Livan Hernandez was signed by the Twins to take over where Johan Santana left off. While nobody expected him to put up the same numbers as the former Cy Young winner, he came into the 2008 season as the ‘ace’ of this young rotation.
Back in April, the pitching rotation looked like this:
1. Livan Hernandez
2. Francisco Liriano
3. Scott Baker
4. Boof Bonser
5. Kevin Slowey
How does this rotation rank now? Is Livan really the ace we thought he was? Let’s look at some numbers and see how he compares to the other pitchers on this Minnesota Twin’s team.
One of the stats that I personally enjoy studying is WHIP. Walks plus hits per inning pitched. The basic premise of the statistic is how many base runners a pitcher allows on average for every inning pitched. Although it doesn’t measure how many times a pitcher surrenders a run, I still find it helpful.
I chose not to include Liriano in this discussion because he isn’t playing a huge role with the Twins this season. I included Bonser, however. Here is how the pitchers stack up:
Slowey: 1.042 WHIP
Baker: 1.184 WHIP
Blackburn: 1.284 WHIP
Perkins: 1.479 WHIP
Boof: 1.500 WHIP
Hernandez: 1.590 WHIP
Not surpringly, Slowey and Baker are at the top of this list. They have outstanding control, especially Slowey. Blackburn and Perkins are both in the middle, and that also makes sense. Bonser and Hernandez round out the bottom. I expected Bonser to be there, but why does Hernandez have nine wins on the season?
I also enjoy looking at a pitcher’s ERA+. This is coming from Baseball-Reference.com’s glossary:
“The ratio of the league’s ERA (adjusted to the pitcher’s ballpark) to that of the pitcher. > 100 is above average and
Here are the numbers when plugging into Twin’s pitchers:
Baker – 118 – above average
Blackburn – 105 – slightly above average
Slowey – 104 – slightly above average
Perkins – 92 – slightly below average
Hernandez – 76 – Below average
Boof – 63 – Way below average
Once again, Baker, Blackburn, and Slowey are the leaders of the group. Blackburn passed Slowey with his strong start yesterday, but another solid start from Slowey and he’s right back at number two. Perkins is just a tad under average, what is what we expected of him. Bonser is way below average, which also isn’t too huge of a surprise.
The fact that Livan Hernandez is the second worst pitcher in these six is what is concerning. Hernandez has had five “above average” years in his eleven year career. His best, in 2003 with the Expos, was 141. Very impressive. Even just last year Hernandez had an ERA+ of 95, just slightly below average.
What has happened to the solid veteran the Minnesota Twins we thought we signed?
Hernandez is having a pretty terrible year. His winning record is only where it is because of fantastic run support. This pitcher provides a great veteran presence among the younger pitchers, and it is not going unnoticed. However, is it worth the mentorship for these awful starts he is providing us with?
The bottom line is this; Hernandez is no ace. The people who thought he was going to take over the number one role in this rotation after the departure of Santana were dead wrong. Hernandez is proving mentorship to the young players on this team, but is pitching awfully.
Would it be worth it to trade Hernandez for another young pitcher like Edwin Jackson of the Rays? Although it is considered unlikely that Hernandez will be traded, do you think it should happen?
Good job on your research on Livan, Andrew. I think he has done okay at best. He is not the ace of the staff. That’s Scott Baker. What he has done should be good enough. With that said, when he is on the mound, it’s a loss on the schedule. He was signed to be an innings-eater, and he is not doing that.I was bothered that he seemed ho-hum abuot his performance yesterday. He wasted the team’s bullpen for one thing, and second of all, he cost the team the game with the way he pitched in the middle innings.I had it with Livan to be honest with you.
Thanks, Leslie. I agree with him not being the ace, and I agree with you saying that you are through with Livan. I want to trade him, like many others.But you say that he hasn’t been an innings-eater. I think he has. He has gone over six innings every time he has stepped on the mound but five times out of 20. He has one complete game, and eight other instances of going seven or more.But he has given up a boatload of runs. He only has one scoreless appearance, and that was in early April. He has given up three runs or less only ten times, and has given up over five runs seven times.He eats innings, but gives up runs. He is lucky to have a potent offense like this one to provide him with the nine wins he has.
I dedicated numerous words in the spring towards why Livan would be a disappointing acquisition. He performed well in the first quarter of the season and did adequately in the second. The Twins should consider themselves lucky that they are 13-7 in his starts as he is averaging a game score of 41 per start. (Or should we say Livan is lucky considering he is getting 5.9 runs of support per start.) What we’ve seen recently in his performance is a regression to the mean. Whether or not the Twins decide to discard in the near future he is still due $5 million by the Twins. HOWEVER, he could be due an additional $2 million in performance bonuses. Cot’s Contracts does not specifically list the triggers for this bonus, but you can believe that the Twins would consider trading Hernandez (if there are takers) before the $2 million dollar bonus kicks in.
Excellent point. I completely forgot about performance bonuses. Minnesota has significantly decreased the payroll with the absence of both Santana and Hunter, though, so it wouldn’t be as big of a blow as it would have had it happened last year.Still, though, Minnesota doesn’t want to spend an extra $2 million on a guy with an ERA of 5.44. Not if they want to go shopping at all.And yes, I would consider Livan the lucky one.Thanks for the comment!
He does have a ridiculous incentive package, with different bonuses for hitting 150 innings, 200 innings, 15 wins, 20 wins. I have never really understood the signing, but it might have been what was needed at the time.Either way, thanks for doing the research (I am much more pedestrian in my analysis).
Well, let’s hope he either doesn’t hit the 200 inning mark or gets traded before the Deadline. Could Livan really win 15 games? I guess he’s on pace to…Thanks for the comment! I added you to my blogroll.
I said Baker was our ace to begin with. In two starts, when he has enough innings pitched, he’ll be on the AL leaderboard for nearly every rate stat (ERA, BB/9, K/9), he’s quietly putting together a really good season, and I’d love to see what he could do with the confidence he has over the course of a full season.At this point, Livan represents very little except a roadblock to Liriano. He comes in, has his lousy 6 innings, and leaves us in a precarious position. I would trade him for an egg salad sandwich. Then, seeing my distaste for egg salad, I would throw away the sandwich.
Lol, I take it you don’t want anything to do with Livan, do you?