm caused him to plummet to the Twins at 22. Gibson believed he was worth top-ten talent money-wise, while the Twins refused to go too far above the recommended slot value. As late as yesterday the two parties appeared to be at least $1 million apart in negotiations, with Gibson wanting $2.5 million and the Twins offering somewhere near $1.5 million.

The final deal, as announced by Joe C., was for $1.8 million.

Gibson projects to be a top-of-the-rotation starter and has the upside of a future Cy Young. He has three plus pitches he can throw for strikes: a fastball, slider, and changeup. He is quite tall and skinny, and and currently 21 years old.

When the Twins lost last night to the Rangers, it seemed the time was right to pull the plug in the “being competitive” tub, and turn out attention towards being a spoiler. It wasn’t an exciting night on the basepaths, but the signing of Gibson is some of the best news this franchise has given its fans this year.

Many congratulations go out to both Gibson and the Twins front office for making this deal happen.

Posted in Breaking News No Comments Tags: 2009 draft, Breaking News, Kyle Gibson

Originally published over at B/R.

Orlando Cabrera

Some problems are too big for one man to solve. Some men are too small to solve a big problem.

For Minnesota Twins fans, it is clear that there is a problem with their baseball team, and it’s a big one.

Not the kind of problem a miniature fire extinguisher could put out, mind you, but a flame that requires multiple water hoses.

Orlando Cabrera is a miniature fire extinguisher. Helpful?

In a small sense, though not on a large scale.

Aaron Gleeman put it best in his most recent blog entry:

“Trading for two months of a thoroughly mediocre Cabrera and sticking his measly .322 career on-base percentage in front of Mauer and Morneau is like handing someone trapped in the desert one glass of water and then walking away. Better than nothing? Absolutely. Doing something that you can point to as improving the situation? Sure. But in the grand scheme of things, useless. One glass of water won’t get anyone out of a desert and one mediocre shortstop won’t get the Twins … well, anything.”

This “glass of water” could morph into monsoon rains, but the likelihood of that happening is dim. After all, just like Gleeman said, Cabrera is nothing more than a mediocre shortstop with a “rapidly deteriorating” glove.

Without the pleas for help from the three biggest names on the Minnesota roster—Mauer, Morneau, Nathan—there is every reason to believe that the Twins would have stood pat at the deadline and played with the cards dealt to them for the final months of the season.

After all, why deviate from the modus operandi established long before Bill Smith took the reigns?

Cabrera is 3-8 with a walk and a strikeout through his first two games as a Twin. Small sample size? Very much so. An impressive start? Hardly.

All Cabrera gives Minnesota offensively is another player with a career sub-.400 on-base-percentage for Gardenhire to shove into the two-hole in the lineup. It takes a special batter to fit perfectly in the second position of a lineup, and Cabrera doesn’t fit that mold. That doesn’t mean Gardenhire won’t make him fitthough.

The Twins need much more than a quality second-batter to stay in contention in their division. They need solidification in both their bullpen and starting rotation as well. A timely trade could do the trick, or the Twins could dive biack into theirminor-league system.

The class of the rest of the division has gone up, and the Twins have some work to do to catch up.

So, once again, some problems are too big for one man to solve. Without help, that is.

Posted in Opinionated Musings No Comments Tags: Orlando Cabrera, Ron Gardenhire

A weak division just got a whole lot stronger.

With a combined winning percentage of .470, the AL Central is not regarded as a power-house. The Wild Card will almost certainly come from another division and the national media will largely ignore this combination of Midwestern baseball teams.

But everyone was watching on Friday as the AL Central made the biggest headlines up until the Trade Deadline. Let’s review each team that made a move and take a look at their chances as we near the stretch run of the baseball schedule.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers acquired left-handed starting pitcher Jarrod Washburn from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Luke French and 20-year old minor-leaguer Mauricio Robles.

French is a five-year-younger carbon-copy of Washburn. Robles isn’t a top prospect, but could develop into a solid middle of the rotation starter in three or four years.

Washburn has had some success against the AL Central in his career, holding opponents to a batting average of .250. He is under contract through the end of this season and could very possibly return to Seattle for the 2010 season.

In the end, the Tigers probably paid too much for a half-year rental. Washburn will make a handful of solid starts this August and September and could have a large impact if Detroit plays baseball this October.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox made an offer for San Diego Padres ace Jake Peavy back in May, but Peavy made use of his full no-trade clause and refused to be traded to Chicago. This time around, though, Peavy embraced the idea of pitching in the Windy City.

Peavy is currently on the disabled list and there are no guarantees that he will even pitch this year. Being under contract through 2012, though, the White Sox probably had the right to trade away quite a bit of minor-league talent.

Kenny Williams is considered by some to be the most aggressive GM in baseball and he rarely holds back when making deals. What the Padres received in compensation, however, could be considered highway robbery.

According to Baseball America, the White Sox gave up their second- and third-best prospects, along with two other decent minor-leaguers.

Minnesota Twins

Normally stoic at the deadline, the Twins traded for shortstop Orlando Cabrera. While this could be seen as a publicity move to appease the three superstars who went on the record to express their desire for the Twins to make a move (Mauer, Morneau, and Nathan), Cabrera could prove to be an upgrade.

While the infield shuffle hasn’t been determined yet, there is little doubt that Nick Punto will remain, despite the calls for his removal from all corners of Minnesota.

Cabrera could help solidify a normally-shaky bottom third of the order for the Twins, or he could slide into the two-hole. Wherever he fits into the batting order, though, he is sure to provide an offensive upgrade over Punto, Casilla, and Harris.

This trade isn’t enough to put the Twins over the top in the AL Central, but when the PR aspect is considered, general manager Bill Smith made a great move.

Cleveland Indians

Talk about a firesale. The Indians traded away their best hitter in Victor Martinez, their best pitcher in Cliff Lee, and a decent outfielder in Ben Francisco. They have given fans the clear sign that they have given up on the 2009 campaign, despite early projections that had them reaching the World Series.

Twelve games back in the AL Central, though, and it is evident that the Indians cannot overcome the three teams in front of them.

In return for the unloading of Martinez, the Indians received Nick Hagadone, ranked as the third best prospect in the Red Sox organization. Cleveland netted much more in return for Lee, ripping the Phillies’ minor-leagues to shreds.

Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald, and Jason Knapp will all report to a team in the Cleveland organization. These prospects are ranked as No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, and No. 10, by Baseball America, respectfully. Quite the load.

While the Indians threw in the white flag on 2009, they will return to the top of the AL Central very soon.

The most active division in baseball this Trade Deadline, the AL Central is gearing up for an incredibly competitive stretch run. Only time can tell how these trades will work out and who will end up on top.

Originally published on B/R.

Posted in Game Thoughts No Comments Tags: AL Central, Orlando Cabrera, transactions