Shoe or swordfish?

A fisherman went out for a day of fishing in the ocean. After a few minutes he felt a nibble on his line. Now, this ocean was renowned for the countless abandoned shoes and tires resting at the bottom, but that didn’t stop the fisherman. Even though there was very good chance of getting stuck with a shoe, the hope of a swordfish propelled him on.

But what does his line hold? He doesn’t know, can’t know, but wouldn’t dare let go.

That is how the Minnesota Twins are looking right now. Nobody knows what 2009 will bring, but the hope of a World Series appearance forces them, and us a fans, on.

Obviously, a huge determining factor of whether the Twins get a shoe or a swordfish depends on what bait you use, or what team you field. If Bill Smith decides that it would be best for the organization if he didn’t sign any fresh talent, the weight at the end of our line may be in vain.

Or would it?

Would focusing on 2010 year and slating 2009 as a “rebuilding year” really hurt the franchise? As Rodney King said, “can’t we all just get along?” Why can’t those two ends of the spectrum collide and form a new philosophy? A new baseball mindset where all is not won or lost in one year, but long periods of time are not set aside for internal growth.

Sure, the Minnesota minor league system holds some promising young talent, but the Twins can win now without them. At least, that is the way fans should think.

There are pitfalls to that motivation, though. When you hope for a swordfish you can only be disappointed with lesser results. If you go into the season knowing that there is a shoe at the end of your line, you have to be grateful, whatever the results.

That raises the official question for 2009: Do the Twins focus on 2009 or 2010? Long-term or short-term?

Discuss what you would prefer in the comment section. Do you want the Twins to focus on 2010 and call this upcoming year a “rebuilding mode”? Or, would you prefer the Twins to go all-out this year and sign whatever and whoever it takes to bring a championship in 2009?

The do-or-die, or the wait-until-next-year? A compromise, maybe? Please discuss this, and whether you think the Twins will pull up another swordfish in 2009, or be stuck with a shoe.

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A brief post today, as I have been very busy.

• Aaron Gleeman has some notes about the Twins’ 40-man roster and the moves that were recently made. He also touches on the incredible control of a certain Kevin Slowey. I had never realized how great he was until I read this:

He faced 344 right-handed batters and handed out a grand total of three walks while striking out 57 and allowing a .246/.254/.383 line. Not only did his ratio of 19 strikeouts per walk versus righties lead baseball, the next-best mark was Mike Mussina at 8.3-to-1 and no other starter was above 7-to-1.

• Warren Williams has an interesting piece up on Bleacher Report throwing around the possibility of the Twins trading for Garrett Atkins. Would the Twins be willing to give up Michael Cuddyer? A very good read, please check it out.
   
• Joe C. reports that Double-A New Britain will be managed by Tom Nieto. Nieto was a catcher on the ‘87 Championship team.
   
• Josh Johnson of Josh’s Thoughts also has his thoughts on the recent moves the Twins made to their 40-man roster. 

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Matt Garza

Ask anyone in the media who won the Rays-Twins trade that took place last winter, and the verdict is already in. Irrespective of what happens to Delmon Young and Matt Garza from here on out, the Twins got hosed and the Rays made out like bandits.

And all it took was one game.

Not to take anything away from Matt Garza, who shook off Dustin Pedrioa’s early blast to lead the Devil Rays into the World Series en route to claiming ALCS MVP honors, but it seems to be to be a little early to place him in the pantheon of “Incredible Trades” along with Lou Brock, Joe Nathan (and Francisco Liriano), and Jeff Bagwell.

Those three trades were epic failures, and it is simply too soon to put that tag on Delmon Young.

Garza’s line for the year was a good, but far from overwhelming, 11-9, 3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. Thankfully, Delmon Young really hit the skids and that’s where Garza’s extreme value comes from…. right?

Delmon’s drop in production, his sophomore slump if you will, is more a factor of too much hype and less of an actual decrease in production. 

His rookie numbers, good for second place in the ROY voting(.288/.316/.405) aren’t all that different from this year’s slash line (.290/.336/.405). So, while many fans expected more out of the super talented kid, he wasn’t nearly as bad as many perceived him to be this season.

I’m more than willing to agree that over the course of this season, Matt Garza was the prize of the Twins-Rays trade. He pitched well on the biggest stage the Rays have seen so far in franchise history. Garza may continue to be the best piece in that deal, but it is far too soon to call Delmon Young a flop and to add Matt Garza’s name to the list of players you can’t believe someone traded.

Dan Wade, Bleacher Report

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I know this has exactly nothing to do with the Twins, but I think a break from baseball is in order. I’m sure there are college basketball fans out there, and I’m sure some of you have heard the news that Arizona Wildcat’s coach Lute Olson has retired. This hits home for me especially because Tucson, Arizona is where I call home. I wrote up this article in his honor, and I thought I’d share it with you guys. Enjoy!

Lute Olson

Excitement rippled through the crowd that day in 1983. When word spread of Lute Olson’s hiring by the University of Arizona you could almost hear the screeching of brakes. The red and blue train of Wildcat basketball—at the time located in the depths of despair and little hope—was being turned around completely.

Everyone knew Arizona’s dull days may be over. 

Lute Olson enjoyed 24 years of great success as the head basketball coach of the Arizona Wildcats. His tenure made him one of the most charismatic, brilliant, and loved coaches of all time.

How could one not smile when looking at a 74-year old, white-haired head coach stomping up and down the court after a referee? The fact that he did so without the use of profanities only enshrined him more in the hearts of his fan base.

Despite Olson’s long list of accomplishments, this recent news of his stepping down will be coupled with a storm of controversy. 

Back in May 2008, Olson stated that he planned to coach for another five to six years, or at least until his contract ran out in 2011. This same promise was issued to many potential players, including top recruits Abdul Gaddy, Mike Moser, and Soloman Hill. All three have commited to Arizona, but Gaddy is quoted as saying that this announcement will certainly make him think again and possibly change his mind entirely.

It is ironic that the main cause of debate surrounding Olson’s retirement was also perhaps the strongest aspect of his coaching ability.

Olson had no trouble finding the top high school players in the country and getting them to commit to Arizona. He was renowned for his nationwide roving eye for talent; he didn’t limit his searches to the Southwest.

In fact, Olson has produced some of the greatest NBA stars of all time. Steve Kerr, Mike Bibby, Gilbert Arenas, Jason Terry, Damon Stoudamire, Andre Igudala, and Richard Jefferson are all products of Lute Olson and the Arizona Wildcats. Former Wildcats have amassed over $500 million in NBA contracts.

Those astounding numbers and his sensational recruiting methods say nothing about Olson’s brilliant basketball mind. Who would have thought that a North Dakotan Norwegian would have one of the highest basketball IQs in the world?

The list of things that Olson has provided for the city of Tucson and the University of Arizona is endless. 312 consecutive weeks in the Associated Press national poll. Five seasons holding the #1 position in the poll. 24 straight NCAA Tournament appearances. Four trips to the Final Four. One National Championship.

589 wins.

Lute Olson

All this success seems to be coming to a crashing halt, though, according to various members of the Arizona fanbase. Some believe that Olson shouldn’t be held in such high regard now that he backed out on a promise to future recruits, current players, the University, and every fan who ever sported a blue and red shirt.

The majority of the blame for Olson’s departure is being thrust upon health concerns, though. His first wife—Bobby Olson—died of ovarian cancer in 2001. Lute Olson took a leave of absence for the entire 2007-08 season due to his own “medical condition that was not life threatening.”

Whatever the condition was, it certainly played a role in Olson’s decision to leave basketball entirely.

Arizona basketball would never have reached the height of success it has without the work of Lute Olson. This two-time Coach of the Year played an instrumental role in the lives of hundreds of young men across the country, and he will never be forgotten.

While some may say that this is the end of Lute Olson’s legacy on college basketball, some know it to be just the beginning.

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Denard Span’s first game as a Twin was on April 6th against the Kansas City Royals. Going 0-2 with a walk was an innocent enough major league debut, but what Minnesota fans didn’t know about Span would pleasantly surprise them in the future: this kid could do everything.

Read the rest of this entry »

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If you can’t see the picture below, just click on it.

These numbers are very new and shouldn’t be the basis for an entire evaluation, but it is still fun to look at how players we are familiar with are faring in the Winter Leagues.

Steven Tolleson has been a surprise so far, sporting a .308/.367/.385 line with an OPS of 751. He has seven RBI through nine games and 26 at-bats. Danny Rondon has also been a pleasant surprise so far. He has thrown 5.2 innings and has an ERA of 1.59. He has only surrendered one run on five hits through three games, and has done so without the help of a double play. A few other players’ stats are horribly bloated, and shouldn’t be taken very seriously.

What else do you see from these stats? Anything we should be worrying about? excited for?

With that, have a great rest of the day, Twins fan!

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Edwin Encarnacion      

Yesterday I took a look at the possibility of the Twins trading away Ben Revere and Chris Parmelee to get Ian Stewart and Will Harris. While certainly improbable, it is not out of the question.

As I said yesterday, the most likely course of action for the Twins would be to bring in a veteran third baseman with a proven bat and a decent glove. He would cover the left corner for a year until the great Danny Valencia is ready for action. This route may be the cheapest, but there is another to consider: trading for a young third baseman.

Edwin Encarnacion is a 25-year old third baseman for the Cincinnati Reds. He quietly hit 26 home runs last year, along with an OPS of 806. He posted a line of .251/.340/.466. He is a perfect power-hitting third baseman. His defense, though, is less-than-stellar and that will be among the first things noticed by fans and management alike. With Nick Punto guarding the left infield bag last year, a drop in defensive prowess is almost guarenteed.

Encarnacion had one of, if not the worst seasons of his career in 2008, both at the plate and on the field. He suffered drops in his BABIP, line drive rate, contact rate, number of steals, and struck out more.  He is still growing and maturing, though, and it must be remembered that he is only 26 years old. His home run total is the highest of his career, however, as is his fly ball rate.

One explanation for this strange increase/decrease is his new-found ability to be patient. He had more walks in 2008, and more strikeouts come in the same package with being more patient.

The only real problem I see with Encarnacion is his defense. He is one of the worst in the league, but Valencia doesn’t have the best glove either. Encarnacion may actually be better than Valencia in the long-run.

Encarnacion is eligible for arbitration this year but only made $400,000 in 2008. The Twins could certainly afford his contract, but could they afford the lofty fees the Reds would insist upon? Here is a possiblity:

Twins Give

Brendan Harris, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Anthony Slama, RHP, Single A Fort Myers

Reds Give

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Cincinnati Reds

The Twins benefit from this by receiving the third baseman they need right away. I have no doubt that Encarnacion will improve from last year as he is still maturing as a major league hitter. He won’t be a threat to steal many bases, but has the power to knock home some runners. He would be a great addition to the middle of the Twins’ lineup.

It has been suggested that all Encarnacion needs is a change of scenery and he will return to his previous form. The Reds aren’t contenders every year, but with the addition of Encarnacion and a few other select moves the Twins could be in the thick of the AL Central race.

The Reds will get a third baseman who can immediately provide decent defense and offense. The defensive jump at the left corner would be huge. Encarnacion didn’t have the best attitude when playing for the Reds, and I doubt they hold on to him with too firm a grip. If they can find somebody willing to play with their young team who has marginal offense and defense, they should jump at the offer.

Although the Reds’ major league bullpen is very solid there are some weak spots further down the minor league totem pole. Slama dominated in Single A Fort Myers and wasn’t promoted all year. If he remains with the Twins he will certainly start out 2009 in Double A. If he were traded to the Reds he would potentially have to spend a little time with High-A Sarasota, but would spend the majority of the year in Double-A Chattanooga. He may even be promoted to Triple-A Louisville before the year is over. Either way, Slama should be ready for major-league service in 2010.

What do you think? Be sure to leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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We all know the offseason can drag on and on, so from time to time I’ll provide you guys with a potential trade to chew on. As a disclaimer, this is nothing but speculation and has nothing to do with published reports unless I specifically say that it is.

Twins Give Up

Ben Revere, OF, Single-A, 20-years old, .379/.433/.497 with 903 OPS
Chris Parmelee, OF-1B, Single-A, 20-years old, .239/.385/.496 with 881 OPS

Rockies Give Up

Ian Stewart, 3B, 23-years old, .259/.349/.455 in 81 MLB games
Will Harris, RHP, High-A, 23-years old, 3-5, 2.77 ERA, 70 SO/20 BB, 61.2 IP

The Twins get an immediate solution for third base, albeit a young one. Stewart should have a very solid major league career for many years to come. This obviously creates some competition for Danny Valencia, who should be ready for the major leagues as soon as late 2009. The general thought among Twins fans is to find a veteran left-infielder to plug the hole while we wait for Valencia. The Twins would be banking on Valencia in a major way if they choose that route. This new approach leaves the Twins with some options when Valencia is ready. 

Obviously, Revere and Parmelee are tough to give up, and Revere is coming off a superb season. However, his trade value will never be higher. There is still a great deal of bust potential with him, and the Twins already have a log jam in the outfield for the next decade. Parmelee will be ready to go in the majors in a few years, but there is really no room for him. The outfield is locked up, as is first base.

While Stewart coming off a good 2008 campaign with the Rockies, Will Harris is stuck in Single-A. He is somewhat old for that level, but had a good year this year as well. He has the potential to be a good middle-to-end of the rotation guy and the Twins might have need for one of those in a few years.

This trade is purely hypothetical, and I don’t endorse it in any way, but what do you think?

As a side note, there will be another Q&A on Thursday, October 23rd. I won’t tell who it is yet, but I can say that he is in Seth’s Top 10. I’ll also be doing a Q&A with Tyler Ladendorf in a few weeks. I want to open this later one up to everyone, so if you have a question for Tyler please email it to me and I’ll get it to him.

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I am pleased to announce the first of hopefully many Question & Answer pieces here at TwinsFix. This week, we have Eli Tintor; a 23-year old outfield prospect who spent this past year with the Fort Myers Miracle.

Eli was drafted by the Twins in the 18th round of the 2003 Draft as an 18-year old, and was sent immediately to the GCL Twins. He put up a solid .266/.329/.313 there. He spent the next year with the GCL Twins, then played seven games with the Fort Myers Miracle in High A ball. 

He spent 2005 with the E-Town Twins and hit at at a .281/.327/.410 clip through 40 games.  He was then promoted to Beloit where he spent 116 games working on his .285/.320/.429 line and quadrupling his home run total. 

2007 was spent between the Fort Myers Miracle and the Beloit Snappers. This past season was spent entirely with the Miracle. In the 71 games he played he posted a line of .253/.317/.397 with twelve 2B, two 3B, six HR, and 23 RBI.

Let’s start the questions!

Eli: Well I must admit I do miss football quite a bit. I passed up my scholarship out of high school to go play baseball for the twins, and I do not regret that decision at all but at times I wish I could strap it on again and get out there.

 

Eli: Shoot, I was always doing something for some sport. If it wasn’t setting up a batting cage in whatever type of building we could find to hit, I was always participating in other sports like wrestling a little bit, basketball a little bit, playing rink hockey and so on. I was a mediocre student you know. My senior year I was up in the 3 point area so not too shabby.

 

Eli: Oh yeah, I am still friends with all the high school guys. It’s such a small town up here so if everyone comes home it is like a big reunion so everyone knows everyone and we are all pals up here.

 

Eli: Yeah pretty much that was how I got started. When I was real young my dad just kind of threw me back there and I loved it. So it was just natural for me to be a catcher. I always catch some bullpens now if they need someone so I havent lost it at all.

Posted in Uncategorized No Comments Tags: Eli Tintor, Minor League, Prospects, Question & Answers

Few things in life are as fun as talking about the future, and baseball is no different. The debate and discussion started when reviewing, ranking, and projecting minor league prospects can last hours without a true answer. The main reason for this frustration is the lack of a sound definition of “prospect.” Just what is a prospect?

The general answer is a combination of a player’s chance of making it to the majors, and how good a player could potentially be. The question is how much value to place on either of these.

So, for the sake of argument, I am going to create a list of ten prospects (but in reality I could do hundreds) and set them against a weighted formula. I value how good a player could potentially be (ceiling) over his chance of actually making it to the majors.

In the formula below, ‘X’ is the same as ceiling, while ‘Y’ is chance of making it to the majors.

X (1.50) + Y (1.00)

Very simple, I know, but at least it gives us something to start with. What the current numbers I have signify is just a flat-out ranking based on chance of making it to the majors with a boost given to those who have a higher ceiling.

Before we can rank the top ten prospects, we have to rank the players who have the highest ceiling and best chance of making it to the majors. These are my rankings, and they are obviously debatable. (I also attached a value to each one.)

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Posted in Uncategorized 7 Comments Tags: Minor League, Prospects