The Twins and Sox finally got their respective acts together Sunday and beat two of the peskiest teams in recent memory. With nothing to play for but pride, the Indians and Royals tormented the exhausted Sox and Twins in the first two games of three game series, but they couldn’t sustain it into game three. Scott Baker gave the Twins the shut-down start they needed. He allowed just five baserunners in his seven innings, while striking out nine Royals. The bats didn’t produce much of note beyond Mauer’s two run triple, but they didn’t need to. Baker never let the Royals into the game and Jose Mijares, the apparent set-up man for Joe Nathan, and the closer didn’t falter. All in all, Twins pitchers struck out twice as many Royals as they allowed to reach base. Down on the South side, Mark Buehrle was equally effective. He allowed just one run in his seven innings even though he gave up 10 baserunners. Buehrle escaped damage by inducing four double plays and eliminating any threats the Indians tried to surmount. Thornton and Jenks slammed the door shut on Cleveland’s season, and made Freddy Garcia the most important pitcher in baseball at this moment. While the Twins regular season is done, all 162 games of it, the White Sox missed one. The Detroit Tigers had consecutive games rained out at US Cellular Field and were only able to make one of them up, due to a lack of common off days betwen the two teams. Tomorrow, the White Sox will finish their regular season by pitting their best pitcher, Gavin Floyd, against the man he was traded for, namely, Freddy Garcia. Floyd is coming off back to back subpar outings, but he is still the man the Sox want on the hill. If he can hit his spots and contain the emotions which willbe hightened due to the magnitude of this game, Floyd will make life difficult on the potent Tigers offense. Realistically, however, the weight of the game lies on Garcia. This will be just the third start of the season for the 32 year old vet, who missed much of the year with an arm injury, and easily the biggest he’s been in since he defeated the streaking Minnesota Twins exactly two years from Monday. Garcia will need to shut down the White Sox offense, especially Paul Konerko, who has homered in his last three games. The Sox aren’t the only team with something on the line tomorrow, the Tigers may be out of the playoffs, but an extra loss seals their place at the bottom of the AL Central. If they win, they will tie the Royals for fourth. It may not seem like much, but it will likely be enough to keep players like Miguel Cabrera from just going through the motions while checking their voicemail between innings to see if their agent got a tee time for tomorrow morning or afternoon. The longer Garcia can keep his old team off the board, the better the chance his teammates will get behind him and try to win some pride. If the Tigers can shock the Sox at home, the Twins will take the division title going away, like they did in 2006. However, if the Sox can sustain the momentum they produced today, the 2008 season will head into extra innings. Dan Wade, Bleacher Report
What can I say? If you missed the game, you will probably be sorry for the rest of your life.
Given Floyd hasn’t pitched well so far, if the Twins can hold the Sox to 6 runs, they will win the game. It is not likely that happens, but anything can happen.
Posted in Bullpen, Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young, Denard Span, Game Thoughts, Joe Nathan, Justin Morneau
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This increased pressure to win also puts managers on the hot seat when it comes to keeping starting pitchers healthy. It may not be the case that 100 pitches in a game is the magical number limit that means the difference between a starter being healthy or at risk. Really, how convenient of a number is that? But it has become accepted as a common wisdom. If a manager lets a starter throw 130 pitches in consecutive games only to see him go down with an arm injury later in the season, that skipper will be exposed to endless criticism and perhaps unemployment.
One team hit six extra base hits, including three bombs. The other just one. The Twins’ top 4 hitters went 2-17. The Twins’ bullpen gave up runs late in the game once again. Given those three facts, the 9-3 result isn’t a shock, what is shocking is that the race for the division is now closer, not further away. The Twins rode three home runs, two by Jason Kubel, a controversial selection by Ron Gardenhire, and another by Delmon Young to a resounding 9-3 win under Teflon skies. The Twins hit Javier Vasquez and the rest of the Sox pitchers hard, harder than they hit anyone on their 10-game roadtrip, but they also played the smallball style that drives Ozzie Guillen crazy as well as they’ve played all season. The Twins stole bases and executed a perfect suicide squeeze in the fourth inning, but it was all more than they would need. Scott Baker gave up just one run in his seven innings of work. He struck out just 4, but he also kept the Sox off of the bases, or pitched well out of danger. Matt Guerrier gave up a late home run to Ken Griffey Jr., but the game was long in the books before then. As nice as this win was, it was just the first of three critical games. The question which rises from a win like this is: Will the Sox come out like a team possessed tomorrow, trying to make up for such a lopsided loss, or will they begin to second guess their ability to win in the Dome? In the end, only one thing results from this game and that is the fact that the Sox can no longer clinch the division in this series. Everything else remains contingent on how the rest of the series plays out. Nevertheless, this was a huge win for the Twins and sets the stage for another key matchup tomorrow night between Nick Blackburn and Mark Buehrle. Dan Wade, Bleacher Report
There are numerous ways to look at the Cy Young Award, and possibly many different winners based on many different points of view. There are a plethora of ways to discern what characteristics the winner of this award should have. Should actual talent be measured with more weight than performance? How does team success or how valuable a player is factor into the picture? My answer? Take a look from every angle and go from there. The AL Cy Young award is pretty much locked up with the winner being Cleveland Indian Cliff Lee. He has over 20 wins and the lowest ERA in the league. When you shift your attention over to the Nation League, however, things are much closer. Here is a look at the NL. If you prefer flat-out talent and performance, ERA is certainly necessary. While it is perhaps the most common and widespread pitching statistic, it is considered by some to be the best. Here are the top five in this category, through Sunday, September 21st. Lincecum is dominating this category, and that alone is seemingly giving him the award. While an ERA that low is certainly impressive it shouldn’t be the only thing a voter looks at. A more in-depth statistic that measures a pitchers’ overall talent is called tRA. It was developed by Graham MacAree. It takes into account a number of things, but can be narrowed down to expected runs and expected outs. What are expected runs and expected outs? Basically, through analysis of play-by-play data, it is possible to determine a set number for how many outs a particular event brings. Well, thanks to MacAree and StatCorner.com, here are some charts that explain: While only an example, this determines the percentage of outs a specific play causes. For instance, in this example, line drives are turned into outs just over 30% of the time, while outfield fly balls are turned into outs over 80% of the time. This is pretty simple and can be done by anyone with a lot of time on their hands. Finding expected runs can be a little more challenging, however. Without going into the nitty-gritty, here is another example of expected runs per event: In this example, a walk is the same as 33% of a run. tRA is expected runs/expects outs * 27. It can be viewed the same as ERA, or RA/9IP. Here are the five NL leaders so far in 2008: Controversy rages over whether Sabathia should be included in the NL Cy Young race. He was traded mid-season from the Cleveland Indians to the Milwaukee Brewers, and has put up outstanding numbers after changing teams. Should a player be included in the voting if he has only played half a season with the league? Another thing to consider when weighing Cy Young nominees is the value he has to his team. Some may not consider this as important for this award, but others depend on the concept of value when making their decisions. There is a stat called PRC, (pitching runs created), developed by The Hardball Times. The founding principle of this statistic is that a run saved is worth more than a run scored. Using that, you can find a pitcher’s value to his team. Here are the top five so far in 2008: Another way to view the concept of value is to ask the question, “Where would this team be without this player?” Without Lincecum, the San Francisco Giants would be a mess. They aren’t a successful team this year, but without Lincecum leading them every fifth day they could potentially be the worst team in the major leagues. There are other stats to look at, such as xFIP, WPA, or RZR if you would like to factor in defense. I don’t have the room to give you every one of them here, but please feel free to check them out by yourselves. I would greatly recommend doing so before laying out your support for your choice in any award. Statistics may not be everything, but they are certainly a starting point in evaluating the NL Cy Young award race.
Pitcher
ERA
Tim Lincecum
2.46
Johan Santana
2.65
Jake Peavy
2.77
Ben Sheets
2.98
Ryan Dempster
2.99
Pitcher
tRA
CC Sabathia
2.62
Tim Lincecum
3.00
Brandon Webb
3.16
Dan Haren
3.34
Derek Lowe
3.39
Pitcher
PRC
Tim Lincecum
138
Johan Santana
120
Cole Hamels
110
Dan Haren
108
Ryan Dempster
108
Both the Twins and the White Sox have an off-day tomorrow; the Sox shouldn’t have one, but we’ll leave that aside for now. Starting Tuesday, these two rivals both control their own destiny. The next three games are zero-sum games: Win and your opponent loses. No more scoreboard watching, no more threads on forums titled “Indians Finally Do Something Right” or “Thank You KC!”, it’s all come down to these three games. Or has it? Seth Stohs has a breakdown of all the possibilities for the next 6 (or 7) games. Mathematics aside, the Twins need to sweep the Sox to have a shot at the playoffs, but as both the Twins and Sox have found out this season, the Royals and Indians aren’t about to lay down and make the end of the season a foregone conclusion. The Sox have the upper hand, no doubt, but any fan who is willing to write off the next three games as inconsequential must not be familiar with the AL Central: nothing can ever be taken for granted. (See Detroit v. KC, 29 September 2006). The Sox have won just one game this season at the Dome, and none started by anyone besides the departed Livan Hernandez. While, as we’ve all heard from our brokers, past performance is no guarantee of future results, the Sox and Twins would do well to remember the lessons of AL Centrals past: Unless you’re leading after game number 162, it isn’t over. From Dan Wade, Bleacher Report.
In a game where perfection is looked at in such high regard, imperfection is viewed as a plague in baseball.
Prior to August 27th, Glen Perkins was a surprisingly good pitcher. Stuck in the middle of a transition from the bullpen, this 25-year old young man sported an ERA of 3.90 to go with an 11-3 record. He was getting the job done as the fifth starter in the Minnesota rotation.
Then he slowly started to unravel.
He went seven innings against Seattle on the 27th of August, giving up four runs on eight hits as he watched his ERA balloon by six points. Things only went downhill from there. Every start he has made in the month of September has been a disaster. He has given up twenty runs in his last four starts (unearned included). His ERA during that time is a whopping 9.42.
Or should I say, “during this time.” Perkins hasn’t found his paddle yet, and he is clearly up the creek without one.
Last night Perkins was slated to start against the Tampa Bay Rays and lasted all of two outs. He allowed five runs to score, of which only two were earned. You could excuse his most recent poor outing and place the blame on the shoulders of the defense behind him, but the fact of the matter is that his xFIP is a glaring 5.06. That means that when you remove factors beyond Perkin’s control, he has an ERA of 5.06.
Perkins average WPA (Win Probability Added) during his last four games is -.210, meaning that the last four times he has taken the mound the Twins have had lost over 20% of their chance to win. By contrast, the Royal’s Kyle Davies, who is far from consistent, has an average WPA of .038 during his last four starts.
What is causing Perkins to shut down? The most obvious and logical reason is the dramatic increase in workload. While he hasn’t pitched very many innings compared to other starting pitchers, Perkins has already passed his pitch count from last year by over 500. The simple reasoning behind his lack of inspiring starts could very well be the fact that he is overworked.
Even if that wasn’t the case, Perkins will only make one more trip to the mound in 2008, at least in a starter role. Should the Twins find a way to overtake the Chicago White Sox in their division Perkins will almost certainly be moved back to the bullpen, where he can be more effective. The Twins would probably move to a three man rotation in the playoffs; Liriano, Baker, and Slowey.
And I refuse to talk about Blackburn and his horrible starts lately.
- My Viking’s blog is now up and running, and can be found at VikingVigil.com. Be sure to check it out for previews and analysis of the horrible Minnesota Vikings.
- Speaking of the Vikings, they made a quarterback change today. Gus will take the place of Tarvaris starting this Sunday against the Panthers. I heartily disapprove. Jackson is not the problem. Childress is. His playcalling didn’t trick ANYONE. Even the CBS announcers were calling the plays before they happened. That last play before the punt on that last drive was a horrible playcall. Simply horrible. I admit that Jackson will never be a good NFL quarterback, but he shouldn’t have been the scapegoat in this instance. I was as shocked as some of the players when I read about this.
Well, there’s my take. To hear the opposite side, read Dan Wade’s piece at Bleacher Report.
- Joshua Taylor wonders if Twins fans should really be optimistic going into these few games.
- Bleacher Report serves up another piece, this time regarding the bullpen. Zac Quammen offers his insight into what really went wrong in 2008.
- Dan Wade on Justin Morneau and the AL MVP race.
- La Velle E. Neal of the Star Tribune is having a Q&A session at his blog. Be sure to drop by and ask away!
- A great discussion about the Twin’s loss yesterday at Twinkie Town.
- Over the Baggy also has an update on the Twin’s loss that is worth checking out.
- Nick Nelson has his doubts about the 2008 season as well.
Hey guys. I will be out of town until late tonight, but I will try and write something up then. Just as a reminder, you can always email me about anything. If I get enough questions I will do a mailbag post.
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Go Twins!
The highly debated housing issue of the Minnesota Twins has come to a halt. For the next 25 years the new ballpark that will be built for this team will be referred to as “Target Field.” Minnesota only seriously negotiated with one company, Target, throughout the process. The estimated worth of this deal is $100 million over the two and a half decades.
Target Field. Certainly not the worst name possible, but I can think of better. Here are ten better names for the new stadium the Twins will play in starting two years from now.
10. So-Long-Dome-Dog Stadium
9. Land ‘O Lakes Field
8. The Ballpark in the Snow and Cold
7. Homer Hanky Housing
6. Ludefisk Ballpark
5. Norwegian Turf
4. M&M’s Playground
3. Who-Needs-Ya-Santana Stadium
2. Penny-Pinching-Pohlad Park
1. How-’Bout-Them-Gophers Field
Suggest your own!
