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Daily Reading 8/31

For this very special day of August 31st, and to celebrate the Minnesota victory, I thought I would let you in on some of the greatest stuff I have read in the last day or so. Please be sure to check everything out, nothing is worth skipping!

  • Nino Colla of Bleacher Report has a great post up about the division and wild card races in MLB. He says that they are not over, and openly laughs when someone predicts that “the Rays have pretty much locked up the AL East.”
  • Leslie Monteiro of Twins Killings on Joe Nathan. He says that Nathan is the one reliever that can’t turn in poor results. He needs to continue to dominate if the Twins want a shot at the division.
  • Driveline Mechanics recently put a post together on Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano. While it doesn’t directly relate to the Twins, every true baseball fan should find it as fascinating as I did. Be sure not to skip the comment section, there is a great conversation about different slider/sinker grips.
  • Adam Peterson of Twinkie Town has some nice research about the quality start. He says that Minnesota has a great rotation, and that it’s the “suspect bullpen” that is holding the rest of the team back.
  • For more sabermetric stuff, head on over to Cybermetrics. He has an excellent post up detailing why he thinks that pitchers today are more aggressive and throw inside more than pitchers years ago. His research is impeccable and his conclusion very interesting! Check it out!
  • Joshua Taylor of MNTwinsTalk has the list of September call-ups and his opinions of them up on his site. Be sure to check them out, and chime in with your own opinions!
  • In case you haven’t heard, CC Sabathia nearly tossed a no-hitter today against the Pirates, but ended up giving a controversial single to Andy LaRoche. Granted, if anyone is to break up a no-no, I would want it to be LaRoche, but there is lots of debate regarding whether or not it was a real single. The ball rolled to Sabathia, but he had trouble fielding it, which allowed LaRoche to make it to first. A pitcher making an error to save his own no-hitter? Has that ever happened before?

    It wasn’t ruled as such, and ESPN’s Rob Neyer has his take. In case you don’t have Insider, here is an excerpt:

    When Sabathia first touched the ball, LaRoche was roughly 40 feet down the line; not even halfway yet. So Yost is right about one thing, at least: if Sabathia does pick up the ball cleanly, LaRoche is out. Maybe even by 10 feet. But it’s terribly unfair for Yost to unload on scorekeeper Bob Webb like this, and I think he should be fined.

Have a great day, Twins fans!

The Value of Gomez

Carlos Gomez vs. Torii Hunter. $395,000 vs. $16,500,000. 22 years vs. 33 years.

Does this comparison also show the difference between ‘young and promising’ and ‘good’?

Let’s take a look at both Carlos Gomez and Torii Hunter and compare them:

Carlos Gomez Torii Hunter
.255/.291/.344 .277/.342/.471

Hunter certainly gets the advantage in this matchup. He is a much better batter than Gomez, and if you didn’t know that you haven’t been a Twins fan long enough to watch a single game, have you? Hunter is 33, and with age comes experience. He has faced most pitchers in baseball numerous times and is a very smart player. Gomez, on the other hand, is still getting used to the major league scene and is extremely impatient at the plate.

Carlos Gomez Torii Hunter
.635 OPS .812 OPS

Another statistic in favor of Hunter. No surprise here. When it comes to down to batting, one can safely assume that Hunter is lengths and strides ahead of Gomez - who is eleven years his junior.

Carlos Gomez Torii Hunter
120 SO/ 20 BB 90 SO/ 21 BB

Again, Hunter is a much better bat at the plate. Gomez has gotten better as the season has progressed, but still is very vulnerable to the strikeout. Gomez is the king of first-pitch swings. (Delmon Young is his prince.)

Carlos Gomez Torii Hunter
.943 RZR .889 RZR

RZR, or revised zone rating, is a statistic that measures the proportion of balls hit into a player’s zone that he is able to turn into outs. Gomez gets 94% of batters who hit into his zone out, while Hunter only gets 89%. They both obviously play the same position, so one can look at the numbers without having to adjust anything. Gomez is also extremely faster than Hunter, which plays right into this next statistic:

Carlos Gomez Torii Hunter
87 OOZ 79 OOZ

OOZ, or out of zone, is a measure of how many outs a player makes out of his defined zone. Both play in center field so this statistic can basically be narrowed down to how many balls either one of these players can catch in left or right field. Generally, the more a center fielder has, the faster he is.

Gomez has been an offensive disappointment for the Twins this year, grounding into five double plays and sports a WPA of -2.62. Hunter has a WPA of 0.41.

On the defensive side of the ball, however, Gomez has thrived and has been better than Hunter was last year, and is this year with the Angels.

The bottom line is that Hunter is on the decline of his career, while Gomez is on the brink of a great one. Gomez may not have much offensive value this year, which in turn hurts the Twins, but he makes up for it on defense. And his bat can only improve.

Why the Twins Will Not Make the Playoffs

I originally wrote this up for Bleacher Report, but I thought it would pertain to you guys, being Twins fans and all. Sorry for the lack of faith, but I guess I am transforming into a pessimist right in front of you.

Just to be clear, this is a completely biased article. Do not expect the same “unbiased” opinions and content that the mainstream media will provide, such as a certain four-letter word headquartered in Bristol, Connecticut.

This article is unusual, but in a way you might not expect. I am just about the biggest Twins fan you will ever know. That’s right, I am a Twins fan, but I expect the White Sox to win the AL Central. Here is why…

Experience

This is one of the biggest reasons the Twins will fade. There is a huge difference between a great team and a young team with promise. The Twins fall at the wrong end of this spectrum.

The average age of the Twins is 2.4 years less than that of the White Sox. At first glance that may not seem like much, but it is the difference between a Dustin Pedroia batting .191/.258/.303 and a Dustin Pedroia batting .317/.362/.479.

Statistics aside, there is also postseason and September-stretch-run experience to consider. The White Sox won the World Series in 2005, proving that they were the best baseball team in the entire league, much less the American League Central. Seven position players and three pitchers from that championship team are currently on the White Sox active roster.

Minnesota, on the other hand, have had players from the 1991 World Series die.

Clearly, this Chicago team knows how to play both during this stretch run in September and into October.

Weakness of Schedule

The White Sox do not have an easy September schedule by any stretch of the imagination. It pales in comparison to that of their rivals’, though. Minnesota recently took off on a 14-game West Coast road trip, having been kicked out of the Metrodome because of the Republican National Convention.

So far the Twins are just 4-5 through nine games. Yes, they did split a series against the Angels, but they dropped two-of-three to the lowly Mariners. After four games against Oakland, and three at Toronto the Twins head home for a week. Then it’s off to Baltimore for another marathon road trip.

To say that the Twins are not at their best while on the road would be an understatement. While 46-23 at home, the Twins are 30-36 on the road. The fact that 15 of the next 27 games are away from Minnesota makes the Twins’ road to October very difficult.

Chicago is also a different team away from U.S. Cellular Field. They have the same number of road games ahead of them, but face far less intimidating opponents. Kansas City and New York are both among those who come to the South Side to receive an expected battering.

Bullpens, Bullpens, and Bullpens

Being a Twins fan, I could go on forever about how inept the Minnesota bullpen has been lately. The acquisition of Eddie Guardado is probably the best move that rookie GM Bill Smith has made this year, but that’s not saying much. Smith has basically been sitting on his hands until this point and missed some key opportunities that could have really helped out this Minnesota team; namely, their bullpen.

Obviously, the loss of stud set-up man Pat Neshek to injury has something to do with the drastic decrease in ability this bullpen has experienced. Without him Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Craig Breslow, and even former Twin Juan Rincon have been forced to rotate the responsibility.

None have consistently been great.

Guardado arrived in Minnesota appearing as a 6′0”, 193-pound savior. In reality, he is nothing more than a washed up veteran with a little remaining in his left arm. When compared to the rest of this shambled bullpen his stock clears unreached territory.

There is also talk about the White Sox bullpen being an Achilles heel down the stretch. People have waited for it to collapse like Minnesotas’, but it hasn’t happened yet. In fact, the bullpen has done very well lately - save for one or two instances in the past few weeks.

The bullpen is the key to the division. It all comes down to which relief staff can turn in good outings night in and night out and constantly back up solid appearances from their starting pitchers.

When other elements are considered, such as experience and upcoming schedule, the AL Central can be likened to a race. So far, Chicago is in the lead.

Not a Good Sign

Not much can be said about Thursday’s game. The Twins stunk it up badly. The bullpen squandered another game, and Minnesota is now one and a half games back in the division.

There is no way this team makes the playoffs with the bullpen in as bad shape as it is right now. No way.

That is all I am going to say about that game. Yuck.

Oakland Series Preview

Heading into this four-game series against the Oakland Athletics, Minnesota is just one game behind the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central. No matter which way you slice it, this series is shaping up to be a crucial one.

While Chicago goes on to face Wild-Card leading Boston Red Sox, Minnesota has to deal with below-average Oakland. Sound easy? With Minnesota’s track record against inferior teams, I would say that coming out with a split should be considered a positive thing.

Here is a game-by-game preview of the pitchers Minnesota will face in this upcoming series.

Game One: Nick Blackburn vs. Dana Eveland

Eveland is a rookie 24-year old who has had mixed results in his stint with the Athletics. He has an ERA of 4.30, a 1.48 WHIP, allows 0.45 HR/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 6.27 K/9.

He is a south-paw and has a fastball that is essentially ineffective. Opponents are batting .281 against his fastball, which usually tops out at around 91-92 and remains the same throughout his start. His slider is his best pitch and opposing batters are only hitting .111 against it. He throws it at 82-84 mph and as a result strikes out a lot of batters. Eveland also has solid curveballs and changeups.

As a whole, opponents are batting .231 against Eveland. He likes to throw outside and low to both right- and left-handed batters.

The Twins have had very poor success against unknown hurlers, so let’s hope this is the exception. Minnesota needs to get some baserunners on early and establish themselves as a team to fear.

Game Two: Kevin Slowey vs. Dan Meyer

Dan Meyer is another young pitcher who has made both good and bad starts this year. He has an ERA of 5.95, a 1.373 WHIP, allows 2.28 HR/9, 4.11 BB/9, and 7.3 K/9.

He has just recently been called up from Triple A Sacramento and has limited sample size. He does have three main pitches; a fastball, slider, and changeup. His changeup is proving to be the most effective as opponents are batting only .150 against it. His fastball tops out at 91-93 mph but is hit for a .303 average. His slider is getting roughed up the most as opponents are ripping it for an average of .364.

Opponents are batting .289 against Meyer overall, certainly not good at all. With Slowey’s irradictness on the road lately, expect many baserunners in a potential shootout.

Meyer doesn’t attack hitters and throws the majority of his pitches on the outside of the plate. Like said above, the Twins cannot allow Meyer to look like Rube Waddell. (If you don’t know who Rube is…look him up.)

Game Three: Francisco Liriano vs. Dallas Braden

Braden is a 24-year old youngster already entering his second year with the Athletics. He has also been inconsistent and has compiled an ERA of 4.13, a 1.341 WHIP, allows 0.95 HR/9, 3.01 BB/9, and 5.34 K/9.

He has a decent slider which allows him to strikeout as many batters as he does. Opponents are hitting .167 against his slider. He has a slow fastball that he can only get to 87-89 mph, which opponents are batting .319 against. He also has a curve and a changeup - both of which are marginally effective - in his repetoire.

When everything is included, batters are hitting .288 against Braden. He sticks with the trend of the previous two pitchers and doesn’t throw much inside the plate.

Game Four: Scott Baker vs. Gregory Smith

Smith is another young pitcher, 24-years old with no major league experience prior to 2008. He has an ERA of 3.90, a WHIP of 1.351, allows 0.93 HR/9, 4.19 BB/9, and 5.5 K/9.

Smith is one of the anchors of this extremely young Oakland rotation, and his numbers have proven it. He will be the toughest challege the Twins face during this series. Smith does not have a speedy fastball by any stretch of the imagination - only topping out at 87-89 mph. Opponents are batting .266 against it. His most effective pitch is his changeup, which is being hit at a .197 clip. He also has a solid slider and a decent curve.

Opponents are batting .238 against Smith as a whole.

This entire series is filled with no-name pitchers from Oakland. The most obvious key to this series is to step up and actually get buisness done against a young pitcher. Minnesota roughed up Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and other superstars, but they always seem to struggle against these inferior pitchers. That needs to change if the Twins want any chance at all in any of these games.

All of these pitchers have relatively slow fastballs, but manage to strike out a lot of batters. The veteran position players, such as Mauer, Morneau, Redmond, and even Punto will need to show their younger teammates how to hit against these pitchers.

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