Dan Wade, Bleacher Report

Francisco Liriano

The last time these two teams met, both were in a fight for the playoffs. The Rays sought their first division title in their franchise’s history, while the Twins were simply trying to stay afloat in the AL Central race.

Needless to say, this series is pretty far removed from a September pennant chase, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be followed fairly closely.

For the Twins, this series is finishing strong.

This series will be the last they play without Joe Mauer, baring setbacks of course. A series win would put them at .500 when Mauer returns and a sweep would put them one game over, exactly where they wanted to be when Mauer returns.

No one has run away with the Central as the Twins waited for their star, but to look ahead for the time when they will have a healthy Mauer and trip up after having played well this April would be unfortunate. Far from a disaster, but if the Twins can take momentum into the second month of the year and get their catcher back, so much the better.

For the Rays, these three games are about getting started.

Last year at this time, the Rays were 14-11 and tied with Baltimore for the division lead. They had already swept Toronto and Boston, back-to-back, serving notice that they would no longer be the doormat of the AL East.

This season, the Rays have yet to really get out of the gate. They haven’t yet been swept in a series, but other than a rain shortened opening series against the Red Sox, they have yet to win one either.

Hot starts from Jason Bartlett and Evan Longoria have helped to keep the Rays from digging a more serious hole, but their pitching has been suspect at best.

No Rays’ reliever has recorded a win, and the starters share just seven between them. Andy Sonnanstine was 4-1 last April on his way to winning five straight decisions; now he sits at 0-3 with an ERA of 7.78.

Many felt that a healthy Scott Kazmir would anchor a great young rotation, and while he has been solid this month (owning nearly half the Rays’ wins) the rest of the young guns have yet to follow his lead.

Still, no one doubts the talent of this club; counting them out of a competitive AL East just because of a slow start would be foolish at best. The Rays just need to find a good team in a slump and prove to themselves they can still beat anyone on any day.

And that is exactly what this series can be…for both teams.

Given the loss of Mauer and Scott Baker to start the season, the Twins should be very pleased with their position. Objectively, however, there is some disappointment with the way the season has kicked off.

The Twins boast the worst run differential in the AL and the second worst in baseball. The top two starters in their rotation are a combined 0-6 with a combined ERA of 8.6, they are routinely starting three to four players with a batting average below .215, and their bullpen is about as secure as a two dollar luggage lock.

This series could be a big boost for their confidence, if they can beat the Rays’ pitching around, get Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker back on track, and continue to get scoreless frames out of Jose Mijares.

The Rays, too, could use this series to reignite their confidence.

The Twins’ staff gives up a lot of home runs, and Carl Crawford and Jason Bartlett will love running on the carpet in the Metrodome. The Twins’ bats can be shut down by junkballers and flamethrowers alike, so any game could be a blowout win for the Rays.

Whoever wins the series will feel quite good about having done so, and could use it as a great spring board into May and beyond. The question is, with such a great chance in place for the taking, which of these struggling but talented teams can rise to the occasion?

-Dan Wade

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More good news from our stellar bullpen: Jesse Crain, who most would agree has been the second-safest relief arm, has been placed on the 15-day Disabled List.

A familiar face will be recalled from Rochester. Jose Mijares will join the Twins as soon as possible.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4084142

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Glen Perkins

Ask any Twins’ fan and they will certainly tell you that they are glad that Glen Perkins is on their team. Through Perkin’s first three starts this season, he has pitched a total of 24 innings – 8 innings per trip to the rubber – and has allowed just four opposing runners to cross the plate. Any time a pitcher can go a full eight innings is a great outing, but Perkins being able to do so three times in a row brings forth a simple question: “How?”

The real answer is: I haven’t the foggiest idea. If I did, I would probably be in a minor league organization somewhere and you couldn’t buy the secret off me. For us mere mortals, however, we can simply take a look at Perkin’s hard data and most likely walk away more puzzled than ever on how Perkins is so great.

On Sunday Perkins strung eight nearly perfect innings together, only getting roughed up a bit in the second inning; where the Angels struck first by scoring a run on a groundout. That inning was one of the toughest for him; 12 whole pitches. Here is a look at his inning-by-inning pitch breakdown, complete with a running total.
 

1st - 11 pitches; 11 total
2nd – 12 pitches; 23 total
3rd - 14 pitches; 37 total
4th - 8 pitches; 45 total
5th – 9 pitches; 54 total
6th - 9 pitches; 63 total
7th - 11 pitches; 74 total
8th - 10 pitches; 84 total

84 total pitches; nothing more than a long bullpen session… a light workout. He had four one-two-three innings, not including the double-play-aided third inning, but had no lucky break where under five pitches were required to retire three batters. After getting through the order once while surrendering two hits and walking one, Perkins settled down and went the remaining five innings while allowing only two hits.

There was a scare in the seventh inning when Bobby Abreu grounded out sharply to Perkins, who promptly chucked the ball to Morneau. But not before getting nailed with what the AP recap called a “blistering comebacker.” Perkins walked around the mound, successfully convinced the coaching staff that he was fine after a series of warm-up pitches, and finished off the remaining two innings by pitching through pain.

Here is a velocity histogram, courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net.

As you can see, Perkins’ arm didn’t break down in his start against the Angels. His pitches were relatively consistent throughout the afternoon, and no significant drop in velocity can be seen. Although MLB Gameday labeled a few of Perkins’ pitches as sinkers/sliders, I think it’s safe to say that he relied almost exclusively on that deadly fastball/changeup duo. As evidenced by the chart above, Perkins obviously had a few slow fastballs and a few fast changeups, but you’re going to see that in almost every start.

This next histogram shows the average speed of Perkin’s pitches.

The highest frequency is right around 89 mph. Perkins threw more fastballs than changeups, and his average fastball comes in near the upper 80s, but he can touch 90 or 91 from time to time. His changeup, or “sinker” as Gameday labels it, comes in around 79-81 mph. 

So, from all this information what do we know now about Perkins that we didn’t know before? I’ll let you be the judge of that.

For now, I’m content to be simply amazed in Glen Perkins.

Posted in Game Thoughts No Comments Tags: Glen Perkins, starting rotation

For those who missed the Friday night game between the Angels and Twins, you picked a doozy of a game to skip. Yes, the bullpen stunk… again. Yes, Nick Blackburn wasn’t at his finest… again. Yes, the Twins gave up over three runs in an inning two seperate times… again.

But on Friday Twins fans were able to overlook all the painful faults of this ulcer-causing team because of one man – Jason Kubel.

Everyone knows what went down last night: Kubel hit for the cycle, finishing the feat with a grand slam that vaulted the Twins two runs  ahead of the Angels. How did Kubel do it, though? Was his historic feat a result of poor pitching, or simply solid plate appearances? Let’s take a look at each of his at-bats on Friday, April 17.
 

1. Bottom of the 1st – Morneau on first, two outs

Kubel displayed his excellent vision in this at-bat, swinging at the second pitch, which was in the zone, but passing on the first and third pitches, which were called as balls. As of now, Kubel has made contact with 94.3 percent of all pitches in the zone. He is only swinging at 25 percent of pitches outside of the strikezone.

In this case, he waited for that 2-seam fastball and split left and center fields for a run-scoring double.
 

2. Bottom of the 3rd – bases empty, two outs

Kubel waited on that curveball he loves in this instance, avoiding two pitches outside the strikezone.
 

3. Bottom of the 6th – bases empty, one out

Once again Kubel shows off his amazing eye at the plate, letting three balls go by him before settling on a fastball right down the middle. It’s interesting that Kubel was given the green light with a 3-0 count, but with a night like he was having, why not?

Rafael Rodriguez was pitching for the Angels, and he painted the corners of the plate with almost identical pitches. His out pitch is a slider, but he fell behind Kubel and needed a strike. He threw a hittable fastball down the middle of the plate with a 3-0 count, and Kubel took him the other way for a three-bagger.
 

4. Bottom of the 8th – Nick Punto, Denard Span, Justin Morneau on base, two outs

What’s the lesson the Angel’s learned from this at-bat? Kubel is a curveball masher. With an 0-1 count, Kubel extended to launch a grand slam over the right-center field wall.

So – did Kubel have the benefit of poor pitching on Friday, or is he simply a superb batter? Both. Rodriguez and Jason Bulger didn’t have the best pitch selection, but Kubel displayed his excellent vision on Friday’s game. As Nick Nelson said, “Free Kubel!”

Take a look at these batting statistics from Kubel so far in 2009:

Quite frankly, those are impressive. Compared to Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young, Jason Kubel’s statistics look Hall-of-Fame worthy.

Is it time for Kubel to have a chance to bat every day; whether from the DH position or in the outfield?

Posted in Game Thoughts, Jason Kubel, Statistics 1 Comment

No. I’m not writing about that. No chance.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=290416109

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Tonight the Fort Myers Miracle hosted the Charlotte Stone Crabs. On the mound for the Miracle: Scott Baker.

According to Gardy, should everything go good in this start Baker will return to the rotation.

Baker threw 70 pitches for seven innings of five-hit ball. He gave up one run, and struck out three. Just 19 of his pitches were called as balls.

Baker is able to get off the 15-Day DL as soon as Sunday, but all indications point towards him making his first start on Wednesday against the Blue Jays.

-CBS Sports

Posted in Uncategorized No Comments Tags: injuries, Scott Baker

Following the 2008 baseball season the Minnesota Twins had several problems that they needed to deal with before taking the field in 2009. The most pressing, perhaps, was the gaping hole at third base. A few millions dollars later, though, and Joe Crede has lived up to the defensive expectations that surrounded his signing.

The bullpen issue was addressed this offseason, but not necessarily solved. Luis Ayala and R.A. Dickey have been brought on, but neither promise to be elite relievers.

The problem that has lingered the longest could also be considered a “good” problem.

Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, Jason Kubel, and Delmon Young. Five very talented outfielders vying for four positions… or so we thought. Span has flashed the potential to be the best lead-off hitter the Twins have had in a long time, and Gomez has shown the defensive range of a gold glover.

As a matter of fact, Gomez was among the very best in the Major Leagues in quite a few key defensive statistics. Let’s take a look.

While it may be hard to believe, young Gomez was the fourth best defensive player in the league when it came to this stat. Nearly 95 percent of the 352 balls hit into Gomez’s quite large centerfield zone were turned into outs. (As a side note, those 352 balls were more than Young, Ross, and Jones had in their respective zones.)

There’s no denying the speed of Gomez, either.

In the entire league, Gomez made 104 outs that weren’t hit to his zone. Both of these stats should prove that Gomez is too valuable to place on the bench more than once or twice a week.

Denard Span is the second half of the young outfield duo that the Twins have come to enjoy. Through four games Span has an on-base-percentage of .976. While this reeks of “small sample size,” Span has done an incredible job of getting on base and providing an awesome top-of-the-order bat. There is little doubt that when Mauer returns the Twins will boast one of the best first-six-batters in the league.

So, if Span and Gomez play the majority of the time that changes the equation a little, doesn’t it? No longer are five outfielders competing for four positions, but three are hoping for one of two places. Cuddyer, Young, and Kubel are in the running for the remaining outfield and designated hitter positions.

In the two games Young has had plate appearances he has failed to reach base. He has added all the ingredients of a successful season to his pot this year, though, and should be allowed the chance to prove that he belongs in the outfield. Few people doubt his potential to be a top-tier outfielder, but that obviously won’t happen when/if he is on the back burner.

That leaves Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer. Defensively, both could perform just about as well as Young, but in terms of offensive/potential, they can’t hold a candle to the 23-year old.

If I had my say, Kubel and Cuddyer would platoon in the designated hitter spot on a relatively permanent basis. Span, Gomez, and Young make one of the youngest outfields in the league, but would also be one of the best defensively. Cuddyer and Kubel would provide great substitutions when one of the three young guns need a breather.

I’m not totally opposed to the idea of trading one of Kubel or Cuddyer, either.

Posted in Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, Speculation, Statistics No Comments

A three-run ninth inning capped an exciting night for the Twins

I’m convinced the Twins and FSN North have an unwritten deal. I’m unable to find the total number, but edge-of-your-seat comeback victories have never been a rare thing in the Metrodome. No baseball fan in the world would not have enjoyed the Minnesota half of the ninth inning on Tuesday night.

Although the Twins are unable to take all the credit, (thank you Mr. Morrow), you can’t help but feel great after a victory like that.

The bottom half of the ninth started off with a six-pitch Joe Crede strikeout. I’m mixed on my feelings on Crede so far this season. He has certainly proved himself to be worth the money we paid him defensively, but on offense he has yet to impress. As I’m sure you’re aware, Crede hits right handed pitchers better than left handed pitchers. While extremely bizarre, the Twins could use that to their advantage.

Brian Buscher proved what a valuable asset off the bench he can be last night – and that shouldn’t be changed. I am opposed to benching Crede consistently to Buscher. Now, that would obviously change if Crede were nursing a hopefully small injury later in the season.

After Crede went down swinging, Delmon Young stepped to the plate. Reports from Spring Training indicated that Young had matured his swing and stance at the plate, so he is going to be a very interesting player to keep up this year. Last night, it was more of the same we saw out of Delmon last year: he swung at the third pitch and lifted a fly ball to center field. For the record, it was a well-hit ball.

With two down and no runners on base in the bottom of the ninth, Carlos Gomez stepped in hoping to start a rally. No one would have expected it, but Gomez saw a total of eight pitches that at-bat, and only swung at three of them. He drew a walk to keep the hope alive… although everyone knew there was no chance of coming back from a two-run deficit.

Due up next was Jose Morales, who has made me cringe more than any other Twin so far this year. Should Redmond spend any time injured, does anyone else think a Butera call might be in order?

Gardy pinch-hit for Morales with Jason Kubel, the benched outfielder tonight. On four pitches, and an uncontested Gomez steal, Kubel reached first base.

Punto was up next, but Gardy sent Brian Buscher to the plate and Brendan Harris to run for Kubel. A spark of hope was being kindled in Twins’ fans: they could win with one swing of the bat.

Buscher worked seven pitches, six of which were fastballs, to gain yet another walk. At this point, closer Marrow was taken out of the game and sinkerball-pitcher Miguel Batista was called on.

Denard Span took a called strike on the outside corner, but when an identical pitch in the same location came flying toward him, he slammed the ball into the AstroTurf. The ball lifted at least fifty feet in the air, and third baseman Adrian Beltre had no chance of a play. A run had scored, and the bases were loaded.

Span is a great leadoff hitter. Using Gardy’s current “outfield distribution plan,” though, Span would be sitting at least once a week. From my impression of the first two games, Span and Gomez are too valuable defensively to be benched. Offensively, it seems, as well.

Alexi Casilla entered the batting box with the entire Metrodome on their feet. A 92 mph fastball up and inside was crushed for one of the best-hit singles I had ever seen before.

Harris scored easily for the tie. Buscher crossed the plate for the third time in that half-inninng, and the game was over.

It’s amazing how good a 1-1 record can feel, isn’t it?

Posted in Game Thoughts, Lineup Thoughts 3 Comments

After putting blogging on the backburner for a few weeks, I’m back and rearing for some baseball action. For those who are curious, here is what I’ve been up to lately…

- I launched the first of my twice-a-week (bi-weekly?) baseball coverage for the Green Valley News. Green Valley is a small retirement community down here in Southern Arizona. It is twenty miles south of Tucson, and forty miles north of the Mexican border. The population is just over 17,000.

The columns will run online, GVnews.com, but I will also post a few of them here (if I have a desperate need for content.)

- High school track is demanding the majority of my time. I’m a distance runner, and am having a bizarre sophomore season. My mile time so far is only 5:21; quite a few seconds slower than what I ran as a freshman. I’ve been trying to figure that enigma out while enduring practice every day. Oh, well.

- Other general high school matters. Schoolwork mostly, including the school newspaper. For anyone who cares, I’ll share with you a large paper I’ll be writing on Normandy for my History class. (If you haven’t figured it out yet, I’m a huge history nerd. If you happen to stumble across any interesting article you happen during the day I would love for you to share!)

So, that’s that. I’ll try to keep active here throughout the next seven months, and bring you my opinion on how the Twins’ season is going.

By the way, does anyone know what is going on with MLB.tv? I’m not even being allowed to log in… I sure would hate to waste $120 on this so-called “MLB.tv Premium.”

Posted in Uncategorized No Comments Tags: Site Update