Minnesota Twins Farm System; Its Greatest Asset

Who will be the Next Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau?

Now available just before Christmas at LuLu.com is the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook – 2009. This 81 page book profiles over 175 players in the Twins minor league system. It contains a Foreword by Twins reliever Pat Neshek and several Twins prospect rankings. It is a great gift for fans of the Minnesota Twins and their minor league affiliates.

In 2008, the Twins received significant contributions from several players who have been promoted to the team within the last two years including Denard Span, Kevin Slowey,Alexi Casilla, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins and even September call-up Jose Mijares. The staples in the middle of the Twins lineup, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, and Michael Cuddyer were all drafted and developed in the Twins system.

Following players as they come up through the ranks makes the average fan feel better because losing Torii Hunter and Johan Santana can make anybody depressed. Seth is more of an optimist and adds, “Over the past several seasons, the Twins have called up a lot of players from the minor leagues. Each year there are new players. It is fun to know about those guys before they get to the big leagues. It is really just an extension of being a Twins fan.”

When asked, how much fun is it to see a player start with the Twins Gulf Coast League (GCL) team and a few years later have a locker with his name on it in the Metrodome, Seth responds, “I’m sure it’s not as much fun as a writer as it is for the player himself. But we all have had that dream, and getting to follow a player from when he is drafted and signed, through the promotions, the struggles, the successes, for them to reach that ultimate dream is a joy.”

One of the positive aspects to find and follow the next Twins All-Star is getting to interview these new players.  It is difficult to obtain a good read on players from just a box score.  Seth looks back on some of his past interviews on his www.SethSpeaks.net blog, and remembers Mike Radcliff has had a couple of really good ones. Matt Garza did one in early 2006 while he was still with the Ft. Myers Miracle. David Winfree has had a couple of very good interviews. Seth has kept in contact with players like Pat Neshek, Kevin Slowey, Jeff Manship, and others.

Seth has been writing about the Minnesota Twins and their minor league system on a daily basis since June of 2003 and now he is passing all his experience to you. Pat Nesheksays of the book, “The culmination of all his (Seth’s) hard work is this book that is deeper than anything ever published on the Minnesota Twins Minor League system.”

If you would like more information about this topic or to schedule an interview with Seth Stohs, please email Seth at SethSpeaksNet@hotmail.com.  

Once again, the great Dan Wade from Bleacher Report is filling in for me. I apoligize for the lack of content from me, but that is also probably a blessing iin disguise for you.

As much I think Joe Mauer deserved the MVP award this year, I can’t complain too much about Dustin Pedroia winning it. He reminds me of Nick Punto, but with real skill, so the appeal is clearer.

What I can complain about is Justin Morneau finishing second and Mauer getting just two first place votes and winding up in fifth place. Don’t get me wrong, Morneau had a great season, and had he not gone into his late season swoon he probably would have won it.

Then again, had Carlos Quentin remembered that the bat is supposed to hit the ball, not your own wrist, the award was probably his to lose.

Mauer’s contribution to the Twins this year went far beyond the offensive stats that make the Baseball writers swoon. He finally won the Gold Glove he has deserved for the past few seasons, won the AL Batting title again, had an OBP over .400, and, most importantly, he held together baseball’s youngest pitching staff in the heat of a pennant chase.

Joe Mauer was, beyond a shadow of a doubt, the Twins’ most valuable player, but could his loss be the Twins’ gain?

Mauer’s current contract runs out after the 2010 season, the season the Twins will move into Target Field. Common sense says the increase in payroll will be a perfect time to resign Mauer to a long-term deal. 

I say, strike while the iron is hot and lock him up now.

Mauer is the best catcher in the AL and likely the best in baseball. Brian McCann is probably Mauer’s closest competition, and has better power numbers, but I’ll trade 50 points of OPS for Gold Glove caliber defense any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Mauer isn’t showing signs of a decrease in skill. He’ll likely compete for the batting title and gold glove again next year. If his power numbers improve just a bit, he’ll probably be amongst the early favorites for MVP. He’ll have had a full year with this pitching staff, and will be able to call games that much better.

All this to say: Mauer isn’t going to get cheaper. His first two contracts were signed near market-value, which goes up exponentially rather than linearly. An MVP year in 2010 could push Mauer out of the Twins’ normal price range, which would be a P.R. disaster.

Losing Johan Santana was one thing, losing Mauer, the “local boy made good”, would be devastating.

Resigning Mauer isn’t a risk free proposition. His 146 games this year was a career high, and his knees won’t last forever. He’ll either start missing more games or he’ll need to move out from behind the plate, likely to third base.

Part of Mauer’s value is that he produces from a traditionally dead position; getting such production from a catcher is part of the reason the Twins can afford to have Nick Punto at third. If he has to move to a more traditional power position, he will lose some of his uniqueness and therefore, some of his value.

The question for the Twins is whether or not Mauer is worth the gamble; will he continue to produce at a high level after 2010 or will his injury history be the story of his career?

The answer appears to be yes. Mauer’s skills aren’t the kind that decay quickly. His eye at the plate is stellar, he works pitchers well, and he’s smart. Those traits will survive a position change, and will continue to serve Mauer well long after his knees give out. He can catch for a few more seasons and then move if need be, but he will continue to be an asset.

The Twins need to lock Mauer up before the rest of the league has a chance to get their bids in on him. Its only a matter of time before he claims more hardware and his value erupts, so now, while he’s still getting snubbed, the Twins need to strike.

Casey Blake’s long and winding road through baseball might be coming full circle.

According to a number of sources, the Twins are preparing an offer to Blake that would bring the veteran third baseman back the Metrodome, where he spent 29 games over the course of three seasons.

Blake is reportedly looking for a three year offer and will likely get a raise from the 6.1 million dollars he earned last year. Neither the length of the contract, nor the amount Blake will receive should raise eyebrows; the deal itself is fairly unremarkable, but it raises some interesting questions.

Bob Warja asked me a few months ago what signing Adrian Beltre would accomplish, since he would be a one year player and then would bolt during free agency. If this team is looking long-term, why are they trying a short-term solution?

While Blake would be locked in for longer than Beltre, he is far from a long-term solution. So, the question is: Are the Twins reloading for the future or trying to win for now?

After mulling the question over every way it can be mulled, its time for an answer: I don’t know, and sadly, neither do the Twins.

Casey Blake is a perfect fit for the Twins’ ‘are-we-in-or-are-we-rebuilding’ mentality. He’ll be cheap enough to be benched if Luke Hughes or Danny Valencia suddenly start raking and yet will never be the piece that kills a good team. He’s decidedly decent, both offensively and defensively, which is an upgrade from the platoon the Twins trotted out last year.

Blake isn’t the piece the Twins have been missing: a .270 hitter with 20-HR power is rarely the difference between making the playoffs and just missing them. He is, however, good enough to be the third baseman on a playoff team that has its act together otherwise. The Twins have most of their positions locked up.

While he isn’t nearly as sexy a player as Adrian Beltre is, Casey Blake makes good sense for the Twins. Signing Blake gives the Twins a few years to pick their spot; signing Beltre locks them into next year, which injuries can easily derail.

Danny Valencia has laid an egg in the Arizona Fall League, hitting a paltry .225 with almost no power, and Luke Hughes looks little better in Venezuela, so the future may not be as close as the Twins thought it was heading into the fall seasons, which makes Blake an even better solution.

The AL Central is very much up for grabs this year, and if the Twins can make a few savvy moves this offseason, they may well emerge as the favorite to start the season. Casey Blake won’t wow anyone, but if he can provide the consistently solid play that has become his hallmark, he may help the Twins bridge the gap between winning now and preparing for an even better future in Target Field.

-Dan Wade, Bleacher Report

Be sure to get your preorder in for Seth’s new book, Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2009.

Also, be sure to come back soon for a new statistical piece I am researching. I think you’ll enjoy it…once I finally get it done.

According to the LEN III, the Twins may offer Casey Blake a contract as soon as next week, while others say that a “framework” has already been offered.

I have mixed feelings about this development. The first thing that comes to mind is disgust; I would rather do three things than be forced to sign an old, frail third baseman with some pop and horrible defense. Here are the three things that I would rather do than sign Blake…

Trade for Adrian Beltre

I’m convinced the Twins have enough to get a deal done. Beltre has one of the best gloves in the game and carries a very solid bat at the plate. He would be a huge asset to an already powerful Twins middle-of-the-order.

It wouldn’t take tons to get Beltre; but probably more than usual. The Mariners are stuck in the middle of a rebuilding mode and want to get as much fresh talent as possible. However, in the same light they might also want to get rid of Beltre and his hefty contract at all costs. Whatever the case, the Twins could probably make a deal with Seattle involving Michael Cuddyer, Glen Perkins, and a lesser prospect.

The Twins could most likely land Beltre, but the question then raised is, “do they want to?”

Trade for Garrett Atkins

This deal could also be made. The Rockies just traded for closer Huston Street, and there has been much talk about possibly turning him around and trading him again to fill other holes. The Twins have been mentioned among those who might be interested in Street, with the recent news that Neshek will miss 2009.

Joe C. disagrees. Huston Street was paid closer money, and the Twins have an elite closer in Joe Nathan already. I agree with Joe — although it would be nice to have a player of Street’s caliber in the Twins bullpen. If his ego would allow him to slide into the set-up role the 2009 Twins bullpen would be among the top in the league.

Back to Atkins, though. He would provide a great bat in the middle of the lineup. Or would he? The biggest question raised about him is his awful home/road splits. He is hitting .342/.380/.523 with a .904 OPS in Colorado, but a dismal .233/.278/.383 with an OPS of .661on the road. Some may dispute whether or not the hitter-friendly Coors Field is the only reason Atkins is even worthy of a starting spot on a major league team.

It is risky to trade for Atkins, but it could reap huge dividends. If a change of scenery is all this soon-to-be 29-year old needs, than the Twins should jump at any chance of trading Michael Cuddyer and/or Glen Perkins for him. Of course, there is no way to know whether or not he would be a trade bust.

Will strikeouts hamper Kouzmanoff's tradability?

Trade for Kevin Kouzmanoff

Kouzmanoff is my third most-wanted commodity. He has a lot of power potential, but strikes out a lot. Being 27 years old he still has some years left in the tank, and he has a very reasonable price tag — $410,000 last year. His defense isn’t the best and would be about the same as Buscher’s.

The thing the Twins most need is a power-hitting, right-handed third baseman. Kouzmanoff fills that void perfectly, but comes bundled with excessive strikeouts. 

Those are the three things that I would do before I ever offered Blake a contract. On the other hand, after thinking about this latest development for a while, I have realized that I am simply glad GM Bill Smith has done something.

He has been sitting on his hands for too long. He was pushed around when dealing with Santana and settled for less than what the best pitcher in the league was worth. If he can make at least a couple of major acquisitions this off-season, he will start asserting himself as a force to be reckoned with in baseball.

Blake is a perfect example of a Minnesota Twin. Bill Smith may be attempting to make his team better through a free agent signing — which is what is expected of him. He is too new to break the mold of what the Twins believe in, however, so he may not yet feel comfortable going against countless years of small-ball.

Casey Blake may seem like a minor pick-up, but it could be a modest start to the Bill Smith era.