Justin Morneau - Batting 2nd?
Ed. Note: First off, my apologies for the lack of updates lately. I’m spending the week at my grandparent’s house filling up the “cousin time” that is allotted annually. Maybe I should consider bringing on another writer? If you’re interested shoot me an email and I’ll let you know.
The Twins once again sit with an even .500 record. While certainly not great, it’s been enough to keep their heads above water in the (disappointingly poor) AL Central.
Scoring an average of just over 4.85 runs/game, the Twins can blame their pedestrian start almost entirely on pitching. Sure, the bottom of the order wasn’t the strongest early on, but they seem to have found their groove lately.
No, the offensive aspects of the Twins cannot be entirely blamed. The pitching must be held accountable for this poor start. An abysmal bullpen to go along with mediocre starting pitching has led to this 34-34 record that the Twins proudly boast. Don’t doubt my concern over this crucial aspect for the team; it must be fixed if the Twins want to win a World Championship. (Whether that is by way of Huston Street or another free agent acquisition or simply from within the organization has yet to be seen, but that is a topic for another day.)
What can be done to improve the team short of making a roster move? How about tweaking the batting lineup?
Using Baseball Musing’s Lineup Analysis tool, one can calculate the average number of runs/game a group of nine batters will score and what position in the lineup they must be. Using the nine players from June 17th’s game against the Pirates (because yesterday’s lineup was wacky and I won’t include Denard Span) let’s see how the Twins stack up.
| Runs per Game | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.819 | Joe Mauer | Justin Morneau | Brendan Harris | Michael Cuddyer | Jason Kubel | Joe Crede | Carlos Gomez | Delmon Young | Nick Punto |
| 5.819 | Joe Mauer | Justin Morneau | Brendan Harris | Jason Kubel | Michael Cuddyer | Joe Crede | Carlos Gomez | Delmon Young | Nick Punto |
Those are the best two lineups Baseball Musings has to offer. Quite a mix-up, right?
First off, Mauer is shifted to the lead-off position, something that practically no one has thought of because of Span’s presence. Were Span to return, he would take the leadoff position with no competition. While it could be better for the team, it would drastically reduce Mauer’s RBI total (unless the bottom of the order continues their success) and would be a silly place to put his new-found power.
Batting Morneau second is another intriguing option. His home run total doesn’t attest to a need to move up in the order, but his on-base-percentage of .400 is very good.
What do you think? Should Gardy overhaul the batting lineup; and if so, should Morneau bat second?
It’s an interesting suggestion, and I really can’t deny the logic behind it. I wouldn’t be averse to at least experimenting with this kind of line-up for a few games (hopefully either against the Astros or when we go play the Royals on this road trip, as we should fare pretty well in those series anyway)
I noticed this tool doesn’t take the players speed into consideration, only the players OBP and SLG. Now without Span in the lineup their isn’t a good option for leadoff so I can see the tool simply took Mauer’s phenomenal OBP and put him in leadoff. This is why you don’t let computers manage baseball teams.
Mauer’s career numbers indicate to me he is a good #2 hitter, but his recent surge in power makes a good argument to have him bat 3rd. With no good option for the #2 spot currently I understand putting Mauer there.
As for Morneau, he is the RBI guy, RBI guys are best in the 4 hole traditionally.
To fill Leadoff while Span is out I would go with Harris, although his speed isn’t ideal, he has been hot lately and there isn’t a better option, Gomez just doesn’t get on base enough.