Who is the best first baseman in the American League? Seth Stohs posed this question earlier today and left me scratching my head. What a tough question!

First off, let’s clarify exactly what the question is that we are answering. As Seth points out, there are many different ways we can go with this topic. “Who has had/will have the best career?” “Who is the best today?” “Who do you start a team with?” For the sake of this discussion, I’m going to focus on the “Who is the best today?” question. Courtesy of TheBaseballCube, here is a handy chart comparing five of the biggest contendors:

Offense is pehaps the most important aspect to consider when comparing first baseman. (Speed isn’t an issue, as none of the above have more than one. For the sake of spacing, I simply removed that category.)  Morneau and Youkilis are the best in this category. We are only a few months into the season, so small sample size could obviously be an issue, but we’ll overlook that for now. Pena is a home run machine, but doesn’t hit for average and can’t get on base. He doesn’t even have many more RBI than Cabrera, who has seven less long balls.  The best BB/SO ratio goes to Morneau, with Cabrera close behind. Pena is far behind in that category. From the above statistics, here is how I would rank the five:

Offensive Ranking

1. Justin Morneau
2. Kevin Youkilis
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Mark Teixeira
5. Carlos Pena

Youkilis, because of an injury, has less time spent at first base than the rest of these five. Even playing the whole season, the other four have way too little playing time to make any assumptions. The best defensive player of these five is either Morneau or Teixeira. I’ll go with Teixeira first simply because he has one less error in twenty more innings, but it’s extremely close.

Defensive Ranking

1. Mark Teixeira
2. Justin Morneau
3. Kevin Youkilis
4. Miguel Cabrera
5. Carlos Pena

Pena finishes fifth on both lists, proving that home runs don’t make a great first baseman. Cabrera is also out of the running with a 3rd and 4th place finish. Youkilis may have had a great year both offensively and defensively last year, but he needs a larger sample size before I can compare him to the rest. That leaves Morneau and Teixeira.

As a Twins’ fan, I’m obviously biased towards Morneau. When I try to be objective, though, I tend to be bias against Morneau, as Dwade pointed out. Just for fun, let’s take a look at both player’s wOBA from the past few years (sorry for the awful formatting).

Interestingly, Morneau led only one year; 2006, his MVP year. Here are the 2009 numbers, through Monday’s games:

Who is the best first baseman in the league?

Posted in Justin Morneau, Statistics No Comments Tags: comparisons

Mauer Power

Joe Mauer is a great baseball player. I don’t think you’ll have very much difficulty convincing anyone of that. On the season, Mauer has hit ten home runs in just 23 games. He is hitting an insane 1 HR/8 AB so far in 2009. While his season started late because of his recovery from kidney surgery, Mauer is just 41.5 plate appearances away from qualifying for the batting title. (3.1 PA per team game is required in order to be eligible for the award.)

Mauer’s .438/.525/.875 line has pundits scratching their heads. The ten long balls just add to the mystery. With an OPS of 1.400 he easily leads any batter with more than three PA. What is the reason for this incredible stretch? Is it just a hot streak that will soon die, or has Mauer actually “gotten better”?

Tom Tango, co-author of “The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball,” suggests 220 plate appearances as the baseline for analyzing a player who is flucuating from his average production. Any amount less than that (Mauer has only 98 PA this year) and you can chaulk the success/regression up to luck and expect a return to the mean production of the player.

Has Mauer been extremely lucky in 2009? I am tempted to think so. Mauer is only 26 years old and is still maturing physically. I would strongly doubt that Mauer is actually doing anything consciously to increase his home run total and that he is simply finding it easier to launch a 400-footer. Will this return to normal? Probably, because pitchers will adjust to how they pitch to this “new” Mauer. Will Mauer’s sudden power return to normal? Probably, but maybe not.

Aaron Gleeman compared Mauer to the Wade Boggs of 1987, when he hit 24 home runs. On average, Boggs rarely had a home run total reaching double digits. Actually, he only reached two digits once again in his career: 1994 with the Yankees.

There is little doubt in my mind that Mauer will not continue to rake opposing pitching at the rate he is currently going. He is on pace for a nearly record-breaking season, but that number should regress towards the mean of Mauer’s career.

Weighted On Base Average, wOBA, is a great way to measure a hitter’s true ability. Very similar to OPS, wOBA is more messy but isn’t simply a combination two already-exsisting statistics. wOBA uses the run values of the most common events in baseball relative to an out, divided by the total number of plate appearances. A very good hitter could expect to have a wBOA approaching .400. Through 45 games in 2009 Mauer’s wOBA is .571.

Will he regress towards his mean? Sure, but that doesn’t mean he will return to the same kind of hitter he was last year. The Mauer of 2008 could very well be lost forever, replaced by a home run-hitting monster with an uncanny ability to get on base.

If Mauer survives the 220 plate appearance plateau without a major hiccup in this hot streak, though, he could very well be the next Mantle-caliber hitter.

Posted in Joe Mauer, Statistics 1 Comment

Just posted the Organizational Depth Chart. You can find the link on the main bar at the top of the screen. I will update as often as time allows.

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I have recently compiled an exhaustive depth chart of the first four teams in the Twins’ minor league organization: Rochester, New Britain, Fort Myers, and Beloit. If I moved it online and kept it up to date as often as I could, would you take advantage of it?

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For the second night in a row, @Dwade takes home the honors in the nightly Tweet of the Game. I kept the subject at starting pitcher’s final lines, this time going with the one making a major-league debut, Anthony Swarzak. Here was his final line:

7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Here was @Dwade’s winning prediction:

5.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Nicely done!

To participate in this new nightly feature sign up for an account atTwitter.com and add me by clicking here.

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Tonight’s Twitter contest was predicting starting pitcher Kevin Slowey’s line. Here is the final line:

7.1 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

Tonight’s winner is @Dwade, with the following prediction:

8 IP, 7 H , 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Without Morneau’s error in the eighth, Slowey would have had the bases empty with two outs. An extremely close guess from @Dwade, and he wins the contest tonight. Congratulations!

To participate in this new nightly feature sign up for an account at Twitter.com and add me by clicking here.

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Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gomez has been called the fastest player in baseball. His defense is outstanding; his plate discipline needs work. However you want to view Gomez, there is no denying his unbelievable upside as an outfielder in Major League Baseball. Lately, though, we’ve been reminded of his current struggles at the plate.

In yesterday’s laugher over the White Sox, Gomez relieved Jason Kubel during the game. He had two official plate appearances and singled and scored in one of them. His season line is brought up to .230/.301/.311. Uffda.

There are many different views of Carlos Gomez, our Gold-Glove center fielder. Some may say that Gomez’s offensive deficiency makes him a liability to the team, who is in desperate need of quality at-bats. Others say that the remarkable range Gomez has in center field is too valuable to surrender to the bench. Still others claim that a month in Rochester would give the 23-year old the time he needs to clear his head.

The struggling starting pitching the Twins have had to deal with is in dire need of all the defensive help they can get, yet they also need sufficient offensive support. There is a fine balance between the former and latter and the Twins need to find it. Either Gomez plays most days in center field or he doesn’t. Simply benching the youngster is not a popular option because it deprives the potential All-Star of the one thing he needs most: at-bats.

How is that said balance found? At what point does a player become too offensively detrimental to warrant a starting position? How valuable is great defense or poor offense?

According to the ever-valuable StatCorner, Gomez has a run value of -0.057 per plate appearance below average. That may not seem like much, but when stretched out over 600 plate appearances (Gomez had 617 last year) his run value per PA falls to -34. Theoretically, Gomez’s offensive ineptitude costs the Twins 34 runs a year; which can mean the difference between at least a handful of games. In a division as competitive as the AL Central, every win matters.

Last year Gomez struck out looking 4.9 percent of his plate appearances, and he struck out swinging 18.2 percent. Clearly, Gomez was a hacker. So Gomez ended up walking back to the dugout 23.1 percent of the times he stepped to the plate in 2008. Through yesterday’s game, Gomez has only struck out 21 percent of his plate appearances; 9.9 percent looking and 11.1 swinging. Although the total number is still ridiculously high, Gomez has become more patient at the plate and is taking more pitches. (Another interesting note is that Gomez swung at 55 percent of the pitches he saw in 2008. So far in 2009 that number is down to 48.5.)

But that doesn’t mean he is a solid bat to have in the batting order.

Defensively, there are a number of statistics to measure an outfielder’s production. Here are four of the most popular, with the definitions courtesy of FanGraphs.

ARM (outfield arm runs): Outfielder’s get credit (plus or minus) depending on what the runners do on a hit or a fly ball out. A runner can stay put, advance, or get thrown out. A fielder will get credit not only if he throws out more than his share of runners, but also if he keeps more than his share of runners from advancing extra bases.

DPR (double play runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on the number of double plays versus the number of  forces at second they get, as compared to an average fielder at that position, given the speed and location of the ball and the handedness of the batter.

RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.

ErrR (error runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution of balls in play.

Instead of giving you Gomez’s ranking for all of the above, I will use another handy statistic that combines all four of the above statistics:

Carlos Gomez

 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). This statistic can be read as runs above/below average; the same as the offensive value I used above. Gomez has a UZR of 2.8, which comes out to 27.3 over the course of 150 games. (Interestingly, were Gomez qualified he would rank fourth in all of baseball in that department. He would rank second in the American League, second only to a player by the name of Joe Crede.)

We now have two statistics — one offensive, one defensive — that can help us measure Gomez’s overall contribution to the team. (I’m assuming that 150 games and 600 plate appearances are roughly the same.) Offensively, Gomez is worth -34 runs. Defensively, Gomez is worth 27.3 runs. If 2009 plays out without any major surprises Gomez will bring the Twins a total value of  -6.7.

6.7 runs can mean the difference between a few wins. In the tough division we are in could mean the difference between a playoff appearance and another year of watching from home.

Does this mean that Gomez should be sent down to Rochester as soon as possible? Not necessarily. These statistics are based upon the league average. Should the Twins find a perfectly average outfielder to play in the place of Gomez they would have a total of 6.7 extra runs this year. The thing is, though, the Twins don’t have an average outfielder. Were Gomez to be sent down Jason Kubel and Delmon Young would both receive significant playing time in the outfield. Kubel is better at the plate than in the field, while Young is struggling in both areas.

What do you think? Would Gomez benefit from a month or two in Rochester? What do you take from these statistics; what are they missing in regard to the human element?

Posted in Carlos Gomez, Statistics 6 Comments

There is no need to comment on this victory. The Twins found their groove today and won in nearly historic fashion. I hate to be negative, but this Twitter update from @hotlou just about sums up my feelings.

Minnesota Twins hitting is like a stomach virus: contagious and potent, but there’s no trace of it in 24 hours.

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Say what you want in defense of relievers wearing a Minnesota uniform, there is no denying the fact that they could be better. The question, though, is what is needed?

To his credit, Ron Gardenhire and the front office are trying their hardest. Attempting to clear Craig Breslow through waivers was the right thing to do and it was a shame that Oakland claimed him. Breslow has potential, but this is neither the time nor place to attempt to find that. He needed some time in Rochester to fine-tune his pitches, but he was out of options. Unforunetly, the Athletics grabbed him.

This move was seen as surprising by many. Breslow has been awful this year, but under normal circumstances the Twins would probably have given him more time. There were three left-handed pitchers in the Twins’ bullpen, which really is unnecessary. Sean Henn was brought in even though he is another lefthanded arm because there was really no other options. (In the front office’s eyes, that is. There are two young pitchers down in Double-A who are both ready for a change of scenery.)

Taking Perkin’s place on the roster is Anthony Swazark. He has compiled a 3-4 record in Rochester along with a 2.25 ERA, 40 hits, 11 walks, and 32 strikeouts.

Most people doubt Swazark has what The Show requires. He’s out to prove everybody wrong, though, and will start on Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The bullpen and rotation have left much to be desired this season and the Twins will not make the playoffs if this kind of play continues. Some changes are needed, and the Twins are trying their hardest. Here’s hoping they know what they’re doing!

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After today’s heart-breaking loss to the New York Yankees to complete a four-game sweep, Twins’ starting pitcher Glen Perkins has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with inflammation in his left elbow.

To take his roster spot is Sean Henn, the minor-league reliever from Rochester. While many fans, me included, wanted to see either Delaney or Slama moved up from New Britain the front office decided that Henn was more major-league ready.

Wednesday night is Perkin’s next scheduled start and who will take his place is still being considered. The most likely scenario would be R.A. Dickey taking the mound against the Milwaukee Brewers. He threw 4 1/3 scoreless innings after Perkins was removed in the first inning of Monday’s contest, but suffered a broken fingernail — one of the worst injuries for a knuckleballer.

Dickey told Gardenhire that he will sand the nail down and super-glue it in place in order to be ready to pitch.

Posted in Uncategorized No Comments Tags: Roster Moves