The Twins and Sox finally got their respective acts together Sunday and beat two of the peskiest teams in recent memory. With nothing to play for but pride, the Indians and Royals tormented the exhausted Sox and Twins in the first two games of three game series, but they couldn’t sustain it into game three. Scott Baker gave the Twins the shut-down start they needed. He allowed just five baserunners in his seven innings, while striking out nine Royals. The bats didn’t produce much of note beyond Mauer’s two run triple, but they didn’t need to. Baker never let the Royals into the game and Jose Mijares, the apparent set-up man for Joe Nathan, and the closer didn’t falter. All in all, Twins pitchers struck out twice as many Royals as they allowed to reach base. Down on the South side, Mark Buehrle was equally effective. He allowed just one run in his seven innings even though he gave up 10 baserunners. Buehrle escaped damage by inducing four double plays and eliminating any threats the Indians tried to surmount. Thornton and Jenks slammed the door shut on Cleveland’s season, and made Freddy Garcia the most important pitcher in baseball at this moment. While the Twins regular season is done, all 162 games of it, the White Sox missed one. The Detroit Tigers had consecutive games rained out at US Cellular Field and were only able to make one of them up, due to a lack of common off days betwen the two teams. Tomorrow, the White Sox will finish their regular season by pitting their best pitcher, Gavin Floyd, against the man he was traded for, namely, Freddy Garcia. Floyd is coming off back to back subpar outings, but he is still the man the Sox want on the hill. If he can hit his spots and contain the emotions which willbe hightened due to the magnitude of this game, Floyd will make life difficult on the potent Tigers offense. Realistically, however, the weight of the game lies on Garcia. This will be just the third start of the season for the 32 year old vet, who missed much of the year with an arm injury, and easily the biggest he’s been in since he defeated the streaking Minnesota Twins exactly two years from Monday. Garcia will need to shut down the White Sox offense, especially Paul Konerko, who has homered in his last three games. The Sox aren’t the only team with something on the line tomorrow, the Tigers may be out of the playoffs, but an extra loss seals their place at the bottom of the AL Central. If they win, they will tie the Royals for fourth. It may not seem like much, but it will likely be enough to keep players like Miguel Cabrera from just going through the motions while checking their voicemail between innings to see if their agent got a tee time for tomorrow morning or afternoon. The longer Garcia can keep his old team off the board, the better the chance his teammates will get behind him and try to win some pride. If the Tigers can shock the Sox at home, the Twins will take the division title going away, like they did in 2006. However, if the Sox can sustain the momentum they produced today, the 2008 season will head into extra innings. Dan Wade, Bleacher Report
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What can I say? If you missed the game, you will probably be sorry for the rest of your life.
Given Floyd hasn’t pitched well so far, if the Twins can hold the Sox to 6 runs, they will win the game. It is not likely that happens, but anything can happen.
This increased pressure to win also puts managers on the hot seat when it comes to keeping starting pitchers healthy. It may not be the case that 100 pitches in a game is the magical number limit that means the difference between a starter being healthy or at risk. Really, how convenient of a number is that? But it has become accepted as a common wisdom. If a manager lets a starter throw 130 pitches in consecutive games only to see him go down with an arm injury later in the season, that skipper will be exposed to endless criticism and perhaps unemployment.
One team hit six extra base hits, including three bombs. The other just one. The Twins’ top 4 hitters went 2-17. The Twins’ bullpen gave up runs late in the game once again. Given those three facts, the 9-3 result isn’t a shock, what is shocking is that the race for the division is now closer, not further away. The Twins rode three home runs, two by Jason Kubel, a controversial selection by Ron Gardenhire, and another by Delmon Young to a resounding 9-3 win under Teflon skies. The Twins hit Javier Vasquez and the rest of the Sox pitchers hard, harder than they hit anyone on their 10-game roadtrip, but they also played the smallball style that drives Ozzie Guillen crazy as well as they’ve played all season. The Twins stole bases and executed a perfect suicide squeeze in the fourth inning, but it was all more than they would need. Scott Baker gave up just one run in his seven innings of work. He struck out just 4, but he also kept the Sox off of the bases, or pitched well out of danger. Matt Guerrier gave up a late home run to Ken Griffey Jr., but the game was long in the books before then. As nice as this win was, it was just the first of three critical games. The question which rises from a win like this is: Will the Sox come out like a team possessed tomorrow, trying to make up for such a lopsided loss, or will they begin to second guess their ability to win in the Dome? In the end, only one thing results from this game and that is the fact that the Sox can no longer clinch the division in this series. Everything else remains contingent on how the rest of the series plays out. Nevertheless, this was a huge win for the Twins and sets the stage for another key matchup tomorrow night between Nick Blackburn and Mark Buehrle. Dan Wade, Bleacher Report
There are numerous ways to look at the Cy Young Award, and possibly many different winners based on many different points of view. There are a plethora of ways to discern what characteristics the winner of this award should have. Should actual talent be measured with more weight than performance? How does team success or how valuable a player is factor into the picture? My answer? Take a look from every angle and go from there. The AL Cy Young award is pretty much locked up with the winner being Cleveland Indian Cliff Lee. He has over 20 wins and the lowest ERA in the league. When you shift your attention over to the Nation League, however, things are much closer. Here is a look at the NL. If you prefer flat-out talent and performance, ERA is certainly necessary. While it is perhaps the most common and widespread pitching statistic, it is considered by some to be the best. Here are the top five in this category, through Sunday, September 21st. Lincecum is dominating this category, and that alone is seemingly giving him the award. While an ERA that low is certainly impressive it shouldn’t be the only thing a voter looks at. A more in-depth statistic that measures a pitchers’ overall talent is called tRA. It was developed by Graham MacAree. It takes into account a number of things, but can be narrowed down to expected runs and expected outs. What are expected runs and expected outs? Basically, through analysis of play-by-play data, it is possible to determine a set number for how many outs a particular event brings. Well, thanks to MacAree and StatCorner.com, here are some charts that explain: While only an example, this determines the percentage of outs a specific play causes. For instance, in this example, line drives are turned into outs just over 30% of the time, while outfield fly balls are turned into outs over 80% of the time. This is pretty simple and can be done by anyone with a lot of time on their hands. Finding expected runs can be a little more challenging, however. Without going into the nitty-gritty, here is another example of expected runs per event: In this example, a walk is the same as 33% of a run. tRA is expected runs/expects outs * 27. It can be viewed the same as ERA, or RA/9IP. Here are the five NL leaders so far in 2008: Controversy rages over whether Sabathia should be included in the NL Cy Young race. He was traded mid-season from the Cleveland Indians to the Milwaukee Brewers, and has put up outstanding numbers after changing teams. Should a player be included in the voting if he has only played half a season with the league? Another thing to consider when weighing Cy Young nominees is the value he has to his team. Some may not consider this as important for this award, but others depend on the concept of value when making their decisions. There is a stat called PRC, (pitching runs created), developed by The Hardball Times. The founding principle of this statistic is that a run saved is worth more than a run scored. Using that, you can find a pitcher’s value to his team. Here are the top five so far in 2008: Another way to view the concept of value is to ask the question, “Where would this team be without this player?” Without Lincecum, the San Francisco Giants would be a mess. They aren’t a successful team this year, but without Lincecum leading them every fifth day they could potentially be the worst team in the major leagues. There are other stats to look at, such as xFIP, WPA, or RZR if you would like to factor in defense. I don’t have the room to give you every one of them here, but please feel free to check them out by yourselves. I would greatly recommend doing so before laying out your support for your choice in any award. Statistics may not be everything, but they are certainly a starting point in evaluating the NL Cy Young award race.
Pitcher
ERA
Tim Lincecum
2.46
Johan Santana
2.65
Jake Peavy
2.77
Ben Sheets
2.98
Ryan Dempster
2.99
Pitcher
tRA
CC Sabathia
2.62
Tim Lincecum
3.00
Brandon Webb
3.16
Dan Haren
3.34
Derek Lowe
3.39
Pitcher
PRC
Tim Lincecum
138
Johan Santana
120
Cole Hamels
110
Dan Haren
108
Ryan Dempster
108
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