Dan Wade, Bleacher Report

Francisco Liriano

The last time these two teams met, both were in a fight for the playoffs. The Rays sought their first division title in their franchise’s history, while the Twins were simply trying to stay afloat in the AL Central race.

Needless to say, this series is pretty far removed from a September pennant chase, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be followed fairly closely.

For the Twins, this series is finishing strong.

This series will be the last they play without Joe Mauer, baring setbacks of course. A series win would put them at .500 when Mauer returns and a sweep would put them one game over, exactly where they wanted to be when Mauer returns.

No one has run away with the Central as the Twins waited for their star, but to look ahead for the time when they will have a healthy Mauer and trip up after having played well this April would be unfortunate. Far from a disaster, but if the Twins can take momentum into the second month of the year and get their catcher back, so much the better.

For the Rays, these three games are about getting started.

Last year at this time, the Rays were 14-11 and tied with Baltimore for the division lead. They had already swept Toronto and Boston, back-to-back, serving notice that they would no longer be the doormat of the AL East.

This season, the Rays have yet to really get out of the gate. They haven’t yet been swept in a series, but other than a rain shortened opening series against the Red Sox, they have yet to win one either.

Hot starts from Jason Bartlett and Evan Longoria have helped to keep the Rays from digging a more serious hole, but their pitching has been suspect at best.

No Rays’ reliever has recorded a win, and the starters share just seven between them. Andy Sonnanstine was 4-1 last April on his way to winning five straight decisions; now he sits at 0-3 with an ERA of 7.78.

Many felt that a healthy Scott Kazmir would anchor a great young rotation, and while he has been solid this month (owning nearly half the Rays’ wins) the rest of the young guns have yet to follow his lead.

Still, no one doubts the talent of this club; counting them out of a competitive AL East just because of a slow start would be foolish at best. The Rays just need to find a good team in a slump and prove to themselves they can still beat anyone on any day.

And that is exactly what this series can be…for both teams.

Given the loss of Mauer and Scott Baker to start the season, the Twins should be very pleased with their position. Objectively, however, there is some disappointment with the way the season has kicked off.

The Twins boast the worst run differential in the AL and the second worst in baseball. The top two starters in their rotation are a combined 0-6 with a combined ERA of 8.6, they are routinely starting three to four players with a batting average below .215, and their bullpen is about as secure as a two dollar luggage lock.

This series could be a big boost for their confidence, if they can beat the Rays’ pitching around, get Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker back on track, and continue to get scoreless frames out of Jose Mijares.

The Rays, too, could use this series to reignite their confidence.

The Twins’ staff gives up a lot of home runs, and Carl Crawford and Jason Bartlett will love running on the carpet in the Metrodome. The Twins’ bats can be shut down by junkballers and flamethrowers alike, so any game could be a blowout win for the Rays.

Whoever wins the series will feel quite good about having done so, and could use it as a great spring board into May and beyond. The question is, with such a great chance in place for the taking, which of these struggling but talented teams can rise to the occasion?

-Dan Wade

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More good news from our stellar bullpen: Jesse Crain, who most would agree has been the second-safest relief arm, has been placed on the 15-day Disabled List.

A familiar face will be recalled from Rochester. Jose Mijares will join the Twins as soon as possible.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4084142

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Glen Perkins

Ask any Twins’ fan and they will certainly tell you that they are glad that Glen Perkins is on their team. Through Perkin’s first three starts this season, he has pitched a total of 24 innings – 8 innings per trip to the rubber – and has allowed just four opposing runners to cross the plate. Any time a pitcher can go a full eight innings is a great outing, but Perkins being able to do so three times in a row brings forth a simple question: “How?”

The real answer is: I haven’t the foggiest idea. If I did, I would probably be in a minor league organization somewhere and you couldn’t buy the secret off me. For us mere mortals, however, we can simply take a look at Perkin’s hard data and most likely walk away more puzzled than ever on how Perkins is so great.

On Sunday Perkins strung eight nearly perfect innings together, only getting roughed up a bit in the second inning; where the Angels struck first by scoring a run on a groundout. That inning was one of the toughest for him; 12 whole pitches. Here is a look at his inning-by-inning pitch breakdown, complete with a running total.
 

1st - 11 pitches; 11 total
2nd – 12 pitches; 23 total
3rd - 14 pitches; 37 total
4th - 8 pitches; 45 total
5th – 9 pitches; 54 total
6th - 9 pitches; 63 total
7th - 11 pitches; 74 total
8th - 10 pitches; 84 total

84 total pitches; nothing more than a long bullpen session… a light workout. He had four one-two-three innings, not including the double-play-aided third inning, but had no lucky break where under five pitches were required to retire three batters. After getting through the order once while surrendering two hits and walking one, Perkins settled down and went the remaining five innings while allowing only two hits.

There was a scare in the seventh inning when Bobby Abreu grounded out sharply to Perkins, who promptly chucked the ball to Morneau. But not before getting nailed with what the AP recap called a “blistering comebacker.” Perkins walked around the mound, successfully convinced the coaching staff that he was fine after a series of warm-up pitches, and finished off the remaining two innings by pitching through pain.

Here is a velocity histogram, courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net.

As you can see, Perkins’ arm didn’t break down in his start against the Angels. His pitches were relatively consistent throughout the afternoon, and no significant drop in velocity can be seen. Although MLB Gameday labeled a few of Perkins’ pitches as sinkers/sliders, I think it’s safe to say that he relied almost exclusively on that deadly fastball/changeup duo. As evidenced by the chart above, Perkins obviously had a few slow fastballs and a few fast changeups, but you’re going to see that in almost every start.

This next histogram shows the average speed of Perkin’s pitches.

The highest frequency is right around 89 mph. Perkins threw more fastballs than changeups, and his average fastball comes in near the upper 80s, but he can touch 90 or 91 from time to time. His changeup, or “sinker” as Gameday labels it, comes in around 79-81 mph. 

So, from all this information what do we know now about Perkins that we didn’t know before? I’ll let you be the judge of that.

For now, I’m content to be simply amazed in Glen Perkins.

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For those who missed the Friday night game between the Angels and Twins, you picked a doozy of a game to skip. Yes, the bullpen stunk… again. Yes, Nick Blackburn wasn’t at his finest… again. Yes, the Twins gave up over three runs in an inning two seperate times… again.

But on Friday Twins fans were able to overlook all the painful faults of this ulcer-causing team because of one man – Jason Kubel.

Everyone knows what went down last night: Kubel hit for the cycle, finishing the feat with a grand slam that vaulted the Twins two runs  ahead of the Angels. How did Kubel do it, though? Was his historic feat a result of poor pitching, or simply solid plate appearances? Let’s take a look at each of his at-bats on Friday, April 17.
 

1. Bottom of the 1st – Morneau on first, two outs

Kubel displayed his excellent vision in this at-bat, swinging at the second pitch, which was in the zone, but passing on the first and third pitches, which were called as balls. As of now, Kubel has made contact with 94.3 percent of all pitches in the zone. He is only swinging at 25 percent of pitches outside of the strikezone.

In this case, he waited for that 2-seam fastball and split left and center fields for a run-scoring double.
 

2. Bottom of the 3rd – bases empty, two outs

Kubel waited on that curveball he loves in this instance, avoiding two pitches outside the strikezone.
 

3. Bottom of the 6th – bases empty, one out

Once again Kubel shows off his amazing eye at the plate, letting three balls go by him before settling on a fastball right down the middle. It’s interesting that Kubel was given the green light with a 3-0 count, but with a night like he was having, why not?

Rafael Rodriguez was pitching for the Angels, and he painted the corners of the plate with almost identical pitches. His out pitch is a slider, but he fell behind Kubel and needed a strike. He threw a hittable fastball down the middle of the plate with a 3-0 count, and Kubel took him the other way for a three-bagger.
 

4. Bottom of the 8th – Nick Punto, Denard Span, Justin Morneau on base, two outs

What’s the lesson the Angel’s learned from this at-bat? Kubel is a curveball masher. With an 0-1 count, Kubel extended to launch a grand slam over the right-center field wall.

So – did Kubel have the benefit of poor pitching on Friday, or is he simply a superb batter? Both. Rodriguez and Jason Bulger didn’t have the best pitch selection, but Kubel displayed his excellent vision on Friday’s game. As Nick Nelson said, “Free Kubel!”

Take a look at these batting statistics from Kubel so far in 2009:

Quite frankly, those are impressive. Compared to Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young, Jason Kubel’s statistics look Hall-of-Fame worthy.

Is it time for Kubel to have a chance to bat every day; whether from the DH position or in the outfield?

Posted in Game Thoughts, Jason Kubel, Statistics 1 Comment

No. I’m not writing about that. No chance.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=290416109

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