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Nothing to Play For? Why The Tigers Won’t Lay Down For The Sox

Posted September 29th, 2008 by Vacant


The Twins and Sox finally got their respective acts together Sunday and beat two of the peskiest teams in recent memory.

With nothing to play for but pride, the Indians and Royals tormented the exhausted Sox and Twins in the first two games of three game series, but they couldn’t sustain it into game three.

Scott Baker gave the Twins the shut-down start they needed. He allowed just five baserunners in his seven innings, while striking out nine Royals. The bats didn’t produce much of note beyond Mauer’s two run triple, but they didn’t need to. Baker never let the Royals into the game and Jose Mijares, the apparent set-up man for Joe Nathan, and the closer didn’t falter. All in all, Twins pitchers struck out twice as many Royals as they allowed to reach base.

Down on the South side, Mark Buehrle was equally effective. He allowed just one run in his seven innings even though he gave up 10 baserunners. Buehrle escaped damage by inducing four double plays and eliminating any threats the Indians tried to surmount. Thornton and Jenks slammed the door shut on Cleveland’s season, and made Freddy Garcia the most important pitcher in baseball at this moment.

While the Twins regular season is done, all 162 games of it, the White Sox missed one. The Detroit Tigers had consecutive games rained out at US Cellular Field and were only able to make one of them up, due to a lack of common off days betwen the two teams. Tomorrow, the White Sox will finish their regular season by pitting their best pitcher, Gavin Floyd, against the man he was traded for, namely, Freddy Garcia.

Floyd is coming off back to back subpar outings, but he is still the man the Sox want on the hill. If he can hit his spots and contain the emotions which willbe hightened due to the magnitude of this game, Floyd will make life difficult on the potent Tigers offense. Realistically, however, the weight of the game lies on Garcia.

This will be just the third start of the season for the 32 year old vet, who missed much of the year with an arm injury, and easily the biggest he’s been in since he defeated the streaking Minnesota Twins exactly two years from Monday. Garcia will need to shut down the White Sox offense, especially Paul Konerko, who has homered in his last three games.

The Sox aren’t the only team with something on the line tomorrow, the Tigers may be out of the playoffs, but an extra loss seals their place at the bottom of the AL Central. If they win, they will tie the Royals for fourth. It may not seem like much, but it will likely be enough to keep players like Miguel Cabrera from just going through the motions while checking their voicemail between innings to see if their agent got a tee time for tomorrow morning or afternoon.

The longer Garcia can keep his old team off the board, the better the chance his teammates will get behind him and try to win some pride. If the Tigers can shock the Sox at home, the Twins will take the division title going away, like they did in 2006. However, if the Sox can sustain the momentum they produced today, the 2008 season will head into extra innings.

Dan Wade, Bleacher Report

BallHype: hype it up! Posted in Division No Comments

Simply Incredible

Posted September 26th, 2008 by Vacant

What can I say? If you missed the game, you will probably be sorry for the rest of your life. 

If you want a feeling of the ride up and down the emotional roller coaster, just look to the left. Simply incredible. 
While luck and some umpiring mistakes probably contributed to this win, so did almost every player on the Minnesota roster. Here are my five September 25th MVPs:
1. Denard Span

3-4, 3 RBI, 1 R, 1 BB, 0 SO, 1 3B
While thrilled on the outside, I’m sure Michael Cuddyer is worrying about his future on the inside. Span is now hitting .299 on the season and was one of the most important factors in this amazing win. His RBI triple in the eighth tied the game up and, as you can see from the FanGraph chart above, had over a 50% win probability impact on the game. I’m perfectly willing to give that hit the title of “Most Important Hit of the Year.” Easily.
2. Carlos Gomez

4-5, 3 RBI, 3 R, 2 3B
Do I have to say any more? Gomez was also incredible tonight.
3. Joe Nathan

I’ve said for a while that Nathan should be allowed to go more than one inning. I’m almost glad that Slowey left the game early, which led to the use of six relievers, which forced Nathan to go six outs. To all those Nathan-haters out there: what now? He went two perfect innings and finished with a WPA+ of .286. He only struck out two, but that was all that was needed. Major props to him and here’s hoping he is used more in these next three games – and potentially more. (Also included here is Gardy. He had the guts to leave Nathan on the mound for the 10th when Mijares, Guardado, Humber, and Korecky were all ready for use. The boink-o-meter will be lowering several levels tonight.)
2. The Bullpen
Following a night of four scoreless relief innings the bullpen came out and provided 6.1 inning of two-hit ball; both of those coming off Jesse Crain. Guerrier, Reyes, Bonser, Breslow, and Nathan all refused to give up a hit. Normally the ones who are most likely to be the subject of our wrath, they relieve all the glory tonight. To quote “Alexi Casilla All-Star” – whose moniker is especially adaquate today :
Given Floyd hasn’t pitched well so far, if the Twins can hold the Sox to 6 runs, they will win the game. It is not likely that happens, but anything can happen.
He posted that on Twinkie Town at 8:46 pm CST; right after the Slowey collapse. Cheers to him for the prediction, but I boo ye of little faith.
1. Everybody Else – Except Morneau and Young

I can’t name everybody. This game was obviously a team effort, and everybody deserves credit and thanks. (I feel like I’m giving an acceptance speech.) The down note, though, is that the two biggest power hitters on this year combined to go 0-10 with three strikeouts. But let’s not talk about how Morneau almost killed his MVP chances in one game. Let’s not talk about the lack of patience that Young displayed tonight, seemingly ruining everything he has worked on and progressed from so far this year. Let’s just not talk about that.
Let’s focus on Mauer, and his 3-5 game. His average is now up to .330, and another batting title seems imminent. Let’s talk about the clutch hits Punto and Harris recorded, as well as the one Kubel hit. Let’s focus on that.
Baseball is a crazy game. Totally unpredictable, and absolutely fun to watch. I dare you to tell me that baseball is a boring sport. This win was obviously incredible, and it should be treated as such. The Twins are leading the division on September 26th! Here are my realist views of what will happen in the future. If you want to continue to savor the win and refuse to be bogged down with sad, albeit realistic views, turn the channel now.
We have to remember that both the Twins and White Sox aren’t very good teams at all. Both have huge holes to fill. In all likelihood, whoever reaches the playoffs out of the Central will be swept. Our division is woefully bad this year, but will improve in the future. This win should be treated as it has been; the biggest of the year, but should also be taken with a grain of salt.
That said, enjoy this one! It was a remarkable game and the adrenaline is still pumping!
BallHype: hype it up! Posted in Bullpen, Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young, Denard Span, Game Thoughts, Joe Nathan, Justin Morneau No Comments

The Fading Role of the Starting Pitcher

Posted September 24th, 2008 by Vacant
Nick Nelson was kind enough to ask me to participate in September’s edition of GameDay. If you have the chance, please go to a Twins game before the season is over and buy a handful to keep these guys in buisness! Here is my piece:

Baseball is a dynamic game. It is constantly evolving thanks to changing roles, rules and faces. The two roles that have undergone perhaps the most dramatic changes over the years are the starting pitcher and, in turn, the reliever.
It’s no real secret that starting pitchers have taken a big step back in innings pitched over the decades. But how dramatic is this change, and why is it happening?
In the average major league bullpen in 2000, a pitcher was asked to pitch an average of 2.98 innings per game. In 2006, that number crept past 3. Through August 18, 2008 that number had grown to 3.09. Since there are still nine innings in a game, this gradual increase in bullpen workload obviously means that starting pitchers are racking up fewer and fewer innings.
Of course, these recent trends are nothing compared to stark difference between a starter’s role in the modern era and the 1970s. 
Take as an example the 1975 Twins. Bert Blyleven led that team with twenty complete games. The next two pitchers in the rotation both had at least twelve. The remainder of the team’s hurlers combined for ten complete games. That put the Twins’ 1975 complete game total at 57. In 2007, Minnesota starters combined for only five complete games.
In 1975 the Twins’ top five starting pitchers logged 63 2/3 more innings than the 2007 top five starters. Perhaps one of the largest reasons for this change is a fundamental difference in the way pitchers are taught to throw. There is a greater emphasis on pitch velocity and this can wear arms out more quickly. The methods of studying the game have improved with technology, and as such the modern pitcher is ever closer to maximizing his potential.
Pitching a baseball puts an incredible amount of strain on the arm. When you consider the force that goes into every pitch it’s practically a minor miracle when a starting pitcher can go through a full season without a stint on the disabled list. Injuries to pitchers are more pervasive now than they were in the ’70s despite the decreased workload, seemingly indicating that today’s pitchers are putting more strain on their arms than ever before.
Coupled with better pitching is improving batting. Better bats and equipment exist in this modern era as well as more advanced swings. Just look at Willie Mays and Barry Bonds. Mays didn’t even wear batting gloves back in the ’50s and ’60s. Meanwhile, there were medieval jousters who wore less armor than Bonds. Shin and wrist guards, shoulder straps, and batting gloves were constantly on his person when he stepped to the plate in 2007. (And we’re just talking about the external performance enhancers here….) In 1975, the average major-league hitter batted .258 with a .327 on-base percentage and .374 slugging percentage. In 2007, those numbers were .268/.336/.423. Those are increases across the board, with a dramatic rise in power. With more runs being scored, managers will, naturally, pull starters from games faster.
Another thing that should be considered when comparing starters between these two eras is the division races. Back in the mid-70s there were only four divisions, two in each league. With six teams in each division there were always a number of teams that were considered “hopeless.” Take for example the 1975 National League West. Cincinnati demolished that division, with second place Los Angeles twenty games behind. Sixth place Houston finished 43.5 games behind the Reds.
When faced with a deficit like that, it is unlikely the other teams in the NL West did everything possible to win. It stands to reason that they let their pitchers get in more work than normal because the games really weren’t all that crucial. But in today’s era of six divisions and wild-card spots, there are generally at least six or seven teams in either league legitimately competing for a playoff spot throughout most of the year, adding increased importance to each game. Today’s managers may be more compelled to remove a starter early on in order to utilize the more specialized bullpen roles.

This increased pressure to win also puts managers on the hot seat when it comes to keeping starting pitchers healthy. It may not be the case that 100 pitches in a game is the magical number limit that means the difference between a starter being healthy or at risk. Really, how convenient of a number is that? But it has become accepted as a common wisdom. If a manager lets a starter throw 130 pitches in consecutive games only to see him go down with an arm injury later in the season, that skipper will be exposed to endless criticism and perhaps unemployment.

All of these factores help lead to a generally more conservative managerial approach when it comes to handling the modern starting pitcher. The Twins’ bullpen has been worn thin this year, which has led to inconsistency and ineffectiveness, but that’s hardly a trait unique to this team. Bullpens tend to receive considerably more work these days while starters are generally treated with extreme caution.
While broadcasting games on television, Blyleven frequently reminisces about the way the game used to be played, a tinge of disappointment in his voice over a perceived babying of today’s starters. But whether the traditionalists like it or not, modern baseball is a game of specialized roles. And the role of a starting pitcher, it seems, is diminishing with each passing year.

BallHype: hype it up! Posted in GameDay Appearance 3 Comments

Twins Take First of Three Key Games

Posted September 24th, 2008 by Vacant

One team hit six extra base hits, including three bombs. The other just one.

The Twins’ top 4 hitters went 2-17.

The Twins’ bullpen gave up runs late in the game once again.

Given those three facts, the 9-3 result isn’t a shock, what is shocking is that the race for the division is now closer, not further away. 

The Twins rode three home runs, two by Jason Kubel, a controversial selection by Ron Gardenhire, and another by Delmon Young to a resounding 9-3 win under Teflon skies. The Twins hit Javier Vasquez and the rest of the Sox pitchers hard, harder than they hit anyone on their 10-game roadtrip, but they also played the smallball style that drives Ozzie Guillen crazy as well as they’ve played all season.

The Twins stole bases and executed a perfect suicide squeeze in the fourth inning, but it was all more than they would need. Scott Baker gave up just one run in his seven innings of work. He struck out just 4, but he also kept the Sox off of the bases, or pitched well out of danger. Matt Guerrier gave up a late home run to Ken Griffey Jr., but the game was long in the books before then.

As nice as this win was, it was just the first of three critical games. The question which rises from a win like this is: Will the Sox come out like a team possessed tomorrow, trying to make up for such a lopsided loss, or will they begin to second guess their ability to win in the Dome?

In the end, only one thing results from this game and that is the fact that the Sox can no longer clinch the division in this series. Everything else remains contingent on how the rest of the series plays out. Nevertheless, this was a huge win for the Twins and sets the stage for another key matchup tomorrow night between Nick Blackburn and Mark Buehrle.

Dan Wade, Bleacher Report

BallHype: hype it up! Posted in Division, Jason Kubel, Ron Gardenhire No Comments

An Indepth Look At The NL Cy Young Award Race

Posted September 23rd, 2008 by Vacant

There are numerous ways to look at the Cy Young Award, and possibly many different winners based on many different points of view. There are a plethora of ways to discern what characteristics the winner of this award should have.

Should actual talent be measured with more weight than performance? How does team success or how valuable a player is factor into the picture? 

My answer? Take a look from every angle and go from there. 

The AL Cy Young award is pretty much locked up with the winner being Cleveland Indian Cliff Lee. He has over 20 wins and the lowest ERA in the league. When you shift your attention over to the Nation League, however, things are much closer. Here is a look at the NL. 

If you prefer flat-out talent and performance, ERA is certainly necessary. While it is perhaps the most common and widespread pitching statistic, it is considered by some to be the best. Here are the top five in this category, through Sunday, September 21st.

Pitcher ERA
Tim Lincecum 2.46
Johan Santana 2.65
Jake Peavy 2.77
Ben Sheets 2.98
Ryan Dempster 2.99

Lincecum is dominating this category, and that alone is seemingly giving him the award. While an ERA that low is certainly impressive it shouldn’t be the only thing a voter looks at.

A more in-depth statistic that measures a pitchers’ overall talent is called tRA. It was developed by Graham MacAree. It takes into account a number of things, but can be narrowed down to expected runs and expected outs. What are expected runs and expected outs?

Basically, through analysis of play-by-play data, it is possible to determine a set number for how many outs a particular event brings.

Well, thanks to MacAree and StatCorner.com, here are some charts that explain:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

While only an example, this determines the percentage of outs a specific play causes. For instance, in this example, line drives are turned into outs just over 30% of the time, while outfield fly balls are turned into outs over 80% of the time. This is pretty simple and can be done by anyone with a lot of time on their hands.

Finding expected runs can be a little more challenging, however. Without going into the nitty-gritty, here is another example of expected runs per event:

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In this example, a walk is the same as 33% of a run. tRA is expected runs/expects outs * 27. It can be viewed the same as ERA, or RA/9IP. Here are the five NL leaders so far in 2008:

Pitcher tRA
CC Sabathia 2.62
Tim Lincecum 3.00
Brandon Webb 3.16
Dan Haren 3.34
Derek Lowe 3.39

Controversy rages over whether Sabathia should be included in the NL Cy Young race. He was traded mid-season from the Cleveland Indians to the Milwaukee Brewers, and has put up outstanding numbers after changing teams. Should a player be included in the voting if he has only played half a season with the league? 

Another thing to consider when weighing Cy Young nominees is the value he has to his team. Some may not consider this as important for this award, but others depend on the concept of value when making their decisions. There is a stat called PRC, (pitching runs created), developed by The Hardball Times. The founding principle of this statistic is that a run saved is worth more than a run scored. Using that, you can find a pitcher’s value to his team. Here are the top five so far in 2008:

Pitcher PRC
Tim Lincecum 138
Johan Santana 120
Cole Hamels 110
Dan Haren 108
Ryan Dempster 108

Another way to view the concept of value is to ask the question, “Where would this team be without this player?” Without Lincecum, the San Francisco Giants would be a mess. They aren’t a successful team this year, but without Lincecum leading them every fifth day they could potentially be the worst team in the major leagues.

There are other stats to look at, such as xFIP, WPA, or RZR if you would like to factor in defense. I don’t have the room to give you every one of them here, but please feel free to check them out by yourselves. I would greatly recommend doing so before laying out your support for your choice in any award.

Statistics may not be everything, but they are certainly a starting point in evaluating the NL Cy Young award race.

BallHype: hype it up! Posted in Statistics 1 Comment
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