I will be on vacation for the next two weeks. Today’s post comes courtesy of Marty Andrade. Marty writes for both his blog and about the Twins at Bleacher Report. Be sure to check his stuff out, he is one of the best writers out there!

Value Over Replacement Player, or VORP, is a counting stat which awards players runs based on offensive performance compared to the statistical concept of the replacement player. The distribution of talent in baseball is not normal but pyramidal. There are a lot more players at the bottom than at the top. With lots of players available at very low cost who are at the bottom of the talent distribution we can rate the marginal value of major league players compared to these cheap journeyman players.

Six of the Twins players are below the replacement level, here’s my take on what to do with them:

Michael Cuddyer, RF

VORP -.2

There’s no doubt Cuddyer has had a down year. His long term track record suggests he’s playing well below where he should be and he’s on the DL anyway until sometime in August. Cuddyer isn’t someone to cut, but the Twins will have to make some difficult decisions when he comes off the DL. Personally, Cuddyer stays and Gomez gets sent down for some time in AAA before coming back up with the club in September.

Glen Perkins, SP

VORP -.6

You’d think a pitcher with a 4.08 ERA and a 7-3 record would rank somewhere above replacement level, and the truth is he probably does. But, his xFIP (expected fielding independent ERA, a stat which tries to remove bias from other more traditional stats) is a high 4.83 which puts him below the league average (presently 4.17) somewhere near the 80^th percentile among qualified pitchers. Not great, but at age 25 Perkins still has a lot of potential upside. Considering his injury last year and the fact he’s now approaching career highs in innings pitched it might be time to shut Perkins down or throw him into the bullpen. With Francisco Liriano waiting in AAA, shutting Perkins down wouldn’t hurt the Twins at all.

Craig Monroe, DH/OF

VORP -1.3

Monroe did good work as a right handed power hitter who split time with Jason Kubel at DH. Monroe’s .677 OPS the year is actually higher than his work last year. Of course, his OPS is very unimpressive for a DH and despite the fact Monroe brings some right-handed power to the Twins lineup there are other players who could fill Monroe’s shoes better and cheaper. I would DFA the guy but the Twins will probably hold onto him.

Adam Everett, SS

VORP -3.4

Everett has spent much of the season on the DL with arm problems, which has actually lessened the damage. Everett is a great glove, normally, but Twins fans didn’t get to see it earlier this year because Everett was playing hurt. Oh yeah, Everett is absolutely terrible with a bat in his hand. So, he’s so far added nothing to this team this year. His signing can only be called a disaster for the Twins and while I’m sure the Twins will give Everett a roster spot that should be going to a more deserving young player, I would designate him for assignment.

Carlos Gomez, CF

VORP -6.1

A lot of Twins fans fell in love with Gomez’s speed, but they ignored his track record. Well, the Twins front office did the same thing and so did Ron Gardenhire and the end result was having the worst hitter in the league leading off for the Twins almost the entire year. VORP doesn’t take into consideration
defense, and Gomez is the best defensive centerfielder in the majors. I think Gomez could benefit from some time in the minors and could rejoin the Twins in September but the Twins will continue to play him despite his poor performance this year.

Mike Lamb, 3B

VORP -12.4

It’s been a tough season for Mike Lamb, and an even tougher one for Twins fans. Luckily, Lamb has spent most of the season on the bench. Unfortunately, the Twins are paying Lamb and will be paying Lamb millions of dollars over the next couple of seasons whether he performs or not. I would cut my losses and DFA Lamb, but the Twins seem unable to let go overpaid veterans until they’ve help lose 15 or 20 games. Call this another free-agent signing gone nuclear for the Twins.

The importance of this series between the Twins and Sox cannot be overstated, and, tonight, the Twins took the big first step towards eliminating the gap between themselves and a playoff spot.

As Andrew mentioned, the next few days will feature guest bloggers, of which I am one. My name is Dan Wade and I write for Bleacherreport.com.

A few game notes before my final thoughts.

First, congrats to Denard Span on his first major league home run. It was a no-doubt shot off the facing of the upper deck, off a lefty, no less. Even more importantly, it broke any mystique still left from the four game throttling the Twins took in early June. As if it wasn’t obvious enough already, Span isn’t going anywhere when Cuddyer comes back.

Next, big ups to Twins fans for coming out to support the team. After a tough roadtrip (2-4) the Twins came home to 30,000 fans on a Monday night. The Dome has a great energy, much better than US Cell, but only when there are actually people there.

When Jermaine Dye’s foul was called a home run, the anger in the air was palpable, which is as it should be! This series is a huge divisional match-up between the top two teams, to say nothing of the (finally) blooming rivalry between the Sox and the Twins, so fans really should be getting excited to go down to the Dome for games like tonight’s. It hasn’t always been the case, but tonight’s crowd was a great showing for support.

Going into the series, a lot was made of the three lefties the Twins would face, especially given that the Twins two best hitters are southpaws themselves. Morneau and Span, both lefties, hit the home runs tonight and Morneau added an RBI single later.

My hunch is that the Twins hitters care much more about the overall skill of the pitcher than which side the ball is coming from. Morneau is now hitting .300 off of lefties and slugging .446, he is better against right-handed pitchers, but those numbers aren’t bad at all.

Finally, Kevin Slowey was incredible tonight, that is for certain. What was most impressive to me were the things he did beyond the box score.

Slowey didn’t get many low strikes tonight, a pitch he usually needs to get to be effective, but even against a dangerous lineup like the Sox’s he was able to simply adjust his strategy and dominated.

He also got much better as the game went on, which is very encouraging to see from a young pitcher, who is nearing his career max in innings. Slowey never allowed the Sox more than one base runner in an inning and no runner even made it to third. He was dominant from start to finish, but seemed to have better control of the game in the later innings.

Had he bombed, perhaps the Twins would have replaced him with Francisco Liriano, but there is 0 chance of that happening now. Slowey redeemed himself from his terrible outing in Chicago in the biggest way possible.

In closing, it’s easy to diminish a series like this as “just another series”. Big, sure, but not critical.

I disagree with this view.

How the Twins fare in this series will likely be the final determination for the front office as to whether or not they will try to make a deal at the trade deadline. Bill Smith won’t get to see the whole series play out before he has to choose, but losses tonight and tomorrow would certainly have changed the tenor of the clubhouse, as will another win tomorrow.

This series is what baseball is all about; I can hardly believe that the Twins are in a position where we can enjoy games like these at this point in the season, but it is true. If you can, take an evening this week and head down to the Dome and see for yourself.

I will be taking off soon on a 70-hour round trip back to the Midwest. It will take two weeks, and we will visit all of our relatives and friends before coming back and starting school again.

I apologize, but it’s not like there won’t still be great content here.

At least three other bloggers are going to help me out during this stretch, posting their thoughts on whatever is going through their minds about the Twins. I’m sure you guys will enjoy them as well.

As far as today’s game, the Twins won thanks to a ninth-inning rally sparked by Alexi Casilla. Nick Blackburn had an amazing start today, going seven innings giving up only one run. He left with the lead, but didn’t earn the win thanks to Dennys Reyes, who gave up a run in the eighth.

Still, a solid victory for the Twins which was highlighted further by the White Sox loss today to the Tigers. The Twins are now 2.5 games back and a four-game series with the White Sox is about to begin. Can I safely say that this series is crucial? I just hope I can keep up to date from a hotel room.

Also, as I teased earlier this week, I will have a Q&A with a Twin’s minor leaguer posted sometime later this week or early next week. Like I said before, this mystery player is a former first round pick of the Twins. You don’t want to miss it.

Be sure to keep coming back to Twins Fix these next two weeks! There should still be daily updates and great analysis!

Go Twins!

I was unable to watch tonight’s game against the Indians because I was attending the Tucson Sidewinder’s (Triple A Arizona) ten inning victory over the Omaha Royals.

It was a good night for all of us, I see. I came home with two foul balls after a great game and the Twins also racked up the points. From what I hear, though, the pitching wasn’t the best it has been.

Many deals have already been made before the trade deadline. Joshua Taylor gives you his thoughts on the trade that brought Xavier Nady to New York. Be sure to check it out!

Also, I wrote up a piece at Bleacher Report about Rockies pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez. If you have the time, be sure to check it out and tell me what you think.

Tomorrow night I will be taking off to the Midwest area to visit some family. I will be gone for two weeks, but be sure to keep coming because there will be numerous guest bloggers during that time.

Feel free to discuss the game in the comment thread below and let me know what I missed.