Phil Hughes

UPDATE 5/14

CBS Sports is reporting that Delmon Young will leave the team for 3-7 days to attend to a family matter in California. Jose Morales has been recalled from Rochester. This means that Gomez will recieve some significant playing time during the four-game series with the Yankees this weekend. TwinsFix wishes the best of luck to Delmon and we pray that everything is fine with his family.

The Twins brought their brooms to the Metrodome for a mid-week series against the division rival Tigers. Just the second sweep of the season, the Twins now have an 18-17 record to go with a terribly porous bullpen. Knowing that Nathan and Mijares cannot pitch in every relief scenario (which, in turn, means that one of Ayala, Dickey, Crain, Breslow, or Guerrier are going to pitch almost every night) I’m pretty happy with where we are.

Our Pythagorean W-L is 16-19. Luck has been on our side as we are a better team than our runs scored and runs allowed indicate. Add that to the fact that our record in one-run games is 5-1 and I’m very pleased with how the first 34 games have played themselves out. (No, I am not happy with the bullpen, but that is for another post.)

Up next are the New York Yankees, who are fresh off a series victory over the Toronto Blue Jays. We have had our experiences with the Blue Jays so we know that the Yankees aren’t to be dismissed as a team who will simply roll over and die. They may be erratic at best, but the the amount of money Steinbrenner invested in his team this past offseason isn’t going to ride the bench.

Twins’ starters and relievers alike will struggle getting through this powerful Yankee lineup. Let’s take a look at the pitching probables for Friday’s game.

Game 35: Francisco Liriano (2-4, 5.75) vs. Phil Hughes (1-2, 8.49)

Phil Hughes hasn’t found his best pitching in this most recent call-up. The Yankees replaced Chien-Ming Wang with Hughes, and the 22-year old right hander has made a total of three starts this year. Hughes will be a great pitcher and has some super pitching ability hiding behind the boxscores of his two most recent games.

At home against the Red Sox on May 4 Hughes allowed three earned runs on seven hits over the course of four innings. He threw 94 pitches. On May 9 Hughes was on the mound for the Yankees in Baltimore. That start was more attrocious than the last, as Hughes surrendered eight runs on eight hits while only recording five outs.

So far this year, (in very small sample size), Hughes has relied very little on his fastball. Throwing it just under 50 percent of the time, Hughes has thrown his cutter almost 27 percent. FanGraphs doesn’t record Hughes even having a cutter before this year, instead claiming he threw a slider. It could be a simple adjustment Hughes made or it could represent a complete ditching of his slider in favor of the cutter.

Last year, Hughes threw his slider only 9.4 percent of the time, while relying much more on his fastball; 62.4 percent. Hughes has very much been a flyball pitcher this year. Over ten percent of all fly balls hit against him have been over the wall, but that can be attributed to the fact that he only had three starts.

Francisco Liriano still hasn’t returned to his velocity of 2006, but has very similar pitch variety. His fastball is thrown nearly 60 percent of the time, up six percent from last year and sixteen percent from 2006. In order for the Liriano circa 2006 to return he needs to get that killer slider working for him. He has taken a step away from the violent throwing motion he used three years ago, which is a good thing long-term, but makes it tougher for that pitch to do what he wants.

Liriano will be making his first career start against the Bronx Bombers and is coming off of two consecutive wins. The last victory Liriano received, however, was not because of solid pitching but rather of super run support. Liriano hurled five innings against the Mariners on May 9 while surrendering five runs on six hits. 

May 4 was a much brighter day for Liriano. He held the Tigers to just two runs on four hits over the course of seven and one-third innings. So far in 2009 Liriano has a solid K/BB ratio of 33:16. Nearly 42 percent of balls batted off Liriano have been fly balls, so there is a good chance that Gomez starts in centerfield. Liriano hasn’t given up a bunt hit this year.

5 Predictions

1. Liriano’s line: 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 6 K, 3 BB
2. Hughes’ line: 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 K, 6 BB
3. Carlos Gomez, 1-3, 3B, BB
4. Joe Mauer, 0-2, 2 BB, 2 R
5. Matt Tolbert, 3-4, HR, 3 RBI