Dan Wade, Bleacher Report.com, is back with the third installment in his series.
At the end of part two, we were left with a Twins team eminently ready to compete, but unable to make the small adjustments that make good teams into champions. Since asking the Twins to change their fundamental strategy is about like asking a tiger to change its stripes, it’s more useful to look at the rest of the Twins’ offseason with an eye toward the unexpected.
By traditional strategies, a solid play for the Twins would be to sign Ben Sheets to a two or three-year deal, somewhere in the $24-28 million range. With the new stadium opening, payroll shouldn’t be an object and the Twins are still under where they were in 2007. With the new surplus in pitching, the Twins could then deal someone like Glen Perkins or Nick Blackburn (plus a lower minor leaguer) for Adrian Beltre.
If those two signings didn’t make the Twins the team to beat in the A.L. Central (which they may be anyway) and almost a mortal lock to reach the playoffs, I don’t know what would.
Problem is, that plan involves giving up a first-round pick (a sure no-no), young pitching, buying a one-year rental, and taking on a ton of new salary. And while it certainly seems like a series of solid moves, Sheets’ injury history means that it isn’t without serious risk.
If the Twins do make more moves before camp opens in February, and I’d be shocked if they didn’t, they won’t be earth-shattering deals, so looking down those roads is fruitless.
The Twins probably will not add more pitching, unless they are looking to get rid of some they already have. Boof Bonser and Phillip Humber are both looking to pick up bullpen spots and rumors are swirling that recent pick-up R.A. Dickey signed with the Twins because he was all but promised a spot in the ‘pen.
Joe Nathan, Jose Mijares, and Jesse Crain are all hard throwers, so having a junk baller available might do the Twins a world of good.
In any case, Humber is out of options and Boof wants to start again, which isn’t likely to happen given the Twins current rotation. Both of these guys could be very valuable pieces in a trade if the Twins can find their replacements. Bobby Korecky hasn’t been terribly impressive in winter ball, but could get a look in spring training if there are spots open.
The Twins also have a surplus of outfielders, including Delmon Young and Denard Span. Carlos Gomez is probably safe, considering the Twins don’t want to give up on the main component of the Sanata deal so quickly. Gomez has also shown himself to be an absolutely top shelf defender while he struggled at the plate, whereas Young’s defense simply accented how disappointing he was as a hitter.
So the Twins have the pieces to make a deal if they so choose but will likely search the remnant racks of free agency as they do every year for some after New Years bargains. This strategy has netted them such gems as Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, the medical bills from Adam Everett, and Mike Lamb.
Of these, only Lamb represents a defensible signing, and this year’s crop of reclamation projects doesn’t inspire confidence.
The Twins have one major thing going for them, which is versatility in their infield. Alexi Casilla can play either second or short and recent resigning Nick Punto can cover everything left of first base, which means that the Twins are really just looking for an infielder.
Third base is the most obvious position of need, but if a good second baseman or shortstop were to emerge as a viable option, the Twins will certainly be able to pursue that option.
That said, this year’s free agents were boom or bust, and most of the booms are gone or out of the Twins radar range. Orlando Hudson will cost a pick, Joe Crede is one groundball in the hole away from the back injury that ends his career, and the trend goes down from there.
There are, however, a few players who just might make a bit of sense. The key thing to remember is that the Twins didn’t throw Nick Punto circa 2007 out there again last year, and that’s where a lot of the desperation amongst Twins fans comes from.
Punto was one of the absolute worst hitters in the recent past in 2007, which was exacerbated by Justin Morneau’s second half disappearing act and Joe Mauer’s worst year as a pro. The Twins got substantially more production out of third base last season from the platoon of Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris than they did out of Punto in 2007.
These two make an adequate pair at third, and, depending on the improvements players like Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young, Alexi Casilla, and Denard Span, they may be a good enough tandem to bring this team into the playoffs.
This really is Bill Smith’s immediate problem: He has no idea how good his team is. The Twins have five stable pieces (as stable as players are) in Mauer, Morneau, Joe Nathan, Scott Baker, and Nick Punto; Punto may even be a stretch since he hasn’t exactly been consistent at the plate. Liriano and Slowey will probably be very good, Blackburn and Perkins behind them, but still solid.
Even so, how effective they will be is a mystery. Should the Twins sell high on Perkins or is he going to continue to effectively utilize his defense?
That leaves the entire outfield, half the infield, and most of the pitching staff as variables. Even veterans like Michael Cuddyer and Matt Guerrier aren’t sure things. Cuddy is coming off an injury filled year and Guerrier struggled so badly toward the end of the season from overwork that Ron Gardenhire was forced into using Bonser, Humber and various other September call-ups.
Chances are good, though, that at least one of the Twins young players will regress, meaning adding another piece to the infield is a good strategy. The question is: With such a weak free agent market, who makes sense for the Twins to sign.
I’ve got no inside info, so these are nothing more than a few moves that would seem to improve the Twins while not compromising on any of the Twins’ fundamental principles outlined in parts one and two of this series.
(There is much more after the jump. Please read on!)
Read the rest of this entry »
